EPA’s Ecological Research Program and Ecosystem Services

1. Future Midwestern LandscapesBetsy Smith, Ph.D.2008 Symposium on Innovating for Sustainable Results: Integrated Approaches for Energy, Climate, and the Environment:Case Studies for Integrated PlanningChapel Hill, North CarolinaJanuary 8, 2008Photo: Southern Madison Heritage Trust

2. EPA’s Ecological Research Program and Ecosystem Services • Scientific foundation for market incentives • Support for voluntary policies • Support for national rule-making • Periodic reports on the State of the Environment

3. Elements: a three prong approach • Pollutant (Nitrogen) Driven Ecosystem Services Research How does a regulated pollutant affect, positively and/or negatively the collection/bundle of ecosystem services at multiple scales? • Ecosystem (Wetlands) Driven Ecosystem Services Research How does the collection/bundle of ecosystem services provided by a single ecosystem type change under alternative management options at multiple scales? • Place Driven Ecosystem Services Research How do the collection/bundle of ecosystem services for all ecosystems within an ecosystem district change under alternativemanagement options/drivers?

4. The ERP’s Place - based Studies Willamette Valley Future Midwestern Landscapes Coastal Carolinas Ecosystem Services we will assess in each place-based study: • Reduction of flood and storm surge damage • Supply and maintenance of clean water • Soil and nutrient retention • Controlling spread of pests and disease • Production of food and fiber • Retaining recreation (hunting and fishing) • Carbon sequestration Tampa Bay

5. Importance of Future Midwestern Landscapes Study:Rapid Changes in the Midwest Increases in corn plantings for 2007(and proposed ecosystem services study area)

6. Importance of Future Midwestern Landscapes: Conflicting Expectations Concerns • Impacts of increased grain and oilseed production • Questions about overall energy efficiency • Land withdrawal from CRP, WRP • Cellulosic ethanol unproven • Residue removal problematic • DDG > animal wastes with higher nutrient content • Higher food prices • Food oil prices >tropical land conversion Benefits • Rural Development • Improved agricultural sustainability

7. Streams? Wildlife? Gulf of Mexico? Soils? Food Energy Water Supply? GHG Importance of Future Midwestern Landscapes: Finding the Balance • Midwest as N contributor to Gulf of Mexico • Wetlands as remediation, strongly affected by scenarios

8. Agriculture and Ecosystem Services • “Today, I am announcing that USDA will seek to broaden the use of markets for ecosystem services through voluntary market mechanisms. I see a future where credits for clean water, greenhouse gases, or wetlands can be traded as easily as corn or soybeans.” Mike Johanns, Sec’y of Agriculture, 8/30/05 • Many crop subsidies must be transformed to service payments (to meet WTO)

9. FML Study Goals • Understand how current and projected land uses affect the ecosystems services provided by Midwestern landscapes • Provide spatially explicit information that will enable EPA Regions and Programs to articulate sustainable approaches to environmental management • Develop web-based tools depicting alternative futures so users can evaluate trade-offs affecting ecosystem services

10. Ecosystem services to be examined • Soil productivity (affects food and energy security) • Carbon balance (affects climate) • Hydrology and water quality (affect water supply, flooding, downstream aquatic ecosystems, recreation) • Wildlife habitat and other natural areas (affect biodiversity and recreation) • Predator refugia (controls pests) • Air quality (affects health and visibility)

11. Services (or near proxies) Research Approach –Alternative Futures Food, energy Soil productivity Carbon storage • Landscape • ecology • terrestrial • riparian • wetland Wildlife Natural areas • Environmen- • tal Decision • Toolkit • maps • factor weights • comparisons Predator refugia • Scenario • Definition • key questions • users • baseline • ScenarioConstruction • land cover/use • crop practice • climate? Nutrient export • Hydrology, • water quality • runoff & basin • ground water • hydraulics Flood risk Water supply • Pilot studies, • assist users • test & apply EDT • compare options Aquatic biota Emissions, air quality Human health

12. Characteristics of Future Scenarios • hypothetical and illustrative rather than realistic • span a broad range of future conditions • few in number

13. Proposed Scenarios… Baseline: 2001-2002 For all future scenarios… • Demographic change (and assoc. land use) based on EPA’s Integrated Climate Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model • Climate change not considered in near term (i.e., prior to 2030) ‘Fuel Targets Scenario’ • based on expected renewable fuel requirements in the GHG rule (mostly corn starch ethanol) • acreages from Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) model simulation • disaggregated by field-scale model (profit-maximizing) • discussions underway to determine whether we include mix of cellulosic, as under Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) ‘Multiple Services Scenario’ • assumes incentives for range of ecosystem services • relies on GIS rules, based on agronomic and conservation principles and approximate relative valuation • acreage targets or bounds are possible

14. Services(proxies) Food, energy Crop data (NASS) Prospective Scenario Construction ? Climate change model results Soil productivity Field-scale crop model (EPIC/APEX) Soils data (SSURGO) Carbon storage Water supply ? ? Crop budgets Potential crop yields and edge-of-field exports • Assumptions • or projections: • general economy • ag policies • weather, climate • tech. change • Aggregatecrop acreages • Crop prices Land cover decision rules (disaggregation routine) FAPRI System Detailed land cover, land management, runoff, water use Scenario descriptions Crop location • Assumptions • or projections: • population & GDP • energy demand • emissionconstraints • tech. change Land Cover Maps MARKAL Energy System GIS plant siting/ trans. demand Road network impact Energy/fuel use Air/carbon emissions

15. Scenario Analysis: Hydrology, Water Quality Climate data Topographic data Soils data Services(proxies) Landscape – aquatic biota models Land cover Water quality Aquatic biota Aquatic/ riparian habitat change Hydrology • Basin-scale • hydrologic • model (SWAT) • calibration • runs Detailed land cover, land management, runoff, water use Water supply Water yield Nutrient export Pollutant loads Hydro graph River hydraulic model Flood risk Discharge/ Infiltration Hydrologic management data High resolution terrain data Water use GW model Hydrogeologic data Water supply Water quantity, quality

16. Scenario Assessment and Risk Management: Regional Scale Tool, the MW-EDT Can be used for site selection http://www.waratah.com/region5edt/

17. Display Maps Comparing Scenarios for Maumee Watershed in Region 5 Fuel Targets Scenario Multiple Services Scenario Current Trend Potential Ecosystem Services Analyses from FML-EDT packaged into watershed factsheets and webserviced to Digital Watershed ES Difference Map Here: ESGaps Gaps Maumee Watershed (6-digit HUC) feeds into Lake Erie. Currently in MW-EDT with 12-digit HUC reporting units

18. Difference Map Here: ESGaps Compare actual to potential Zoom in… Next, look closer at bundle of services

19. Client in market for ES prioritizes among those in bundle… Services Water quality Water supply Hunting Fishing Bird Watching Carbon storage Soil productivity Predator refugia Air Quality Cultural Sense of Place Watersheds in red saved and returned to DW for landowner contact, bid solicitation

20. Thank You! For more information: Betsy Smith, smith.betsy@epa.gov Randy Bruins, bruins.randy@epa,gov Brenda Groskinsky, groskinsky.brenda@epa.gov