Cyprus-EU Relations in the Framework of the Helsinki European Council’s Decisions: Possible Scenarios for Cyprus Member

1. THIRD INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON CYPRUS STUDIES Cyprus-EU Relations in the Framework of the Helsinki European Council’s Decisions: Possible Scenarios for Cyprus Membership ASSOC. PROF. DR. HASAN ALI BICAK ASSOC. PROF. DR. WOJCIECH FORYSINSKI 13-17 November, 2000

2. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY 1.2 STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY 2. MILESTONES IN EU-CYPRUS RELATIONS 2.1 APPLICATION FOR ASSOCIATE MEMBERSHIP 2.2 APPLICATION FOR FULL MEMBERSHIP 2.3 LUXEMBOURG AND HELSINKI DECISIONS 3. SCENARIOS OF OTHER SCHOLARS 3.1 NEILL NUGENT 3.2 HEINZ-JURGEN AXT

3. 4. OUR SCENARIOS 4.1 NO SOLUTION TO THE CYPRUS PROBLEM • NO SOLUTION NO MEMBERSHIP (STATUS QUO CONTINUES) • NO SOLUTION AND “CYPRUS” BECOMES A MEMBER • NO SOLUTION AND NORTH AND SOUTH BECOME MEMBERS SEPARATELY 4.2 SOLUTION TO THE CYPRUS PROBLEM • SOLUTION BUT NO MEMBERSHIP • SOLUTION AND MEMBERSHIP • MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT TURKEY • MEMBERSHIP WITH TURKEY • MEMBERSHIP WITH PRECONDITIONS  5. CONCLUDING REMARKS

4. 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY • AGENDA 2000, OPENED THE WAY FOR AN UNPRECEDENTED ENLARGEMENT (13 STATES) • THE PROCESS OF ENLARGEMENT IS GAINING MOMENTUM (LUXEMBOURG AND HELSINKI SUMMITS) • THE PROCESS OF ENLARGEMENT HAS, SO FAR, FAILED TO BE A CATALYST FOR THE SOLUTION • FIVE ROUNDS OF PROXIMITY TALKS ARE COMPLETED

5. REPORTS ON PROGRESS TOWARD ACCESSION ARE PUBLISHED TOGETHER WITH A DRAFT ACCSESSION PARTNER SHIP FOR TURKEY • REPORTS ON TURKEY’S AND CYPRUS’S PROGRESS, TOWARD ACCESSION REFER TO THE SETTLEMENT OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM (AS A SHORT TERM TASK FOR 2001) • THE COMMISSION PROPOSES A ROAD MAP FOR THE NEGOTIATIONS

6. THE PAPER AIMS TO IDENTIFY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE SETTLEMENT OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM AND CYPRUS MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION • SCENARIOS WILL BE AS EXHAUSTIVE AS POSSIBLE. THEY WILL BE EVALUATED WITH RESPECT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING REALIZED

7. 1.2 STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY • NEXT SECTION WILL GIVE A VERY BRIEF OVERVIEW OF CYPRUS EU RELATIONS • SCENARIOS CONSTRUCTED BY OTHER SCHOLARS WILL BE SUMMARISED IN A CRITICAL WAY • OUR SCENARIOS AND SUBSCENARIOS WILL BE IDENTIFIED AND ANALYSED

8. THE SETTLEMENT OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM IS CONSIDERED AS A KEY FACTOR AND, CONSEQUENTLY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ARE CLASSIFIED INTO TWO BROAD CATEGORIES : - NO SOLUTION SCENARIOS - SOLUTION SCENARIOS • SUBSCENARIOS WILL INVESTIGATE ALTERNATIVES OF CYPRUS MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU.

9. 2. MILESTONES IN CYPRUS – EU RELATIONS • FIRST APPLICATION IN 1962 • CUSTOMS UNION IN 1987 • MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION IN 1993 • COUNCIL DECISION OF 6 MARCH 1995 • LUXEMBOURG COUNCIL DECISION (DEC 1997) • 30 MARCH 1998, ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS STARTED • HELSINKI COUNCIL DECISION (DEC 1999) • THE REGULAR REPORT (2000)

