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Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography

Jamaica’s Mid-Summer “Dry Spell”. Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. Douglas Gamble Department of Geography and Geology University of North Carolina at Wilmington. March 6, 2008

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Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography

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  1. Jamaica’s Mid-Summer “Dry Spell” Teddy Allen and Dr. Scott Curtis Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. Douglas Gamble Department of Geography and Geology University of North Carolina at Wilmington March 6, 2008 2008 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

  2. OUTLINE • Economic Motivation • Defining the Mid-Summer “Dry Spell” • MSD variability and patterns • Modified Pressure Index • Vegetation Response • Future Work

  3. Dataset grid box nearest Montego Bay

  4. MOTIVATION GDP per capita Jamaica is a relatively poor* nation that largely depends on its agricultural yields for both export and domestic consumption. An improved understanding of the mechanisms of the Mid Summer “Dry-Spell” can have significant impacts upon agricultural productivity and economic prosperity. * Definition of poor neglects significant cultural wealth that Jamaica possesses. ( CIA World FactBook 2007 )

  5. Data Sets • NCEP NCAR monthly Reanalysis 2.5 degree gridded dataset • NASA Global Precipitation • Climatology Project (GPCP) V2 • Terra MODIS spectral imagery

  6. GPCP CLIMATOLOGY 1979 - 2007 Mid Summer “Dry-Spell” Signature mm day-1

  7. Mid-Summer “Dry Spell” Conceptual Model MSD timing July May NAM H divergence upwelling

  8. Mid-Summer “Dry Spell” Pattern Mean pentad gauge precip. Apr. - Nov. 1979-2007

  9. Mid-Summer “Dry Spell” Inter-Annual Variability 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

  10. Average Sea Level Pressure (NCEP NCAR Reanalysis) Apr.–Nov. 1979 - 2007 APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER

  11. Monthly Caribbean Low Level Jet Averages (925mb) Apr.-Nov. 1979-2007 APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER

  12. Monthly GPCP Caribbean Precip. Averages Apr.-Nov. 1979 - 2007 APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER

  13. Average 925mb Divergence 1979-2007 JULY JUNE AUG. SEPT.

  14. Average DifferencesJuly minus May +4mb increase in NASH +5 ms-1 increase in CLLJ -2mm / day decrease in precip.

  15. Modified Bermuda High IndexP Montego Bay – P 30N, 40W BHI 30N, 40W MBHI Montego Bay

  16. MBHI Monthly Climatologies

  17. Modified BHI 2002 GPCP Montego Bay Early Season MBHI 1983 GPCP Montego Bay

  18. Vegetation Response Via Remote Sensing Terra MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) 36 Spectral Bands covering the Earth every 1-2 days 250m resolution Jamaican Region Imagery delivered every 16 days Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Classification through ERDAS Imagine software

  19. April 2006 NIR - red ________ NDVI = NIR + red October 2006

  20. FUTURE WORK NDVI TIME SERIES CLASSIFICATION FARMING PERSPECTIVE ENSO FORCINGS For more info: teddyallen@yahoo.com

  21. Acknowledgements • Dr. Scott Curtis • Dr. Douglas Gamble • Dr. Rosana Nieto-Ferreira • ECU Geography Department • Dr. Peter Robinson and the SERCC • National Science Foundation

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