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Point LRF Forecasting Method

Point LRF Forecasting Method. By: Brad Satkowski. Main Topics. Explanation of method Forecasts Verifications Forecast evaluation Recommendations. Explanation of Method. 3 sites in United States and 3 in Europe used Pittsburgh, Dallas, Chicago, Lisbon, Rome, Oslo

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Point LRF Forecasting Method

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  1. Point LRF Forecasting Method By: Brad Satkowski

  2. Main Topics • Explanation of method • Forecasts • Verifications • Forecast evaluation • Recommendations

  3. Explanation of Method • 3 sites in United States and 3 in Europe used • Pittsburgh, Dallas, Chicago, Lisbon, Rome, Oslo • Recent 30 day temperature departure from normal • NAO and AO values documented during these times • Find 5 other time spans with similar AO and NAO trends • Past anomalies used to make forecast for March 2003 based on recent AO and NAO values

  4. Forecasts • Forecasts made on February 25, 2003 • AO value on this date was approximately –0.500 • NAO value on this date was approximately –1.000 • Both had been negative for most of winter • Assumed trend would continue • Wrong assumption!

  5. Forecasts

  6. Verifications

  7. Forecast Evaluation • Negative AO and NAO assumption

  8. Forecast Evaluation • Dallas verifies, Chicago close • All other cities not even close to verifying • Persistent trough in Midwest allowed Dallas and Chicago to verify • Trend seems to exist between AO and NAO values, and temperature anomalies • Difficult to forecast AO and NAO

  9. Recommendations • Avoid forecasting extreme anomalies • Pittsburgh was big mistake • Large anomalies occur less frequently • Uncertainty also a factor • Use more than just recent trends • Assumption of negative AO and NAO trend was wrong • Different forecasts would have been made if entire month of February was analyzed

  10. Conclusions • Relationship between AO and NAO values and temperature anomalies seems to exist • Must be careful when looking at AO and NAO trends • More accurate predictions of AO and NAO can lead to better forecasts, especially for Europe and Eastern United States

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