Leadership Problem Solving Creates More Problems than it Solves. The Ambiguity Advantage

1. Leadership Problem Solving Creates More Problems than it Solves. The Ambiguity Advantage David Wilkinson Centre i RAF Leadership Conference Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

2. The Book Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

3. Ambiguous Decisions • A look at problem solving success in ambiguous situations • 161 Leaders in 42 organisations • 2001 – 2007 Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

4. Ambiguity Where the problem or solution or path is not known Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

5. Leader’s Problem Solving 42 organisations between 2001 – 2007 Wilkinson 2007 Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

6. Leaders Views • 96.2% (155 of 161) of leaders said that their problem solving was successful. • Any failures they said, came from somewhere or someone else. Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

7. Every one else’s view • 81% of leader problem solving failed / got ditched… or result in unintended consequences so severe that they were worse or as worse as the original problem. Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

8. 8 out of 10 cats • 8 out of 10 leadership decisions / solutions didn’t resolve the issue* • Less than 4% of leaders considered that their thinking and actions contributed to the failure situation Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

9. Why? Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

10. Two Faced Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

11. Processing Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

12. The Ambiguity Pretzel Increasing certainty / clarity / knowledge & order Increasing ambiguity / risk & uncertainty Control models Risk Uncertainty & Vagueness Emergent / complexity models The Paradox of Certainty Close coupled C & E Total Ambiguity Paradox Loose coupled C & E Certainty / minimum ambiguity Chaos Breakdown of relationship > Cause & Effect Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

13. Abmgiiuty and our brinas I tihnktaht you shulod be alberaedtihswihuott too mcuhtrubole. It is vreystnargetahtwehn you trunaournd the cneterletetrs of wrods you can stlilraedtehmeailsy. Amgiibutygtescaclenled out by the biranwehn it is clsoe to a reiltay we unredtsnad. Tihs can be a prbolem as wlel as a uesuflphnemonena. Wahthaepnps is taht our biran makes, waht is knwon as ‘brdigniginrefneecs’, It lokos for paetrtns and tehn tires to mkaesesne of waht it fidnsbsaed on waht we aleradykonw. Hoewveer it can go worgng! Esepiclaly in totlaly new siuttaoins. The biranwlil try to imopse a ptaetrnwhcih is eihtersipmlyoudttaed or jsutplianwrnog. Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

14. Rty siht…. I kihtn hatt shti udlosh eb a elltit erdarh ot edra sa I avhe exdim het teterls pu orme hhciw sakem ti a tol daherr ot erda. Hawt hist emns si hatt mose eoppel illw eigv pu ude ot eht velle fo itimagyub ti treacse ofr emth. Dod s’itn ti ? Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

15. Psychological Inertia Aka paradigm paralysis Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

16. Paradigm Paralysis The fog of war lessons learnt by Robert S. McNamara Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

17. Modes of Leadership Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

18. Technical Leadership (Mode 1) • Good at • Following ‘characterised’ procedures • Making incremental changes • Postponing reward • Staying safe • Standardising procedures • Leading from the front • Detail • Struggles with • Risk & Ambiguity • Innovation • Diversity • Non standard thinking • Empathy and emotional intelligence • Co-operation and collaboration • Strategic concepts (big picture) Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

19. Mode 1 responses to Ambiguity • There is only one certainty • Be certain about your certainty • Do something else • Displacement behaviour • Flight behaviour • If in doubt fool yourself • Denial • Create a new certainty Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

20. Cooperative Leadership (Mode 2) • Good at • Minimising risks • Using others as resources • Team focus • Solving cooperative problems • Democracy • Listening • Task Focus • Diversity • Struggles with • Taking risks • Conflict • Weighing up the facts • Competing values and ideas • High innovation • Lack of change • Too much change Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

21. Mode 2 responses to ambiguity • Heightened awareness of negative emotional reactions to ambiguity • Moves to reduce discomfort • Conflict = discomfort • Tries to reduce ambiguity and conflict by • Simplification • Appeals to cohesion and loyalty (the team) • Cooperative strategies • Behavioural frameworks etc. that promote compliance • Creation of rules / policy – reduction of uncertainty Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

22. Collaborative Leadership (Mode 3) • Good at • Aligning values • Equality • Meetings • Relationships • Feel good • Empathy • Emotional Intelligence • Consensus • Exploring risk • Greater levels of ambiguity • Struggles with • Leadership • Lack of productivity • Difficult people • Individualists • Breaking out of COWDUNG • Lack of change • Non conventional thinking at first Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

23. Mode 3 reactions to ambiguity • Recognise the ambiguity • Adapt to the situation • Interest in change (of others) • Will seek recourse to the consensus of the group/team • Will try to ‘solve’ ambiguity to restore the natural order of things Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

24. Generative Leadership (Mode 4) • Good at • Working with Ambiguity • Complexity • Finding opportunity • Agility and change • Speed • Innovation • Focus • Using experts • Defining problems • Emotional Resilience • Learning and unlearning – shifting paradigm • Struggles with • Working with certainty • Lack of change & stability • People who need time • To understand • Change • Produce things • Procedures, policy and rules • Incremental change • Lack of speed and agility • ‘Small talk’ Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

25. Mode 4 reactions to ambiguity • Very happy with the existence of ambiguity – worries if it’s not present • Looks for emergent properties and opportunities inherent in situation • Spends lots of time on problem definition and trying to discover reality • Uses diversity of thinking and approaches to gain the advantage Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

26. A problem of definition The elevators are too slow Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

27. Frame 1 Technical - Make it faster Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

28. Frame 2 Co-operate – what solutions? Best – pulley gearing Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

29. Frame 3 Collaboration –many Project teams many inventions Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

30. Frame 4 • Most people spend 90% of effort working on solution • Generative spend 20% of effort working on solution. • 80% on the problem definition Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

31. Albert Einstein “It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer” “I spend most of my time just trying to find out what the problem is.” Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

32. Problem definition The elevators are too slow They say that the elevators are too slow They saythink that the elevators are too slow Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

33. They think the lift is too slow • Install mirrors - $38 • Level progress indication • Bigger compartments Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

34. Frames • Thinking frame = how we see • How we see = what we see • What we see = the problems we perceive • The problems we perceive = the problem we solve Centre i inspire  innovate  influence

35. inspire@centrei.orgwww.centrei.org David Wilkinson Centre I Centre i inspire  innovate  influence