2013 – The Year in Review

1. 2013 – The Year in Review

2. The Fleets - 2013 TypeWestern BuiltEastern BuiltTotal Turbojets 22,113 1,007 23,120 Turboprops 4,797 1,001 5,898 Business Jets 18,072 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

3. Accident Classifications Aircraft * Type: Turbojets, Turboprops, Piston, Helicopters * Size: Weight, number of seats * Use: Passenger, cargo, business, government * Western built or Eastern built How Measured * Per hours flown * Per departures * Per number of aircraft Classification * Hull Loss Accident * Total Loss Accident * Economic Loss Accident * Substantial Damage Accident * Fatal Accident * Major Accident

5. Accident Classifications Major Accident: An accident in which any of three conditions is met: 1. Aircraft destroyed, or 2. Multiple fatalities to occupants, or 3. One fatality and aircraft substantially damaged

6. CFITLOCExcursion Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

7. Commercial Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2013 20 19 19 19 15 16 17 17 14 13 13 13 10 11 7 5 7 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Eastern Built

8. CFITLOCExcursion Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2014 to 16 April 2014 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

9. Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service CFIT

10. Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013 (cont.) CFIT Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

11. Commercial Turboprop Major Accidents 2000 through 2013 40 39 35 30 33 31 26.1 (12 years) 31 25 29 20.6 (5 years) 24 24 20 22 23 22 21 20 15 17 10 5 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Eastern Built

12. Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2014 to 16 April 2014 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service CFIT

14. Major Accidents Business Jets 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

15. Major Accidents Business Jets 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

16. Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2013 20 15 15 14 14 10.4 Average 10 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

17. Business Jet Major Accident Rate 2000 through 2013 (Accidents per 1,000 Aircraft) 1.0 .75 5 Year Average: .49 .50 .25 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

18. Major Accidents Business Jets 1 January 2014 to 16 April 2014 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

20. Approach and Landing Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 through 31 December 2013

21. Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 63% of Business Jet Major Accidents were Approach and Landing Accidents 20 ALA Accidents 15 15 14 14 13 10 11 10.5 12 9 8 8 9 11 8 8 8 8 8 7 6.5 7 5 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 07 08 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 09 10 11 12 13

22. Controlled Flight into Terrain Major AccidentsCommercial Jets1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013 Sources: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend

23. 23 5 Year Running Average

24. Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 through 31 December 2013

25. Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1999 through 2013 6 4 Number of Accidents

26. Being Predictive In A Reactive World

27. Being Predictive • Can we be predictive ? • Will it be successful in reducing risk ?

28. Safety Basics Safety = Risk Management * Eliminate risk * Reduce risk * Acknowledge risk

29. Managing Risk

31. Risk Management 101 • Risk = (Probability) X (Severity) • Everything in life has risk • Manage Risk by modifying P or S

32. The Key to Risk Management # 1 Identify Hazards

33. Being Efficient Good: Prevent 1 accident in 5 years Better: Prevent 5 accidents in 1 year

34. Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence CategoriesFatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012

35. Reactive: Tending to react, characterized by reaction Proactive: Preparing for, intervening in, or controlling an expected occurrence or situation Predictive: Inference regarding a future event based on probability

36. The Spectrum of Safety Fly-crash-fix-flyIdentify hazardsas they appear in accidents Utilize data from incidents and normal operations to identify trends and reduce risk before an accident happens Study past accidents and incidents to identify hazards and reduce risk Reactive Proactive Predictive Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data Data Availability/Utilization

37. Predicting • We can easily predict 90% of next year’s accidents - > 50% will be approach and landing - Half of those will be runway excursions - There will be at least 2 Jet and 4 Turboprop CFIT accidents - There will be 1 or 2 upset aircraft

38. Predicting “Black swan” events - TWA-800 - BA-038 - QF-32

39. Being Predictive • Can we be predictive ?

42. Being Predictive • Can we be predictive ? YES

43. Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence CategoriesFatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012

44. Safety Fatality Data - Circa 1992 Collision with terrain Approach and landing Loss of control Maintenance ATC systems Postcrash survival Inflight fire/smoke Engine failures Airport ground control Nonconfiguration takeoffs Windshear Deicing/anti-icing Rejected takeoff 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

45. Trending • Can detect trends and future hazards * Systems * Locations * Procedures

46. ASAP and FOQA Analysis of OAK Arrivals Receiving TAWS Alerts

47. TCAS Hotspot Snap Shot

48. Being Predictive • Will it be successful in reducing risk ?

49. Predictive Challenge - Being able to get the support of the decision makers

50. Keys to Predictive Success 1. Data and the technology to use the data to make the risk management case 2. Decision maker support