WWYD about GSFL?

1. WWYD about GSFL? PRESENTED TO THE REGIONAL TECHNICAL FORUM Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael and Laura Tabor, Navigant Consulting July 16, 2013 A update on BPA’s non-residential lighting market research * *Yoda Eckman

3. ONLY GSFL!!! It’s about Baselines WHERE WE ARE WHERE WE ARE GOING “As a general rule, the RTF will use a baseline that is characterized by current market practice or the minimum requirements of applicable codes or standards, whichever is more efficient.” Pre-existing condition Current Practice -“what’s in the ceiling”: pre-condition to post-condition -Reflects the choices a typical consumer makes

5. THE CHALLENGE… THE METHODS… THE CONSIDERATIONS…

6. Research Challenge Issue: What is the baseline for GSFL (general service fluorescent lamps—AKA linear fluorescent) in the non-residential sectors? Why it’s important: To ensure that, in light of the DOE standard, we continue to pay for only above-standard energy savings, but still capture cost-effective savings opportunities. Why it wasn’t straightforward: This ain’t your grandpa’s incandescent wattagestandard…let’s look at the complications.

9. Data Collection • Interviewed 20 distributors; in-depth, 90-min interviews. • All NW states represented; some rural, some urban, some small, some large. • Biggest differentiator among distributors is not size/location, but market niche. • Received complete 2010–2012 GSFL and HID sales data from 11 distributors. Expect at least 2 more. • Captured an estimated 45-50% of the market distributor non-residential market.

10. Further Data Collection and Analysis • Interviewed 3 manufacturers • Reviewed national sales data • Reviewed channel-specific (retail, wholesale, etc.) national data • Market insights further supported by Navigant’s research in support of previous GSFL and ballast rulemakings as well as ongoing GSFL DOE rulemaking

11. FINDINGS

12. T12 Lamp Sales ( in thousands )

14. Not only T12 sales plummeting… • Many distributors plan to stop stockingT-12s next year • Remaining sales of T-12s are 100% maintenance market • Big-box stores (non-distributor channels) are not selling significant volume of T-12s to C&I market • Retailers/manufacturers not interested in maintaining SKUs

17. 80% T-8

18. The market is DOMINATED by… 32w T-8

19. No matter how you slice it…

20. What about the existing T-12 systems in buildings? • T-12s are out there • ~25% in 2009 per CBSA • Data from current CBSA available within the year • Saturation expected to be lower due to big program push • Likely in low operating hour profiles

21. When a 40W T12 Burns Out… On average, distributors estimates that only 25% of customers would install new compliant or stockpiled T12s. 75% would upgrade to T8 (majority), T5, or LED. • Furthermore, recall lamp burnout represents the most likely scenario of a T12 being chosen.

22. Defining the market • The standard is working and covers all GSFL, not just one type • Baseline for GSFL; not just T-12s • Market Average = retrofit + maintenance + new construction

23. BPA’s new baseline

24. THINKING AHEAD:THE NEW MATH

25. ANSI Testing Standard • ANSI is in process of changing standard • New DOE ballast efficiency metric in 2014 • Topic for consideration in lighting protocol when subcommittee meets again • Not explicitly being incorporated into the baseline BPA will implement

26. Background on Lamp Power Draw Nominal (“rated”) lamp power is NOT the same as actual power draw from the lamp. And the reason it’s different is NOT ballast factor. These are actually two separate, independent* factors. The regional calculators put them into one bucket called “ballast factor.” The actual reason it is different is an artifact of the way manufacturers are required to test and report performance to DOE AND the fact that most lamps now operate on electronic ballasts. *For all intents and purposes of this project. In reality, one can affect the other.

27. Background on Lamp Power Draw (Cont.) • Okay, so which one is ‘correct’? • Both are ‘correct’ in the context in which they are reported, but for most linear fluorescents lamps today, the actual lamp draw is the ANSI Lamp Arc Power tested at High Frequency because most commercial lamps will run on electronic ballasts.

28. Real Magnitude of this “Artifact”

29. Back Up Slides

30. Market Average Wattage Calculation

31. Obsolete • Obsolete Equipment. Equipment is considered obsolete if either of the following apply: • Components of the Efficient Case system are longer available in the market due to the equipment no longer being manufactured; or • Regulatory requirements, such locally applicable codes and standards for equipment or equipment standards promulgated by the U.S. Department of Energy prohibit sales of the equipment necessary for the Efficient Case system to operate.

32. Characteristics of Results • The baseline wattages reflect the market-weighted system input wattage per lamp for the fluorescent lamps shown to the right. (Nominal overall average is 31W/lamp). • The lamp baselines account for the average ballast and system characteristics. • The results show the dominance of the 32 W T8 lamp: there isn’t a big difference no matter how you slice it. • These values can be easily rolled into any system configuration.

34. Caption Contest “So say the T12 represents the 6th Plan potential and T8 is non-programmatic…” “This is your pre-condition baseline and here’s your current practice.”