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Helsingør - 4 June 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses

Helsingør - 4 June 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses. Scope of the study. Phase I Overview of current energy situation Scenarios for the future regional energy system Phase II Detailed scenario analyses of the electricity and district heating markets

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Helsingør - 4 June 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses

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  1. Helsingør - 4 June 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses

  2. Scope of the study • Phase I • Overview of current energy situation • Scenarios for the future regional energy system • Phase II • Detailed scenario analyses of the electricity and districtheatingmarkets • Prioritized list of regional projects/polices to promote the region as a sustainable region • Phase III • Develop strategies for deployment • Regional knowledge sharing in the field of sustainable energy • Outline the possibilities for the industry to be frontrunners in the development of new energy technologies Medio 2008 Medio 2009

  3. Nuclear Bio Hydro GAS OIL Hydro Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Hydro Nuclear Bio Oilshale GAS OIL Coal Gas Wind Hydro, Gas Expectedhigheconomicgrowth Nuclear Coal Nuclear Wind Coal

  4. Characteristics of the region * Including only North East Germany and North West Russia

  5. Characteristics of the region

  6. Howcan the energy and transport systems in the region develop to achieve: 50 % reduction of CO2 emissions in 2030 compared to 1990 50 % reduction in oilconsumption in 2030 compared to 2005

  7. Two scenarios for 2030 Small-tech CCS Nuclear power Biomass Improvedfueleconomy Electric vehicles Biofuels Big-tech • Energy savings • Districtheating - CHP • Biomass • Wind, wave, solar • Improvedfueleconomy • Electric vehicles • Modal-change • ICT Energy Transport

  8. Results

  9. Results

  10. Scope of the study • Phase I • Overview of current energy situation • Scenarios for the future regional energy system • Phase II • Detailed scenario analyses of the electricity and districtheatingmarkets • Prioritized list of regional projects/polices to promote the region as a sustainable region • Phase III • Develop strategies for deployment • Regional knowledge sharing in the field of sustainable energy • Outline the possibilities for the industry to be frontrunners in the development of new energy technologies Medio 2008 Medio 2009

  11. Balmorel model • The Balmorel model determines based on market principles and regulation: • generation of electricity and heat, distinguished by technology and fuel • consumption of electricity and heat • electricity transmission • emissions • prices • optimal investments in generation capacity given framework conditions and cost data • costs and benefits of alternative scenarios The model is open source: www.balmorel.com

  12. Basic model contains 17 areaswith transmission constraints • For the purpose of thisstudy data for Russia is included in the model • North-WestRussia • Karelia • Kola • Pskov • KaliningradArkhangelsk • St. Petersburg incl . Leningrad • Novgorod • Komi Data is obtained from publiclyavailablesources DE_CS

  13. Baseline scenario 2010-2030 • Fuelpricesaccording to International Energy Agency - 120 $/bbl in 2030 • Targets • 2020: 21 % CO2 reduction, 20 % RE (national targets) • 2030: 38 % CO2 reduction (50 % compared to 1990), 20 % renewableenergy (national targets) • Model decides new investments in generation capacityexceptnuclear and hydro power • Country specificrenewableenergysources

  14. Development nuclear power

  15. Selected DRAFT results Baseline: Investments

  16. Selected DRAFT results Baseline: Electricity generation

  17. Selected DRAFT results CO2-emissions (Mill. tonnes) 1990 2005 50%red 21%red 38%red

  18. Selected DRAFT results CO2 and RE prices CO2-price The cost in the model of additionallyreducingone ton of CO2 (maybeinterpreted as an estimate of the CO2-price) RE-price The cost in the model of additionallyincreasing RE generation by one MWh (maybeinterpreted as an estimate of the cost of a RE certificate)

  19. Sensitivity scenarios • Regional renewable energy target • Increased energy efficiency (lower demand for electricity, particularly for heating) • Strong interconnectors • Stronger CO2 target in 2020 (30%@COP15) • Case: Integrated off-shore grid at Kriegers Flak

