Dr Paul Greenhalgh

1. Dr Paul Greenhalgh Reader Property Economics – University of Northumbria Spring Conference, Barnsley 2012

2. ACES Spring Conference Barnsley 10 May 2012 Investigating the impact of vacant offices buildings on town and city centres in the U.K. Dr Paul Greenhalgh Reader in Property Economics School of the Built and Natural EnvironmentNorthumbria University

3. Working with us • access our expertise: • bimacademy • Virtual NewcastleGateshead • URBaNE • access our students • develop your people • network with us • research & development • Knowledge Transfer Partnerships • consultancy

4. School of the Built and Natural Environment at Northumbria University - in figures • 21 undergraduate programmes • 20 post graduate programmes • over 50 PhD students • over 150 academic staff • over 4000 students • 80 nationalities represented

5. Professionally accredited programmes

6. Northumbria University ACES prize

7. bimacademy – with Ryder Architecture BIM Academy – with Ryder Architecture Cross-section of Manchester Library

8. bimacademy aims to: Support the supply chain through advice, training and resource Promote collaborative working Innovation in partnership with industry Independence and impartiality Evidence based design, delivery and operation BIM to be used for procurement and management of all new public sector projects BIM enabled specification tool ‘NBS Create’ launched at Ecobuild 2012 National BIM library now live Website: www.bimacademy.ac.uk Email: info@bimacademy.ac.uk

9. Virtual NewcastleGateshead? Collaborative 3D digital model of the urban core areas of both Newcastle and Gateshead.

10. Virtual NewcastleGateshead Expanded 3D model coverage from Scotswood and Blaydon in the west to Byker and Gateshead Stadium in the east. Being used in the urban planning process to support development of Gateshead Quays, Science Central, Gateshead Boulevard, Trinity Square, Grey Street Potential to be used in a variety of applications Website: www.virtualng.co.uk Contact :vng@northumbria.ac.uk

11. Are you URBaNE? Who is URBaNE? a new multidisciplinary group of academics and practitioners with a background in, experience of, and passion for urban matters. What do we do? We conduct both funded and unfunded academic research projects and offer a consultancy service to external clients in the field of urban regeneration and renewal.  We have developed a suite of tools that may be employed for policy and project appraisal.  We host an archive of material produced by both the group and external partners and organisations that have been active in the North East of England. Web: www.northumbria.ac.uk/sd/academic/bne/research/archbeplanningresearch/urbane/

12. Investigating the impact of vacant office buildings on town and city centres in the U.K. Background: • ACES and Northumbria seeking to build closer working relationship • initiate a project around which this could be achieved • problem of vacant town/city centre offices identified by Brian Ablett • we have expertise of modelling commercial property markets using GIS (see RICS FiBRE paper 2010) • appointment of Ernie Jowsey as Professor in Property Economics • coincided with call for PhD studentship proposals

13. Vacant Office buildings - context • accelerating functional and economic obsolescence of commercial buildings • poor market conditions - weak demand within office market and for alternative uses such as residential and leisure • constrained lending for property (re)development/refurbishment • Public sector contraction and rationalisation: ‘the Government does not need more office space ....... we need fewer, better workplaces’ Francis Maude 2011 • currently 222,000 sq m of vacant offices in the civil estate (NAO Jan 2012) • if staff numbers fall and space per person is reduced to 10 sq m, this figure would rise to 560,000 sq m by 2020 (NAO 2012) • after April 2018 it will be unlawful to relet commercial property with an EPC rating below E (approx 20% of stock according to GVA 2012)

14. Savills 2012

15. Specific problems • overhang of vacant secondary office stock particularly acute in towns and cities in the north of England due to weak demand & public sector cuts • causing blight and negative externalities in their immediate proximity and impact across wider property market • represent high embodied energy in their production and demolition/replacement • constitute a wasted economic resource (both land and buildings) • generate high holding costs for landlords • refurbishment and redevelopment options not commercially viable • undermines efforts of local authorities to promote and encourage sustainable development

16. Research Questions • How much vacant office stock is there? • Where is it? What type of buildings? • What impact on the local commercial property market and wider economy of town and city centres? • Do these vacant buildings have a viable future? • If not, what is going to happen to them? • How are landlords and investors responding to the challenges? • What options are available to rehabilitate such buildings?

17. Searching for solutions • international academic literature on office adaptability (see Hilde Remoy et al 2011) • market conditions becoming more favourable for office to residential change of use (see Urban Land Institute 2011) • secondary investment market offers potential upside compared to prime • learn from asset pathfinders & GPU property vehicle pilots (London & Bristol) • develop parametric BIM models of office types to appraise rehabilitation options • Examples and case studies: • Century Buildings, Manchester • Angel Building, London • RICS Ska Rating for sustainable fit outs

18. Northumbria PhD Studentships • Advertised April 2012 School of the Built & Natural Environment • Short-listing May 2012 • Principal Supervisor Professor Ernie Jowsey • PhD student appointed to start summer 2012

19. Phase 1 – scoping study • Review policy documents from government and academic studies of the legacy of vacant office buildings both in UK and internationally • Capture the scale and extent of office property vacancy in town and city centres in the UK using commercial property market data already in the public domain (e.g Focus; EGi; VOA; commercial surveying practices; GPU; LA’s etc.) • Offer spatial representation of the problem using GIS and attempt to characterise buildings using classification system (to be developed)

20. Phase 2 - primary data collection • exploration of the complex conditions within which office buildings exist, using case studies predominantly in the north of England and Scotland • potential for focus groups and delphi method (expert) multi-phase qualitative data collection • particularly interested in how landlords and investors are responding to the challenge • identification and evaluation of options for tackling vacant office buildings conditional on circumstances • develop decision making model to appraise options • potential links in to both 3D/VNG and BIM

21. How can you help? • Original idea for the research was suggested by ACES chair so we assume that ACES will support the research • Does your authority have a problem of high levels of vacant offices in major settlements? • If so, what is it doing about it? • Collectively you have huge practical expertise, market knowledge and networks of contacts • What data, both quantitative and qualitative, are you aware of that could make a contribution to our research? • Can you offer a case study or scoping interview? • Would you be prepared to participate in delphi method survey? • Can you donate some time and resources to the study?

22. Please contact paul.greenhalgh@northumbria.ac.uk tel: (0191) 2274593 Linkedin: uk.linkedin.com/pub/paul-greenhalgh/18/290/800 Professor Ernie Jowsey tel: (0191) 2437107 ernie.jowsey@northumbria.ac.uk Barry Errington, Employer Engagement Manager: tel: (0191) 2273933 barry.errington@northumbria.ac.uk

23. Any questions?

24. Dr Paul Greenhalgh Reader Property Economics – University of Northumbria Spring Conference, Barnsley 2012