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Monetary policy: find the right balance!

Monetary policy: find the right balance!. Júlia Király, Deputy Governor. Magyar Nemzeti Bank. IT was successful in bringing down inflation…. …but not in stabilizing inflation around the MNB’s target(s). A series of adverse shocks : bad luck or something systemic ?.

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Monetary policy: find the right balance!

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  1. Monetary policy: find the right balance! Júlia Király, Deputy Governor Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  2. IT was successful in bringing down inflation…

  3. …but not in stabilizing inflation around the MNB’s target(s) A series of adverseshocks: badluckorsomethingsystemic?

  4. Mismeasurment of the output gap Estimated output gapbetween Q1:1995 and Q2:2008

  5. Not always easy to find the right model! 2a. Complexfull-fledgedDSGE Theoreticalconsistency 3. Smallscaleintuitive policy oriented 2b. Complex VECM 1. 3. 2. 2. Data coherence

  6. „Dirty floating” is inconsistent with IT!

  7. Price stability VERSUS? financial stability PRICE STABILITY FINANCIAL STABILITY MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING

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