  20. Selected DRAFT results Regional renewable target Basedon the model analyses it willbepossible to quantify the benefits of a common a RE framework

  21. Selected DRAFT results Benefits of increasing thetransmission grid in the region Connections linking the thermal power based systems in Poland and Germany and the Nordic power system dominated by hydro power have the highest value. Strengthening connections between the Baltic countries and Scandinavia also appear attractive. Further analyses are needed €/MW capacity, in 2020, in the baseline scenario

  22. Preliminary observations • The targetsset-outcanbeachieved given the RE resourcesavailable(strongertargetscouldbemet) • Wind power appears to be the most cost-efficientmeasure(however more detailed analyses required) • Benefits of increasingstrengthening the transmission grid in the region • Benefits of cooperationonachieving RE targets

  23. Scope of the study • Phase I • Overview of current energy situation • Scenarios for the future regional energy system • Phase II • Detailed scenario analyses of the electricity and districtheatingmarkets • Prioritized list of regional projects/polices to promote the region as a sustainable region • Phase III • Develop strategies for deployment • Regional knowledge sharing in the field of sustainable energy • Outline the possibilities for the industry to be frontrunners in the development of new energy technologies Workshop Energizing the sustainable growth in the Region Kaliningrad 10-11 June 2009 Medio 2008 Medio 2009

  24. Recommendations • Develop a shared vision A Green Valley of Europe in order to mobilize the strong traditions in the region for public-private co-operation. • Establish an energy stakeholder forumthat includes different cross-border, cross-sector and cross-level actors. Not least the private sector needs a larger international platform in order to go beyond small markets. • Develop regional projects which could benefit the region as a showcase for comprehensive and sustainable energy systems including R&D and demonstration activities. • Develop a common interconnector strategy for the region to allow for a higher level of renewable energy penetration including from offshore wind power. • Launch an action plan for efficient and sustainable heating, involving the larger cities in the region and the district heating companies. • Establish a common regional training programme to strengthen the capacities in energy planning. Such a programme should aim at developing the exchange of experiences and best practices among officials at local and national level.

  25. Thankyou

  26. Analyses (-50 % comp. to 1990) Leading to a synthesis scenarios for the region based on the outcome of the analyses and subsequent discussions of the results with key stakeholders in the region

  27. Fuel prices • In accordance the latest projection of the International Energy Agency Long-term oil price: App. 120 USD/bbl Biomass/waste: -2,5 to 12 €/GJ

  28. * excl. North West Russia

  29. RE targets 2020 • Assuming, that the absolute share of renewable energy in electricity consumption should increase 1.5 times more than the overall share of renewable energy.

  30. Electricity demand

  31. Wind power potentials

  32. Basedon the model analyses it willbepossible to quantify the benefits of a common a RE framework

  33. Selected DRAFT results To the consumerpriceshouldbeadded to the cost of RE subsidies/certificates

  34. Selected DRAFT results Benefits of increasing thetransmission grid in the region €/MW capacity, in 2020, in the baseline scenario

  35. Next steps • Final report by June 2009 • Presentation of results at • WS: Energizing the sustainable growth in the Region, Kaliningrad, 10-11 June • 4 June, Copenhagen, Foreign Ministers • Phase III • Unfold the potentials identified in the scenario analyses through stakeholder activities and further analyses • A synthesis scenario for the BSR • Cooperation with Nordic Energy Perspectives Medio 2008 Medio 2009

  36. Comments to BSPC report • Involve the stakeholders in the region • Establishconcreteactivitiesonspecifictopics • Opportunities for CHP in the bigcitiesaround the Baltic • Common plan for off-shorewind in the BS • Action plan for the utilization of municipalwaste and biogas for energypurposes • Information and communicationtechnologies to replacephysicaltransportation • Mention Kriegers Flak as a showcase for the BalticSea Region • Education of the new energy planners • Highlight the role of the cities as key to the implementation of energy and climatepolicies

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