WINS Workshop Gordon Bell Microsoft Research

1. WINS WorkshopGordon BellMicrosoft Research February 24-25, 1998 Disclaimer: The author is here to learn about WINS. As such any advice is offered with the hope that it may be useful in developing such an industry.

2. Outline • Cyberspace: the big picture • Moore’s Law; Bell’s corollary on computer class formation … because you may be creating a class • System on a chip: a basis for WINS • WINS & their apps

3. Cyberspace: top view

4. Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Body Continent Region/ Intranet Cars… phys. nets Home… buildings Campus World Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

5. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information • Coupling to all information and information processors • Pure bits • Bit tokens • State: places, things, and people • State: physical networks

6. Content Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space Computation Cyberization Communication

7. Moore’s Law & Bell’s Corollary on Computer Class Formation

8. 60%= Exas 40%= Petas 20%= Teras Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / yearin Mops, Mbytes, Gbytes/10 1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E+6 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

9. Mainframes (central) Log price WSs PCs (personals) ?? Time Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance Mini 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

10. Bell’s law of computer class formation to cover Cyberspace • New computer platforms emerge based on chip density evolution • Computer classes require new platforms, networks, and cyberization • New apps and content develop around each new class • Each class becomes a vertically disintegrated industry based on hardware and software standards AFTER IT FLAILS AROUND 5-10 YEARS

11. Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers 1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers 100$: pocket/ palm computers 1,000$: portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle) 100,000,000$: national centers Super server: costs more than $100,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports

12. 1OM Computer Classes Scalables, built from PCs and SANS 1M = 100K VC 10K 1K TVC TC 100 10 Wallet Home PC Mini-super Palm top Super WS Mainframe Video game Minicomputer Desktop PC PT program. PDA/Camera Large, Scalable Prof. Workstation Scalable Multi- Notebook/Laptop Supercomputer Handhld game

13. “The Computer” Mainframe tube, core, drum, tape, batch O/S direct > batch Mini & Timesharing SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare O/S terminals via commands POTS PC/WS micro, floppy, disk, bit-map display, mouse, dist’d O/S WIMP LAN Web browser, telecomputer, tv computer PC, scalable servers, Web, HTML Internet Platform, Interface, & Network Computer Class Enablers Network Interface Platform

14. A next generation based on Microsystems

15. Predictable computers • All kinds of not very interesting network (server-based) computers • PC substitutes for internet access • Telephone-based internet access • Television set-based internet access • Home Area Network • Body Area Network (e.g. GTE’s BAN): “on body”, “Guardian Angel” • System-on-a-chip industry

16. The Microsystems Industry • customers building MicroSystems for embedded applications e.g. autos, PC radio, PDAs, telephones, set top boxes, videophones, person monitoring, room and home monitoring • MicroSystems foundries • existing computer system companies with large software investments • custom design companies that supply "core" IP and take the systems responsibility • Microsystems companies supplying a standard intra-chip architecture, complete with busses, processors, peripherals, memories, and much software! • STANDARDS, STANDARDS, & STANDARDS!

17. IP companies that are fab-less and chip-less that supplying designs • ECAD companies that synthesize logic and provide design services (e.g. Cadence, Synopsis) • circuit wizards who design: fast or low power memories (e.g. VLSI Libraries), analog for audio (also a DSP application), radio and TV tuners, radios, GPS, and especially • processors from RISC to DSP and multimedia • apps that require software and algorithm understanding (e.g. protocols, MPEG) • old style proprietary interface companies e.g. RAMbus with proprietary circuits and signaling standards • microelectormechanical systems (MEMS) components are the KEY!

18. WINS: What would an industry look like?

19. The dimensions • Wireless-ness (signal cable free) • Powerlessness… how many batteries • Networks • Platform vs peripheral • Processing, memory, & storage • New transducers: speech, glasses • Sensors… and actuators • Standards, standards, standards

20. Wireless: we have plenty of bandwidth … provided we use it right • Power vs distance trade-off • Short distance implies more aggregate B/W • minutes or seconds/event … HDTV

21. Sensors, actuators/emitters, sensor-actuators • Medical: P, T (body), blood gas, ECG • Mobile: location (GPS, compass), ambient (P,T), acceleration, • Personal: A/V (and eyes) including IR, body & head position (6 degrees), • Speech and glasses • Radar, sonar, beacons, • Spectrum, chemical, etc. analyzers

22. Platform or a peripheral? • Will this network be an entity unto itself? • How does it couple into Cyberspace? • How is the network coupled to computers?

23. x "Standards" Types • industry i.e. de facto one company - IBM, Wintel • wanna be de facto - ABM • proprietary VendorIX - n-UNIX dialect platforms • trade-markUNIX™ AT&T >Novell>?? • PR standards - OSF + COSE =1170 • OPEN, de jour, or faux = proprietary + ? standards • implicit cross-platform proprietary databases & apps • explicit cross-platform development environments • de jure gov't & intern’l (CCITT, IEEE, ITU, OSI, POSIX, ) • government mandated - ADA, DES, OSI, VHDL • cross-industry forum - ATM, JPEG & MPEG • consortia - Xopen, OSF, OMG • company centered consortia - Java, Sparc, Poweropen • chaotic - Internet & MOSAIC

24. Some apps

25. Why we need wireless

26. Evolving umbilicals … connectingcomputer’s components & network

27. Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P

28. Memex

29. Guardian:intercom,records what we read, see, and hear… protects us fromourselves and others

30. Not shown: ECG; GPS; Libretto, .5mm PCS; Pilot Compass; altimeter Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

31. A device that would have saved me from a heart attack

32. Where am I, exactly? And will I live to enjoy next meal? • Photo of GPS • Watch and ekg

33. For openers… audio, pix, T, P, ECG, … 1 GB

34. Steve ManninCyberspace

35. CMU wearable computers

36. Moore’s law is less important than MEMS

37. BAN, PAN or whatever for people networks • Temperature monitoring with the flu • Saved me from a heart attack • Where is the person, exactly… a baby sitter • Let’s interact… ala Barney

38. MedtronicsImplantedCardioplasticstimulatorcardio- recorder

39. 4 Experts Predict BionicsWired, February 1997 • Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005 • Bionic Limbs 2013 • Artificial Vision 2040 • Bionic Person (unlikely)

40. Health: Number one market need… must be open!

41. Your husband just died, … here’s his black box

42. People surrogates

43. Mobile videophone

44. Honda Robot