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A framework for possible geoengineering impacts

A framework for possible geoengineering impacts. Dr Nem Vaughan Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia. n.vaughan@uea.ac.uk 31 st January 2011 www.iagp.ac.uk. Outline. Geoengineering carbon and solar Impacts direct and indirect local to global

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A framework for possible geoengineering impacts

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  1. A framework for possible geoengineering impacts Dr Nem Vaughan Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia n.vaughan@uea.ac.uk 31st January 2011 www.iagp.ac.uk

  2. Outline • Geoengineering • carbon and solar • Impacts • direct and indirect • local to global • traceable, attributable • What we do and don’t know about the impact of geoengineering on ecosystems

  3. Outline • Geoengineering • carbon and solar • Impacts • direct and indirect • local to global • traceable, attributable • What we do and don’t know about the impact of geoengineering on ecosystems

  4. Outline • Geoengineering • carbon and solar • Impacts • direct and indirect • local to global • traceable, attributable • What we do and don’t know about the impact of geoengineering on ecosystems

  5. Types of geoengineering Vaughan & Lenton (in press) Climatic Change

  6. Carbon geoengineering Carbon removal Capture Ocean Land Novel Storage Ocean Land Geology

  7. Carbon geoengineering Carbon removal Capture Ocean Land Novel Storage Ocean Land Geology

  8. Carbon geoengineering Carbon removal Capture Ocean Land Novel Storage Ocean Land Geology

  9. Solar geoengineering Reflective approaches Space Stratosphere Troposphere Surface Land Ocean

  10. Solar geoengineering Reflective approaches Space Stratosphere Troposphere Surface Land Ocean

  11. Impacts of carbon geoengineering • Addresses excess of CO2 in the atmosphere • Slow to impact, but lasting • Scale of intervention • human cumulative emissions: 354 PgC • afforestation (300PgC) • Competition with other land use/space • water, fertiliser, fast growing species, monoculture? • Storage viability • terrestrial, ocean or geology • Very rapid removal may cause natural sinks to release carbon

  12. Impacts of carbon geoengineering • Addresses excess of CO2 in the atmosphere • Slow to impact, but lasting • Scale of intervention • human cumulative emissions: 354 PgC • afforestation (300PgC) • Competition with other land use/space • water, fertiliser, fast growing species, monoculture? • Storage viability • terrestrial, ocean or geology • Very rapid removal may cause natural sinks to release carbon

  13. Impacts of carbon geoengineering • Addresses excess of CO2 in the atmosphere • Slow to impact, but lasting • Scale of intervention • human cumulative emissions: 354 PgC • afforestation (300PgC) • Competition with other land use/space • water, fertiliser, fast growing species, monoculture? • Storage viability • terrestrial, ocean or geology • Very rapid removal may cause natural sinks to release carbon

  14. Impacts of carbon geoengineering • Addresses excess of CO2 in the atmosphere • Slow to impact, but lasting • Scale of intervention • human cumulative emissions: 354 PgC • afforestation (300PgC) • Competition with other land use/space • water, fertiliser, fast growing species, monoculture? • Storage viability • terrestrial, ocean or geology • Very rapid removal may cause natural sinks to release carbon

  15. Impacts of carbon geoengineering • Addresses excess of CO2 in the atmosphere • Slow to impact, but lasting • Scale of intervention • human cumulative emissions: 354 PgC • afforestation (300PgC) • Competition with other land use/space • water, fertiliser, fast growing species, monoculture? • Storage viability • terrestrial, ocean or geology • Very rapid removal may cause natural sinks to release carbon

  16. Impacts of solar geoengineering • potentially quick to change temperature • addresses a symptom (not the cause) • rate of change • potentially quite fast (on and off) • long term commitment? • ocean acidification • untreated or possible worsened • decreased global precipitation • evident in some modelling results • residual warming • i.e. still warmer in poles

  17. Impacts of solar geoengineering • potentially quick to change temperature • addresses a symptom (not the cause) • rate of change • potentially quite fast (on and off) • long term commitment? • ocean acidification • untreated or possible worsened • decreased global precipitation • evident in some modelling results • residual warming • i.e. still warmer in poles

  18. Impacts of solar geoengineering • potentially quick to change temperature • addresses a symptom (not the cause) • rate of change • potentially quite fast (on and off) • long term commitment? • ocean acidification • untreated or possible worsened • decreased global precipitation • evident in some modelling results • residual warming • i.e. still warmer in poles

  19. Impacts of solar geoengineering • potentially quick to change temperature • addresses a symptom (not the cause) • rate of change • potentially quite fast (on and off) • long term commitment? • ocean acidification • untreated or possible worsened • decreased global precipitation • evident in some modelling results • residual warming • i.e. still warmer in poles

  20. Impacts of solar geoengineering • potentially quick to change temperature • addresses a symptom (not the cause) • rate of change • potentially quite fast (on and off) • long term commitment? • ocean acidification • untreated or possible worsened • decreased global precipitation • evident in some modelling results • residual warming • i.e. still warmer in poles

