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Review of Draft Commercial Sector Conservation Assessment

Review of Draft Commercial Sector Conservation Assessment. February 3, 2009. All Commercial Files Can Be Found on line at:. http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/6/supplycurves/default.htm. Commercial Sector. Over 3 billion sf of non-residential buildings

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Review of Draft Commercial Sector Conservation Assessment

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  1. Review of Draft Commercial Sector Conservation Assessment February 3, 2009

  2. All Commercial Files Can Be Found on line at: http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/6/supplycurves/default.htm

  3. Commercial Sector • Over 3 billion sf of non-residential buildings • 40 to 50 million SF of new stock per year • Over 350,000 buildings • Plus “Process” • Streetlights, parking, sewage & water treatment, communications, information processing, icemakers …

  4. Commercial Sector Floor Area

  5. Results to Date:Achievable SavingsAbout 1400 MWa by 2030 FOLLOWING RESEULTS ARE SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT! • Waiting for new data on baseline for exiting stock • Expect modest revisions to floor area and fuel cost • Measure data refinements on costs and applicability for some of the measures • A few measures to add • Placeholder estimates to update • Error checking

  6. Integrated Building Design Lighting Power Density Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Windows Lighting Controls Interior ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes Premium HVAC Equipment Windows Package Roof Top Optimization & Repair Variable Speed Chiller Controls Commission Complex HVAC Evaporative Assist Cooling Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC Demand Control Ventilation Duct Sealing and Repair Roof Insulation Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Plug Load Sensor Premium Fume Hood Pre-Rinse Spray Wash Exit Signs Network PC Power Management Packaged Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Clothes Washers Cooking Equipment Office Equipment Computer Servers and IT Exterior Building Lighting Street and Roadway Lighting Parking Lighting LED Traffic Lights LED Advertising Signs Municipal Sewage Treatment Municipal Water Supply DCV Restaurant Hood DCV Parking Garage Measure Bundles

  7. Commercial Sector Achievable Savings Potential by End Use by 2030

  8. Building-Related MeasuresCumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030

  9. Equipment-Related MeasuresCumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030

  10. Lighting

  11. Why Lighting is Important • Lighting is big: About 40% of electric use • Technological Change • New baseline conditions • New measures are available • Proven track record • Programs, codes & standards capture savings

  12. Lighting Power Density Daylighting with Skylights Daylighting with Windows Lighting Controls Interior Exit Signs Exterior Building Lighting Street and Roadway Lighting Parking Lighting LED Traffic Lights Signage What’s Included: Lighting

  13. Preliminary Results for Interior Lighting • Increased achievable potential relative to 5th Plan • Over 500 MWa in 6th versus about 350 MWa in 5th • New measures added exceed accomplishments • Lower achievable LPDs • More ways to turn lights off • More in Natural Replacement than Retrofit • Somewhat higher cost • Not all of this is cost-effective • Low TRC cost

  14. Notable Changes from 5th plan • T12 Linear Fluorescent are dying out • None in new buildings, phasing out in existing stock • High Performance T8 (HPT8) is FL measure of choice • Replace 1990s T8s with HPT8 (75 to 95 lumens/Watt) • Programs should promote HPT8 ONLY • Baseline for incandescent is Halogen (EISA2007) • Baseline for Metal Halide is Pulse Start (EISA2007) • Savings deltas are smaller • Lot of CFLs in new buildings • Linear Fluorescent is replacing Metal Halide • But MH to Linear FL still a good measure • Added Efficient Fluorescent Fixtures as NEW MEASURE

  15. Interior Lighting

  16. How We Estimate Lighting Savings Lighting Energy: Watts x Hours = kWh Lighting Savings: Watts Saved x Hours = kWh Saved + HVAC Interaction or Watts x Hours Saved = kWh Saved + HVAC Interaction More Efficient Lamps & Ballasts More Efficient Fixtures Control Measures: Occupancy sensors, timers, day lighting

  17. How We Estimate Cost of Savings First Cost = Equipment + Labor + Markup + Disposal Periodic Costs = Lamp replacement costs or savings Annual Fuel Costs = Cost of gas to replace heat from lights COSTS kWh SAVINGS PROCOST $ / kWh SHAPE OF SAVINGS

  18. Then Supply Curves kWh/SF x (SF Applicable) x (Achievable) = Total Potential Simple …

  19. But Tedious • 10 proxy lighting measures, 18 building types, 3 fuel types, 3 applications = 1620 lighting measures • Each with a dozen different costs & savings inputs

  20. Reducing Lighting Power Density (LPD in Watts per SF) Estimate Potential Savings for These Remove from Potential Code Target 0.75 Source: New Buildings Characteristics Survey, Ecotope for NEEA 2008

  21. Setting the Target LPD

  22. Source: New Buildings Characteristics Survey, Ecotope for NEEA 2008

  23. Develop Measures that Achieve these reductions in LPD

  24. Lamp & Measures Distribution for New Large Offices Savings from the measures applied add up to the LPD savings target. Savings and costs are weighted by contribution to LPD reduction. T12 to HPT8 T8 to HPT8 T8-2 to T8HP-2 & Efficient Fixture Inc-R to LED Inc to CMH Repeat for 18 Building Types for 3 Applications

  25. Some Key Measures New for 6th Plan New for 6th Plan

  26. Key Input Summary for LPD Bundle

  27. Generic Achievability Ramps Rates Used in Commercial

  28. Lighting Control Measures • New measure for 6th Plan • A minor revolution in technology & applications • Lower cost, higher reliability and more options • Warehouse & Open Office occupancy sensors • Classrooms • Dimming during retail store stocking periods • Bi-level stairwell & hallway • Restrooms, break rooms These measures were not in the 5th Plan

  29. Key Inputs for Lighting Control

  30. Daylighting • Results modestly lower than 5th Plan • Over half the savings in skylight daylighting • High penetration in new Big Box Stores • All new Wal-Mart stores • Savings in side daylighting • Still working on control problems • Lower Baseline LDPs reduce savings

  31. Top Daylighting: Key Inputs

  32. Outdoor Lighting

  33. Six Months Ago Oakland, CA Replace 121W HPS 78W LED $610 per Fixture Improved Visibility $14 per Watt Saved Today Oakland, CA Replace 121 HPS 58W LED $400 per Fixture Improved Visibility $7 per Watt Saved Advances in LED Streetlighting Since July 2008 RTF NICE PROGRESS

  34. Key Inputs for Streetlights

  35. Key Inputs for Parking Lighting

  36. Key Inputs for Exterior Building Lighting

  37. HVAC

  38. Controls Commissioning ComplexKey Inputs

  39. Package Rooftop Optimization & Repair6P Savings are 33% of 5P Savings

  40. Package Rooftop Optimization & RepairKey Inputs

  41. Demand Control Ventilation

  42. Demand Control VentilationKey Inputs

  43. Demand Control Ventilation • DVC Cooling Savings • New: .001 to .08 kWh/sf • Retro: .003 to .145 kWh/sf • DCV Heat Savings • New: 0.2 to 4.3 kWh/sf or 2 to 8 therms/sf • Retro: 0.3 to 5.4 kWh/sf or 2 to 8 therms/sf • RTU Fleet Strategy Ventilation Savings • New & Retro: .54 kWh/sf

  44. Key Inputs for Variable Speed Chiller

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