10. 3. SCENARIOS OF OTHER SCHOLARS • A NUMBER OF SCHOLARS HAVE ALREADY TRIED TO PREDICT THE FUTURE FOR CYPRUS (NEILL NUGENT (2000), HEINZ – JURGEN AXT (1999), MANETTE NEUWAHL (2000), MELTEM MÜFTÜLER – BAC (1999), AND OTHERS) • NEILL NUGENT’S SCENARIOS • RESOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM (MOST DESIRED BY EU DECISION-MAKERS; UNLIKELY SCENARIO). • NO RESOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM, CYPRUS APPLICATION IS SHELVED, AND GREECE BLOCKS THE ACCESSION OF CEECS (UNLIKELY). • NO RESOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM, CYPRUS’S MEMBERSHIP IS SHELVED, AND CEECS ACCEDE. • NO RESOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM, BUT CYPRUS STILL ACCEDES (SOME VERSION OF THIS SCENARIO IS THE MOST LIKELY)

11. HEINZ-JÜRGEN AXT’S SCENARIOS • SOLUTION FIRST (LEAST PROBABLE) • TWO CYPRIOT STATES IN THE EU – A LOOSE SORT OF CONFEDERATION • FIRST THE REPUBLIC AND THEN THE NORTH (THE NORTH WOULD HAVE THE OPTION TO JOIN THE EU LATER ON; SIMILAR TO GERMAN MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU; ITS REALIZATION IS DIFFICULT TO BE JUDGED) • COMPETENCE-MIXTURE IN A WEAK FEDERATION (RELATED WITH SCENARIO NUMBER 2 BUT MORE CONCRETE; DIFFICULT TO HANDLE FOR THE EU; THE MOST PROBABLE AND PROMISING ONE)

12. AXT’S SCENARIOS: CRITIQUE • HE LOOKED MOSTLY FROM THE EU POINT OF EU • HE HAS NOT CONSIDERED THE “TURKEY FACTOR”, UNDERESTIMATED ITS INFLUENCE ON THE WHOLE PROCESS • NORTH CYPRUS WILL NOT FILL SAVE IN A MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT TURKEY • THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO DOES NOT CONSIDER THE ABOVE PARAMETERS

13. NUGENT’S SCENARIOS: CRITIQUE • MOST OF THE ARGUMENTS MADE FOR THE SCENARIOS OF AXT ALSO APPLY TO THE SCENARIOS OF NUGENT • NUGENT WAS ONE SIDED IN HIS SOURCES OF INFORMATION • HE CONSIDERS THAT THE APPLICATION COULD BE SHELVED (NO MEMBERSHIP), AS WELL AS MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT A SOLUTION • HE CONSIDERS “A MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT A SOLUTION” A VERSION OF IT AS THE MOST LIKELY

14. CREDIT TO THE AUTHORS • AXT STRESSED THAT EU CANNOT BE A CATALYST TO THE SOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM BUT TO ITS PERMANENT DIVISION. • NUGENT REALIZES THE DIFFICULTIES OF CYPRUS ACCESSION TO THE EU • HE ACKNOWLEDGES TURKEY’S IMPORTANCE BUT DOES NOT GO FAR ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AS A DECISIVE FACTOR • HE MAINTAINS THAT GREECE COULD NOT BE ABLE TO BLOCK THE ACCESSION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

15. 4. OUR SCENARIOS A. NO SOLUTION TO THE CYPRUS PROBLEM PROXIMITY TALKS DID NOT CLOSE THE GAP BETWEEN TWO PARTIES • REACTION TO THE 12 SEPT STATEMENT (FOURTH ROUND) • TURKISH CYPRIOT SIDE’S REACTION TO THE ANNAN’S NON – PAPER (FIFTH ROUND) • TURKEY’S MEMBERSHIP IS TOO FAR (113 POINTS TO BE COVERED) • SOLUTION IS NOT FEASIBLE IN A FORESEEABLE FUTURE • NO SOLUTION SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN SOLUTION SCENARIOS

16. SUB SCENARIOS 1. NO SOLUTION NO MEMBERSHIP • HIGHLY PROBABLE • IT’S THE MEMBERS WHO DECIDE ABOUT THE MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU;SOME MEMBERS OPPOSE ACCESSION OF DIVIDED CYPRUS. OTHERWISE, CYPRUS IS THE FIRST MEMBER TO SATISFY THE COPENHAGEN CRITERIA • ORIGINALLY THE EU WAS SUPPORTING “A SOLUTION BEFORE THE MEMBERSHIP” SCENARIO

