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Civic Exchanges across the Taiwan Strait

Civic Exchanges across the Taiwan Strait. Week 7. Week 7: Teaching Outline. Development of Civic Exchange Asymmetric Economic Relations Political Impact of Strait Exchanges on Mainland China. 1. Development of Civic Exchange.

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Civic Exchanges across the Taiwan Strait

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  1. Civic Exchanges across the Taiwan Strait Week 7

  2. Week 7: Teaching Outline • Development of Civic Exchange • Asymmetric Economic Relations • Political Impact of Strait Exchanges on Mainland China

  3. 1. Development of Civic Exchange • Political transition as a result of the détente of cross-strait relations (since 1979) • The irrelevance of the martial law • Political transition made people-to-people possible and inevitable • Pressure from the civil society • Three indirect links proposed by Chiu Hongda • Appeals from the KMT’s and DPP’s representatives • Retired soldiers were allowed to visit their family members in the mainland (1987)

  4. 1. Development of Civic Exchange • Despite Lee Teng-hui’s warning against the so-called the “mainland fever” and his policy of controlling strait exchange, which was followed by Chen Shui-bian, economic exchanges between the two sides have developed swiftly over the past twenty years.

  5. 1. Development of Civic Exchange • By the end of 2012, 88,001 Taiwanese business projects had been approved by the mainland, with $57.05 billion being actually invested, accounting for 4.5% of total foreign capitals the mainland had employed • Cross-strait trade reached over $169 billion in the year 2012, with an accumulated amount of $1439 billion by the end of 2012 (cf. SK 300 B for 2015)

  6. 1. Development of Civic Exchange • The mainland is No.1 trade partner, biggest export market and No.2 import partner of Taiwan • Taiwan is No.7 trade partner, No. 9 export market, and No. 5 import partner of the mainland

  7. 1. Development of Civic Exchange • Personnel exchanges （10000 person/times) • From indirect and asymmetric visits to direct and less asymmetric visits • From 4.6 million vs. 0.23 million in 2007 to 4.5 million vs. 0.9 million in 2009, and 5.3 million to 2.6 million in 2012,mainlandtourists:2.75in2013.

  8. CruelWarandPricelessPeace

  9. 战争无情，和平无价（1M）

  10. 2. Asymmetric Economic Relations • From unilateral benefits for Taiwan to reciprocal exchanges for both? • $169 billion cross-strait trade in 2012 • Accounting for 29.6% of Taiwan’s foreign trade which is $571.8 billion • But only about 4.4% of mainland’s foreign trade

  11. 2. Asymmetric Economic Relations • Import from the mainland: 21.77% ($36.8 billion), export to the mainland: 78.23% ($132.1 billion), contributing to Taiwan’s trade surplus ($30.4 billion in total), otherwise Taiwan’s trade deficit would be $6.5 billion

  12. Asymmetric Trade Structure between the Two Sides (2006-2012)

  13. Cross-Strait Trade by End of 2012 ($1438 billion)

  14. Asymmetric Trade Interdependence in 20124.4% vs. 29.5%

  15. Asymmetric Trade Interdependence in 20124.4% vs. 29.5%

  16. Asymmetric Trade Interdependence in 2012

  17. Cross-Strait Trade in 2010 ($145 billion) 20% vs. 80%

  18. Cross-Strait Trade in 2009 ($106 billion)

  19. Cross-Strait Trade in 2008 ($129 Billion) 19% vs. 81%

  20. Cross-Strait Trade in 2007 ($124 Billion) 17% vs. 83%

  21. Cross-Strait Trade in 2006 ($108 Billion) 19% vs. 81%

  22. 2. Asymmetric Economic Relations • Asymmetric interdependence • Taiwan gets more benefits from cross-Strait trade • Trade is more important for Taiwan’s development than for the mainland

  23. 2. Asymmetric Economic Relations • Domestic constraints: who gets benefits from the economic exchange, if not integration • Businesspeople vs. labors • issues of employment • support for 92 consensus from business people during elections • Income distribution among different social strata • Development disparity between the North and the South

  24. 3. Political Impact of Strait Exchanges on Mainland China • More people learn about Taiwan through their personal experience • Is cultural exchange an antidote against increasing Taiwanese identity or a catalyst for value diffusion to the mainland?

  25. 3. Political Impact of Strait Exchanges on Mainland China • The 3 direct links have increased mainlanders’ knowledge of Taiwan • Maintaining the status quo has become an acceptable solution in a short term • Danger of Taiwan’s de jure independence • From an instant unification to peace accord • Ma’s “Three No’s” and the normalizing cross-strait relationship • From confrontation to cooperation • More challenges for Beijing

  26. 3. Political Impact of Strait Exchanges on Mainland China • Impact of Taiwanese democratic experience on the mainland • Democratization in Taiwan was understood as a movement related to TI • Democracy in Taiwan was conveyed as political corruption, social chaos, etc. • TI released by the democratic process served as an antidote against the threat of peaceful evolution in the mainland

  27. 3. Political Impact of Strait Exchanges on Mainland China • Second power turnover was positively coverer by the Chinese media • KMT politicians on CCTV 4 • Wu Po-hsiung (June 2, 2008) • Hao Lung-bin (June 29, 2008) • Jason Hu (July 7, 2008) • Chou His-wei (July 15, 2008) • Wu Tun-yi (Sept. 7, 2008), and most recently • Chu Li-lun (May 18, 2009) • Respect for electoral outcomes • Democracy (election) is a good thing

  28. 3. Political Impact of Strait Exchanges on Mainland China • Taiwanese commentators on CCTV 4 • Cheng You-ping, Chiang Min-chi • Lan Hsuan, Yin Nai-ching • Wang Hong-wei, etc. • Taiwanese newspapers readable via internet • China Times, United Daily, the Commons Daily, but not Liberty Times • Note: Washing Post not available in 2003

  29. 3. Political Impact of Strait Exchanges on Mainland China • Back to tourists • Well-off people tend to be more conservative to dramatic political change (Fewsmith) • The quality of Taiwan democracy will have profound impact (Chu) • Empirical study needed

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