  21. Impacts of solar geoengineering • potentially quick to change temperature • addresses a symptom (not the cause) • rate of change • potentially quite fast (on and off) • long term commitment? • ocean acidification • untreated or possible worsened • decreased global precipitation • evident in some modelling results • residual warming • i.e. still warmer in poles

  22. Types of geoengineering Reflective approaches Carbon removal Space Capture Ocean Land Novel Stratosphere Storage Ocean Land Geology Troposphere Surface Land Ocean

  23. Impacts of geoengineering • Impacts • direct or indirect • intended or unintended • Local, regional, global • displaced spatially and/or temporally • Example: marine stratocumulus albedo change • Example: large scale afforestation

  24. Impacts of geoengineering • Impacts • direct or indirect • intended or unintended • Local, regional, global • displaced spatially and/or temporally • Example: marine stratocumulus albedo change • Example: large scale afforestation

  25. Impacts of geoengineering • Impacts • direct or indirect • intended or unintended • Local, regional, global • displaced spatially and/or temporally • Example: marine stratocumulus albedo change • Example: large scale afforestation

  26. Example: Marine stratocumulus albedo change Global Local Direct global cooling regional cooling surface water cooling Indirect

  27. Example: Marine stratocumulus albedo change Global Local Direct global cooling regional cooling surface water cooling water column light attenuation Indirect delayed precipitation water column stratification

  28. Example: Marine stratocumulus albedo change Global Local Direct global cooling regional cooling surface water cooling water column light attenuation Indirect delayed precipitation water column stratification Changes to ocean carbon sink ? impact on phytoplankton? perturb ENSO?

  29. Example: Large scale afforestation Global Local Direct water demand global cooling regional albedo change fertiliser addition Indirect atmospheric chemistry - VOC production fertiliser runoff

  30. Example: Large scale afforestation Global Local Direct water demand global cooling regional albedo change fertiliser addition Indirect atmospheric chemistry - VOC production fertiliser runoff regional impact on water cycle? impact on river systems?

  31. Impacts of geoengineering • Traceable, attributable • spatially and/or temporally displaced • Ability to distinguish from natural variability and/or anthropogenic climate change? • particularly for solar geoengineering • Example: Atlantic sea surface temperatures • Example: Southern Ocean

  32. Impacts of geoengineering • Traceable, attributable • spatially and/or temporally displaced • Ability to distinguish from natural variability and/or anthropogenic climate change? • particularly for solar geoengineering • Example: Atlantic sea surface temperatures • Example: Southern Ocean

  33. Impacts of geoengineering • Traceable, attributable • spatially and/or temporally displaced • Ability to distinguish from natural variability and/or anthropogenic climate change? • particularly for solar geoengineering • Example: Atlantic sea surface temperatures • Example: Southern Ocean

  34. Example: Atlantic • Modelling solar geoengineering • (Lunt et al 2008, Latham et al 2008) • increased Atlantic North-South gradient in sea surface temperatures • cooling in South Atlantic relative to North Atlantic • Atlantic N-S gradient • controlling factor in West African Monsoon activity • well correlated with precipitation in the Sahel (Peyrille et al 2007) • correlated with reduction in dry season rainfall in West Amazonian (Cox et al 2008) • Potential impacts on Amazon or West African Monsoon • Traceable? Attributable?

  35. Example: Atlantic • Modelling solar geoengineering • (Lunt et al 2008, Latham et al 2008) • increased Atlantic North-South gradient in sea surface temperatures • cooling in South Atlantic relative to North Atlantic • Atlantic N-S gradient • controlling factor in West African Monsoon activity • well correlated with precipitation in the Sahel (Peyrille et al 2007) • correlated with reduction in dry season rainfall in West Amazonian (Cox et al 2008) • Potential impacts on Amazon or West African Monsoon • Traceable? Attributable?

  36. Example: Atlantic • Modelling solar geoengineering • (Lunt et al 2008, Latham et al 2008) • increased Atlantic North-South gradient in sea surface temperatures • cooling in South Atlantic relative to North Atlantic • Atlantic N-S gradient • controlling factor in West African Monsoon activity • well correlated with precipitation in the Sahel (Peyrille et al 2007) • correlated with reduction in dry season rainfall in West Amazonian (Cox et al 2008) • Potential impacts on Amazon or West African Monsoon • Traceable? Attributable?

  37. Example: Atlantic • Modelling solar geoengineering • (Lunt et al 2008, Latham et al 2008) • increased Atlantic North-South gradient in sea surface temperatures • cooling in South Atlantic relative to North Atlantic • Atlantic N-S gradient • controlling factor in West African Monsoon activity • well correlated with precipitation in the Sahel (Peyrille et al 2007) • correlated with reduction in dry season rainfall in West Amazonian (Cox et al 2008) • Potential impacts on Amazon or West African Monsoon • Traceable? Attributable?