17. EU WOULD NOT WANT TO IMPORT A PROBLEM (DIVIDED ISLAND) • ISLAND IS DIVIDED AND ACQUIS COULD NOT BE IMPLEMENTED IN THE NORTH • BORDER’S OF THE EU WILL BE UNCERTAIN • MEMBERSHIP WILL ANTAGONIZE TURKEY (TURKEY IS THE 6TH GREATEST TRADING PARTNER OF THE EU)

18. 2. NO SOLUTION AND CYPRUS BECOMES A MEMBER • HIGHLY UNLIKELY • REASONS GIVEN IN SCENARIO 1 ARE VALID IN THIS CASE AS WELL

19. 3. NO SOLUTION AND TWO SIDES BECOME MEMBERS SEPARATELY • HIGHLY UNLIKELY • WE AGREE WITH AXT. IT IS NOT EASY TO AMEND UN RECOGNITION OF CYPRUS GOVERNMENT AND RECOGNIZE TRNC • TRNC IS FAR FROM SATISFYING THE COPENHAGEN CRITERIA (ECONOMIC AND ACQUIS COMMUNAUTAIRE)

20. 4.2 SOLUTION TO THE CYPRUS PROBLEM • HIGHLY DIFFICULT (LOW PROBABILITY) • REASONS GIVEN IN 4.1 • SUB – SCENARIOS WILL ASSUME A SOLUTION AND WILL BE EVALUATED WITH THIS ASSUMPTION • SOLUTION SCENARIOS ARE LESS LIKELY THAN NO SOLUTION SCENARIOS • NOTE THAT IN SUBSCENARIOS EVEN IF THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE MAIN SCENARIO (NO SOLUTION) IS HIGH OR LOW , THE SUBSCENARIO IS EVALUATED ON ITS OWN

21. SUB – SCENARIOS A. MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT TURKEY • VERY UNLIKELY • TURKEY DOES NOT WANT TO RISK ITS MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU (TWO VETOS) • TURKEY MAY LOSE NORTH CYPRUS IN THE EU • TURKISH CYPRIOTS WOULD NOT LIKE TO BE IN THE EU WITHOUT TURKEY (SECURITY REASONS)

22. B. MEMBERSHIP WITH TURKEY • HIGHLY UNLIKELY • TIME FACTOR. TURKEY IS NOT READY. IT MAY TAKE YEARS BEFORE TURKEY MEETS THE COPENHAGEN CRITERIA • GREEK CYPRIOTS AND GREECE WILL OPPOSE

23. C. MEMBERSHIP WITH THE PRE CONDITIONS • HIGHLY PROBABLE • SOLUTION BY ITSELF EVEN IF IT SATISFIES ALL THE DESIRES OF THE TURKISH CYPRIOT SIDE, IS NOT ENOUGH FOR MEMBERSHIP • TURKEY WOULD NOT WANT TO RISK ITS MEMBERSHIP AND THE SECURITY ISSUE FOR THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS • PRE CONDITION COULD INCLUDE CERTAIN GUARANTIES FOR TURKEY’S MEMBERSHIP WITH A TIME FRAME • EQUAL TREATMENT OF TURKEY WITH GREECE AFTER MEMBERSHIP IS NOT LIKELY. TURKEY COULD NOT BE PROMOTED, GREECE COULD NOT BE DISCRIMINATED

24. 5. CONCLUDING REMARKS • UNPRECEDENTED ENLARGEMENT IS TAKING PLACE. 13 APPLICANTS, EU REFORMING ITSELF • PROCESS IS GAINING MOMENTUM. ROAD MAPS ARE GIVEN • A NUMBER OF SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE (OTHERS AND OURS) • TIME FACTOR IN THE MEDIUM OR LONG TERM PROBABILITY MAY SHIFT FROM NO SOLUTION TO SOLUTION SCENARIOS • TURKEY AND ITS READINESS TO JOIN THE EU IS A CRITICAL FACTOR OF CYPRUS MEMBERSHIP

25. WITHOUT TURKEY CYPRUS MEMBERSHIP SEEMS LESS LIKELY • FOR THE SOLUTION AND FOR THE MEMBERSHIP TURKEY’S CONSENT IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT • MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT TURKEY BUT WITH SOME PRE CONDITIONS (CERTAIN GUARANTEES FOR TURKEY’S MEMBERSHIP) IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.