DZUD

1. DZUD MULTINATIONAL PLANNING AUGMENTATION TEAM (MPAT) WORKSHOP CHINGGIS KHAAN HOTEL ULAANBAATAR, MONGOLIA 02 to 08 August, 2003 By Marshall Silver Senior Technical Advisor UNDP Disaster Risk Reduction Program Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

3. Mongolian Geography and Disasters • The key points of Mongolian Geography: • Mongolian territory is relatively high in altitude • Like North Central Colorado, USA • Climate has a major impact on the duration of the growing season • Mongolia occupies a critical ecological / climatological transition & zone • The great Siberian taiga forest • The Central Asian steppe, • The Altai mountain range • The Gobi Desert

4. What is DZUD? Mongolian word meaning severe winter conditions Dzud is a Mongolia-specific winter disaster, which undermines the welfare and food security of the herding community through large-scale death and debilitation of livestock

5. Major Dzuds in the Last 60 years

10. Long Term Contributing Factors 1990 Transition from Socialist Centrally Planned Economy to Free Market System • Livestock herds privatised. • Too many small, economically non viable herds created • Limited support for private herders: • Limited veterinary services for animals - parasite loads increase • Uncontrolled breeding. Quality of animals decline. • Livestock levels grow and herd composition changes to environmentally unsustainable levels causing progressive depletion and degradation of pastures. • No risk planning at any level of the system. • Wells not maintained, break down • Stock congregate in areas where there is water, further aggravating pasture degradation.

11. The Cold Statistics – Year 2000 Dundgobi Aimag • December 1989: • 1.4 million livestock • December 1998: • Estimated livestock population: 2.2 million • 37 % growth on 1989 • December 1999 animal census: • 2.1 million remain • February 2000: • 1.7 million livestock still alive • June 2000: • An estimated 1.2 million will survive.

12. The Human Cost in the TownshipsFamilies Split • Herding families leave behind in the soum townships the elderly to care for the school age children. • They leave enough dried meat and milk products to last them through winter. • This is supplemented by the meager pension to buy flour, soap and other essentials. • Due to government cash flow problems, Pension payments are often delayed.

13. Grandmother caring for school age children in the aimag centre. She is waiting for her pension.

14. The Human Cost in the Schools • Children miss school because they lack transport or because they have to care for animals • Parents have no money to buy stationery • Overcrowding of school dormitories. • Students can’t concentrate because they are worried about their parents and their herds. • Schools have lost their own herds of animals. • Teachers have lost their animals.

15. The school dormitory was built for 80 - it now accommodates 145. Washrooms, like this one, have been converted into bedrooms. Even so, children have to sleep two to a bed.

16. Because of the overcrowding, these two brothers share this single bed. They couldn’t join their parents for Tsagaan Sar, because they have taken the animals too far away. They spent the holiday in the school dormitory.

17. The Human Cost in the Countryside • Most of the cows die. • Most of the horses disappear. Some will return, but most have died. • Sheep and goats are dying. They will die in large numbers when the lambing season begins. • People spend many hours in the bitter cold searching for missing livestock. • Without transport, people cannot access health services.

18. The most vulnerable stay put, hoping for the best. Those with many young children and those who lack transport.

19. Before the Dzud, this family had 300 sheep and goats. Now they have 70. These sheep are too weak to stand. They will be dead by the end of the week.

20. With her last two bales of hay she tries to feed the few remaining stock

21. Her daughter tries to get a goat on its feet. It is too weak to stand unaided.

22. This family is lucky. They still have two horses and a cow. Note the horses’ short tails. The cow is so hungry it nibbles their tails.

23. The one remaining cow from a herd of twenty.

24. “When the animals die, we comb out the cashmere and skin them. We don’t get much for the skins. They are poor quality because the animals are so wasted.”

25. “The sheep are now dying so rapidly we can’t keep up”

26. “We thought the shelter would protect them.”

27. A safe haven.

28. “My baby is two months old, and I don’t have enough breast milk to feed her. Normally I would give her goat’s milk, but now we have no goats . . . “

29. . . or cows . . .

30. . . . but we still have a horse”.

31. Most of the horses disappeared. Some may return, but many have died. This one perished beside a frozen, broken well.

32. “Most of the cows are dead . . . “

33. . . . and removing carcasses from around the soum is hard work”

34. IMMEDIATE NEEDS - LIVESTOCK • From the Mongolian perspective, saving the remaining livestock is the priority • Fortified animal feed to save as many as possible of the healthiest livestock which still survive • It must reach the affected areas by the middle of March for it to have any impact • If it is delayed beyond that, it will be too late. The animals will be already dead. • Feeding must be targeted to the strongest animals with the best chance of survival • Feeding must be combined with veterinary inspection AND treatment

35. From a Mongolian perspective, saving the remaining animals is the priority. Some hay and fodder can get through, but the quantities need to be large to have any impact.

36. LONG TERM NEEDS - LIVESTOCK • Selective subsidised restocking as far as possible over summer • If possible with older animals NOTE: There are many constraints to restocking. For example, animals must be adapted to the areas they are moved to. • Improve access to water supply by repairing old wells and building new ones • In an ecologically responsible manner • Improve veterinary services • Strengthen supplementary feeding strategies, risk management, and supplementary feed production • Develop an insurance system for the livestock sector

37. IMMEDIATE NEEDS - PEOPLE • People begin to run out of food about the end of April • Widespread food aid will be required to prevent starvation • Food assistance will need to continue at least through next winter, possibly longer • Urgent expert nutritional assessment to determine total food requirements including essential micronutrient supplementation (vitamins, iron, iodine) • Special attention must be given to those who are especially vulnerable such as pregnant & lactating women, young children, and the elderly • Ensure access by displaced families to medical services • Ensure supply of essential medicines (especially antibiotics) for treating respiratory tract infections

38. LONG TERM NEEDS - PEOPLE • Food aid will need to extend through winter • At least for the most vulnerable families in Dzud affected regions • Assess fuel requirements for cooking and heating for next winter • Assess clothing and footwear requirements for next winter • Ensure supply of essential medicines and equipment at rural health services • Assess impact of the Dzud on the education of children • Assist Government to monitor and evaluate the health and social impacts of the Dzud on the people in affected regions

39. IMMEDIATE NEEDS - LOGISTICS • Government to establish principles and criteria for the distribution of aid, and to make these public at all levels • Provide aid to households according to individual need and current location, rather than on aimag of origin • Develop coordination mechanism among Government, Donors, NGOs to share information on the development of the emergency and the delivery of aid • Strengthen capacity of General Department for Disaster Protection, State Emergency Commission, and Ministries to monitor developments and to better target relief operations • Organise joint procurement to maximise the efficiency of aid delivery • Government to review its delivery mechanism to maximise its timeliness and transparency

40. LONG TERM NEEDS - LOGISTICS • Establish e-mail network between UB and aimag centers to speed the transmission of information • Assist Government Agencies to develop surveillance and “early warning systems” • Develop Government capacity to analyse statistical data and incorporate the information in government policies