  38. Example: Southern Ocean • Stratospheric ozone depletion (Tilmes et al 2008) • Stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica • key driver of observed changes in the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) in recent decades (Thompson & Solomon, 2002) • which is also contributed to by greenhouse gas forcing (Perlwitz et al 2008) • Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) • Observed strengthening of Southern Ocean winds has been attributed to the shift of the SAM to a positive state (Perlwitz et al 2008) • Reduced efficiency of Southern Ocean carbon sink • The strengthening of these winds has been suggested to cause a reduction in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean carbon sink (Le Quere et al 2007) • Traceable? Attributable?

  39. Example: Southern Ocean • Stratospheric ozone depletion (Tilmes et al 2008) • Stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica • key driver of observed changes in the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) in recent decades (Thompson & Solomon, 2002) • which is also contributed to by greenhouse gas forcing (Perlwitz et al 2008) • Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) • Observed strengthening of Southern Ocean winds has been attributed to the shift of the SAM to a positive state (Perlwitz et al 2008) • Reduced efficiency of Southern Ocean carbon sink • The strengthening of these winds has been suggested to cause a reduction in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean carbon sink (Le Quere et al 2007) • Traceable? Attributable?

  40. Example: Southern Ocean • Stratospheric ozone depletion (Tilmes et al 2008) • Stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica • key driver of observed changes in the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) in recent decades (Thompson & Solomon, 2002) • which is also contributed to by greenhouse gas forcing (Perlwitz et al 2008) • Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) • Observed strengthening of Southern Ocean winds has been attributed to the shift of the SAM to a positive state (Perlwitz et al 2008) • Reduced efficiency of Southern Ocean carbon sink • The strengthening of these winds has been suggested to cause a reduction in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean carbon sink (Le Quere et al 2007) • Traceable? Attributable?

  41. Example: Southern Ocean • Stratospheric ozone depletion (Tilmes et al 2008) • Stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica • key driver of observed changes in the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) in recent decades (Thompson & Solomon, 2002) • which is also contributed to by greenhouse gas forcing (Perlwitz et al 2008) • Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) • Observed strengthening of Southern Ocean winds has been attributed to the shift of the SAM to a positive state (Perlwitz et al 2008) • Reduced efficiency of Southern Ocean carbon sink • The strengthening of these winds has been suggested to cause a reduction in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean carbon sink (Le Quere et al 2007) • Traceable? Attributable?

  42. What we do (and don’t) know... • Generally very little about ecosystem impacts due to lack of large scale testing... • ...just have extrapolation of natural analogues and/or modelling work • Ecosystem impacts • general terms i.e. carbon or solar • direct and indirect, scale (local to global) • intervention specific, i.e. impacts of biochar • direct and indirect, scale (local to global)

  43. What we do (and don’t) know... • Generally very little about ecosystem impacts due to lack of large scale testing... • ...just have extrapolation of natural analogues and/or modelling work • Ecosystem impacts • general terms i.e. carbon or solar • direct and indirect, scale (local to global) • intervention specific, i.e. impacts of biochar • direct and indirect, scale (local to global)

  44. What we do (and don’t) know... • Generally very little about ecosystem impacts due to lack of large scale testing... • ...just have extrapolation of natural analogues and/or modelling work • Ecosystem impacts • general terms i.e. carbon or solar • direct and indirect, scale (local to global) • intervention specific, i.e. impacts of biochar • direct and indirect, scale (local to global)

  45. Conclusions Solar Carbon • Types of geoengineering • Framework for impacts • scale • direct/indirect • Limited information on potential ecosystem impacts

  46. Conclusions Solar Carbon • Types of geoengineering • Framework for impacts • scale • direct/indirect • Limited information on potential ecosystem impacts Global Local Direct Indirect

  47. Conclusions Solar Carbon • Types of geoengineering • Framework for impacts • scale • direct/indirect • Limited information on potential ecosystem impacts Global Local Direct Indirect

  48. Thank you Imagery: freeimages.co.uk, NASA, Carbon Engineering Ltd References Vaughan & Lenton (in press) A review of climate geoengineering proposalsClimatic Change Cox et al (2008) Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution Nature 453:212 Peyrille et al (2007) An idealised two-dimensional framework to study the West African Monsoon. Part I: validation and key controlling factors J AtmosSci64:2765 Lunt et al (2008) ‘Sunshade world’: a fully coupled GCM evaluation of the climatic impacts of geoengineering Geophys Res Lett 35:L12710 Latham et al (2008) Global temperature stabilization via controlled albedo enhancement of low-level maritime clouds Phil Trans R Soc A 366:3969 Thompson & Solomon (2002) Interpretation of recent southern hemisphere climate change. Science 296:895 Le Quere et al (2007) Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change. Science 316:1735 Perlwitz et al (2008) Impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08714 Tilmes et al (2008) The sensitivity of Polar ozone depletion to proposed geoengineering schemes. Science 320:1201

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