TC Watch/Warning Group Update

1. TC Watch/Warning Group Update Storm Surge Warning Michael Brennan and Daniel Brown National Hurricane Center 2009 NOAA Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida 2 Dec 2009

2. Background • Team formed in August 2009 • Grew out of agenda items from previous NOAA Hurricane Conferences • Unify terminology of inland and coastal hurricane and tropical storm wind warnings • Simplify issuance of VTEC codes for tropical cyclone related watches/warnings NCZ095-103-104-282100- /O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W DUCK-NC 36.23N 75.77W GMZ530-555-LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-131045- /O.CAN.KLIX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS- COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ASCENSION- LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST- UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS- UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE- LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-

3. Team Members • Tim Schott (OS21) • Walt Zaleski (SRH) • Harvey Thurm (ERH) • Bill Sammler (AKQ) • Rich Bandy (MHX) • Gene Hafele (HGX) • Steve Letro (JAX) • Mike Brennan and Dan Brown (NHC)

4. Team Objectives • Define a unified terminology and process (including IT) for issuing watches and warnings associated with TC wind. • Coordinate with, and facilitate work by, the storm surge watch/warning team where interests coincide. • Address the WFOs’ desire for an event-ending time for NHC-led watches and warnings. • Increase WFOs’ flexibility in deciding which coastal zones will be included in each TCV while supporting NHC’s needs to accommodate national level customers, etc. • Unify, to the extent possible, the issuance product(s) for TC watches and warnings. Currently, TC watches/warnings for coastal zones are implemented in VTEC through the TCV. Inland TC watches/warnings and coastal marine zone TC watches/warnings are implemented in VTEC through the HLS. WFOs desire a single VTEC product for implementing all TC watches/warnings.

5. SPC/WFO Collaboration • Build on convective watch collaborative process between SPC and WFOs • SPC defines broad outline of watch area • WFOs provide feedback to SPC about details of watch placement (inclusion or exclusion of counties near edge of SPC watch area)

6. Progress Made So Far • NHC would issue internal product (TCL) outlining preliminary watch/warning areas • TCV should be retained and expanded to include inland (and possibly marine) zones • TCV provides functionality of Watch/Warning Outline Update Message (WOU) used by convective program • TCV would be “national level” watch/warning product for national partners and vendors • Unify terminology for Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch/Warning for coastal and inland zones • Retire HI and TI VTEC codes • Depending on progress of NWS storm surge team, team felt best time to do this would be concurrent with implementation of storm surge warning

7. Potential Issues • Desire by WFOs to have an expiration time on all watches and warnings • Determination of who has final say when there is disagreement between a WFO and NHC or between WFOs • Developing technological tools to ensure efficient collaboration process • Mechanism for issuance of watches for systems that have not yet become a TC

8. Potential Issues • Mechanics of collaboration between NHC and as many as 10-15 WFOs • Typical SPC watch collaboration is with 4 WFOs • Hurricane Hotline is not available to all potentially affected WFOs • Collaboration will likely have to occur outside Hotline framework • NHC will look into possibility of releasing preliminary wind speed probabilities to WFOs for the collaboration process

9. VTEC “Event End Time” - Uses • USE - Provides data users (media, emergency responders, officials, public, etc.) projected cessation of tropical cyclone event/impacts. • Example: 090713T2100Z(VTEC Event End Time) • YEAR 09 • MONTH 07 • DAY 13 • TIME (UTC) 2100Z In the above example, tropical cyclone conditions were projected to end by 21Z on July 13, 2009.

10. VTEC “Event End Time” - Uses • Dissemination – VTEC “Event End Time” aids in the automated delivery and depiction of tropical cyclone events/impacts. • Critical information may be scrolled, graphically depicted /deleted automatically. • Removes human intervention/judgment from dissemination/receipt process. • Event Duration – Allows users to project duration of tropical cyclone impacts in order to better prepare for the protection of life and property. • Planning– Helps officials better assess, plan and project extent of economic and infrastructure loss/disruptions due to duration of tropical cyclone event/impacts. • Response – Helps officials determine when to safely deploy disaster response resources and restore critical infrastructure in a timely and effective manner.

11. Technological Requirements • NHC needs access to GFE that will allow for collaboration over a wide domain • NHC would identify preliminary watch and warning zones and send to WFOs via Inter-site Coordination (ISC) grids • Will probably be at least 3 seasons (2012) before new tools can be brought into AWIPS II • OS21 will initiate an OSIP project for a long term plan for creating a collaborative software tool for the issuance of all TC watches and warnings for coastal and inland zones