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2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook

2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook. ISU Ag. Extension In-Service Ames, Iowa Mar. 23, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. U.S. DDG Supply and Use.

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2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook

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  1. 2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook ISU Ag. Extension In-Service Ames, Iowa Mar. 23, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. U.S. DDG Supply and Use My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt

  4. Feed Pricing Source: USDA

  5. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  6. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Source: USDA

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  9. La Niña Winter El Niño Neutral La Niña Source: NOAA

  10. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  11. 2010 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  12. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  13. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  14. DDG Exports Source: USDA

  15. DDG Exports So Far This Year Source: USDA

  16. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  17. 2010 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  18. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  19. Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  20. Soybean Meal Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  21. 2010 U.S. Soybean Meal Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  22. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  23. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  24. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  25. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  26. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  27. Fuel Prices

  28. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  29. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  30. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  31. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  32. Corn

  33. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  34. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  35. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  36. States with Room to Grow

  37. New Crop Futures Price Movements

  38. Projected Crop Margins

  39. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Japanese earthquake and tsunami have shaken those prospects • Supply/demand concerns • 92 million acres of corn and 78 million acres of soybeans? • South America: La Niña impacts (Argentina , Brazil ) • Biofuels: E15; Ethanol & Biodiesel tax credits renewed • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.40, Soy $11.60 Futures (as of 3/22/2011): Corn $5.37, Soy $11.68 • 2011/12: Futures (as of 3/22/2011): Corn $5.96, Soy $12.93

  40. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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