Systemic accumulation in the post 1945 period in advanced capitalist countries

1. Systemic accumulation in the post 1945 period in advanced capitalist countries

2. Introduction • What went right?.....................................................What went wrong? • this week next week (and can one theory explain both?) • ‘The all but general opinion seems to be that capitalist methods • will be unequal to the task of reconstruction’ (Schumpeter 1945) • Economic growth in the long boom (c1947-1973) • Domestic transformations • Keynes, Keynesianism and the rise of the state • Regulation and Fordism Systemic transformations • Hegemonic Stability Theory • Dependency • Arms economy

3. ‘Keynesian’ innovations • The Keynesian Revolution • Time, uncertainty and the money economy • saving and the paradox of thrift • -problems of effective demand (cf Marxist theories) • ↓ interest rates ≠ ↑ investment • ↓ wages ≠ ↑employment • Equilibrium with underemployment • Government pump-priming and multiplier effects • Income inequality and savings • the euthanasia of the rentier’ (?) • the ‘somewhat comprehensive socialisation of investment’ (?) • Keynesianism and ‘bastard’ Keynesianism

4. Practices of the Keynesian period • Other interventionist traditions • Dirigisme, Social Democracy, Christian Democracy? • Post-war practices • Nationalisations, • the welfare state, • full employment, • wage rises…

5. Institutional Variety • The state as an institution – US v UK (Margaret Weir) • Nationalisation – France, UK…US, Japan • Regulation – including corporate and labour market regulation • The (unplanned) rise of the state, v. Keynes’s benign hand

6. Regulation and ‘Fordism’ • Fordism and FMC • Scale economies • “Paternalism” • $5 day and workers’ demand for cars • 1929 and after • Extension to other firms and industries • Americanism and Fordism (Gramsci) • Inter-industry and international variation • Fordism and the post-war boom • (Diffusion of) new technologies and productivity rises • Fordism as a ‘total way of life’ (Harvey) • Tripartism (capital, labour and the state)

7. Productivity rate: growth rates of output per worker

8. The state - labour - capital • 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 • US Union membership (000s) 3393 8944 15000 18117 20752 • US Average annual earnings, $ 1368 1299 2992 4743 7564 • rising living standards and mass consumption • …sustains effective demand… • technological innovation economies of scale increased consumption falling price

9. Regulation, Marxism and the rate of profit • labour as the source of profits: surplus (s) and variable capital (v) • inter-capitalist competition and increased spending on constant capital (c) • Rate of profit: p’ = s • c + v ...and its tendency to fall • Aglietta and the cheapening of consumption commodities • reduces value of labour power (cars, housing???) • ‘Regulation’, • ‘Social Structures of Accumulation’ • and their relationship with cycles of production?

10. Problems • The persistence of the boom v. the need for Keynesian ‘solutions’ • The generality of the boom v. political and economic variety • differences in production – consumption norms • differences in regulatory frameworks • …systemic explanations