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FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment

FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment. Republic of Moldova August 2007. Average monthly air temperature ( °C ) in 1946 and 2007 Source: State Hydrometeorological Service. Precipitation quantity (mm) in 1946 and 2007 Source: State Hydrometeorological Service.

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FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment

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  1. FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Republic of Moldova August 2007

  2. Average monthly air temperature (°C) in 1946 and 2007Source: State Hydrometeorological Service FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  3. Precipitation quantity (mm) in 1946 and 2007Source: State Hydrometeorological Service FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  4. NDVI - June 2nd Dekad – Romania Source: GIEWS Workstation FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  5. NDVI – June 2nd Dekad, UkraineSource: GIEWS Workstation FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  6. NDVI - June 2nd Dekad, MoldovaSource: GIEWS Workstation FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  7. Growing Conditions • Sept ’06 – July 07 rainfall 50-75% of normal overall • In some southern and central areas, only 25% of normal rainfall • Peak temperatures 3-4 degrees> normal • Soil moisture 1/3 of normal • Comes after the 2003 drought, and dry weather in the south during 2005/06 FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  8. Impact on Agricultural Production FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  9. Impact on Agriculture – Livestock(lack of pasture, feed, low incomes) • Opportunity cost of lost production, at market prices, nearly 300 mln euros for cereal crops only • De-stocking of 1/3 to ½ of household cattle holdings depending on area • Loss to the livestock sector, esp cattle: NPV value of flow of benefits (milk, offspring, growing out weight) likely larger than for crops FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  10. Impact on Rural Households • Lower or no returns to land • Much less food from home garden production • Loss of savings, food and income from liquidated family livestock • Increased food expenditures, at higher nominal prices • Higher prices for other basic requirements (energy, gas, heating, etc.) • Reduction in foreign market share and income for wine and spirits FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  11. Trade and Food Balance Position • Percent coverage of imports by exports: from 56.3% in 2003 to 39% in 2006 • Deficit can be made up from commercial imports • Main problem: access by poor households with less of their own production (land, home gardens, livestock), facing either prices FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  12. Financial losses/Indebtedness • Financial sector: highly capitalized, lends little to the ag sector, can finance the next season • Very small farms: borrow very little • Small associations NFFM, own funds, relatives, • Larger associations, LLCs will have to reimburse partially and reschedule debt to banks, S&Ls, Input suppliers • Producers have borne most of the risk of exposure to disaster FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  13. Short-term (Emergency) Measures • Heavily producer-subsidized inputs for Winter crops (October planting), including forage crops • Livestock feed/concentrate to avoid further destocking • Tax relief: land, rural economic activities, import duties • Expanded social protection programs (allowances, school meals, use of school canteens for the vulnerable) • Cash-for-public works • Fortification of domestic/imported wheat against iron deficiency FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  14. Medium-term Measures • Reconstitution of household livestock assets (diversification, e.g. rabbits) • Plant genetic material: choice, selection, multiplication, risk-mitigation (e.g. red sorghum for livestock feed) • Proper emphasis on diversification, adaptation, and extension to home garden food production • Improved access to water resources for home gardens, including appropriate low-cost pumps, other technologies • Better use of water resources for home garden food production, including rainwater harvesting • Use of information for food security monitoring, early warning FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  15. Long-term Measures (start now!) • Components of a sustainable ag sector strategy: crop mix, varietal selection, protection of the resource base, efficient use of water resources • Financial sector reform - integrated with: • Agricultural insurance sector reform FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  16. Balti Odessa Reni MOLDOVA – Logistics Options UKRAINE • Entry points • Ports • Rail & Road options • Storage • Roads • Milling • Implementing partner UKRAINE Chisinau ROMANIA Cahul UKRAINE FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

  17. Thank you! Questions and comments welcome

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