PM 761 Technology in Emergency Management John Jay college of Criminal Justice

1. PM 761 Technology in Emergency ManagementJohn Jay college of Criminal Justice Murray Turoff Distinguished Professor Emeritus Information Systems Department New Jersey Institute of Technology http:/is.njit.edu/turoff turoff@njit.edu (C) Murray Turoff 2009

2. (C) Murray Turoff 2009

3. Disaster have been with usfor a long time (C) Murray Turoff 2009

4. Katrina (C) Murray Turoff 2009

5. Course Objectives • Cover Requirements for Emergency Preparedness and Management Information Systems • Consider behavior of individuals, groups, organizations, and the public • Consider communications and auxiliary technology • Extreme Events • Evaluating Technology and associated policies • Underlying philosophies • Future Concerns (C) Murray Turoff 2009

6. Other Course Materials • Online bulletin Board System • Discussion threads/conferences/lists • Instructor Instructions, read only • Syllabus for course • Using the discussion system • Lecture Materials, read only • Reading Materials, read only • Introductions • Questions on Lectures • Questions on Reading materials • Questions on assignments • Other Questions • Things to do (for learning), required • Bad Examples of Emergency Management, required • Jokes in Emergency Management • Practice • Café (not on the course topic) (C) Murray Turoff 2009

7. Emergency Response Systems First Presentation Content • Nature of an Emergency • OEP Experience & Wisdom • EMISARI at OEP • DERMIS Conceptual Design • Dynamics Emergency Response Management Information System • General Principles • Auxiliary Supporting Systems • Resource Database Systems • Collaborative Knowledge Systems • Virtual Communities • Social Networks and associated options • Auditing and decision support • Topics & Group Communications • Concluding Remarks (C) Murray Turoff 2009

8. Nature of an Emergency (C) Murray Turoff 2009

9. EmergencyManagementCharacteristics • Unpredictable: • Events • Who will be involved • What information will be needed • What resources will be needed • What actions will be taken, when, where, and by who • No time for training, meeting, or planning • No contingency plan that fits perfectly • Planning should focus on the process (C) Murray Turoff 2009

10. Associated Concerns • Real practitioner team never formed till the emergency occurs • Trust • Conflicting goals • Hundreds to thousands involved • Planners and executers are different individuals • Insufficient networking experience • Insufficient command and control • Disasters do not obey political, social, organizational, geographical boundaries • Many problems occur at interfaces to boundaries – major errors, mistakes • Sometimes called “interoperability” (C) Murray Turoff 2009

11. Emergency Management Requirements • Obtain data, status, views • Monitor conditions • Fill roles on a 24/7 basis • Obtain expertise, liaison, action takers, reporters • Defer to expertise and experience • Need trust and shared objectives • Draft contingencies • Validate options • Obtain approvals, delegate authority • Coordinate actions, take actions, evaluate actions, conduct oversight • Innovate when necessary • Evaluate outcomes • Modify scenarios and plans • Modify systems and operations • Correct CAUSES of prior errors (C) Murray Turoff 2009

12. Emergency ManagementPhases & Activities • Preparedness (analysis, planning, and evaluation): • Analysis of the threats • Analysis and evaluation of performance (and errors); • Planning for mitigation; • Planning for detection and intelligence; • Planning for response; • Planning for recovery and/or normalization • Continuous correction of operations and plans • Design of support systems and relationships • Training • Mitigation • Detection • Warning • Response • Recovery/normalization (C) Murray Turoff 2009

13. Organizational Emergency Situations • Strike • Court Case • Cost overrun • Delivery delay • New regulation • Terrorist action • Supply shortage • Natural Disaster • Man Made Disaster • Production delay • Product malfunction • Contract Negotiation • Loss of a key customer • Responding to an RFP • Loss of key employee(s) • New Competitive product (C) Murray Turoff 2009

14. Positive Emergency Situations • Responding to an RFP • Winning a large contract • Developing a new product • Creating a long term plan • Understanding and responding to new regulations • Taking over another company • Too many orders for a product • Employee shortage • Shortage of raw materials • Production problems • Creating a time urgent task force or committee • Matrix Management (C) Murray Turoff 2009

15. Business Continuityand “other” • Very similar concerns to Emergency Management • Most business rely on external resources and support provided by the community they reside in • However utilities, chemical plants, military bases, etc, must deal with the problems their existence can create • Law Enforcement has a unique characteristic in trying to detect man made threats and dealing with them beforehand rather than those produced by nature • Citizen, medical, community and Private Organization preparedness and management • Interoperability is a major concern • Should be no real professional difference in EM between public and private sectors (C) Murray Turoff 2009

16. Lessons of 9/11 for Design • Vulnerability of a physical command and control center • Reductionism applied to • Dynamic information • Responder responsibilities • Responsibilities of Agencies • Communication systems • Threat-Rigidity Syndrome • Clear Exceptions to Plans and innovations • Ferries as ambulances • Use of N.J. National Guard telephone network via guard members • GIS database critical to recovery (e.g. bathtub) • Recovery a major undertaking (e.g. response continued: contamination) (C) Murray Turoff 2009

17. Katrina Experiences • Lack of adequate plans for things like evacuation • Flawed local planning process • Lack of considering behavioral implications • Evacuation, civil employees, citizen trust (axes) • Interrelationships of land management and change of threat • Obsolete data (flood prediction maps) • No overall responsibility for long term consequences of many actions by different entities • Loss of local command and control facilities • Contamination of waters • Lack of coordination among organizations of all types • Ice Fiasco, Citizen boat owners, Coast Guard, Red Cross, medication • Lack of initiatives • Lack of expertise • National Guard Status (C) Murray Turoff 2009

18. Evacuation Example • Evacuation Plans are quite common but usually at a high level without answering the problem of exceptions • How do you get people to evacuate in phases which some plans called for? • What happens to first responders that want to insure there family gets out? • Does a gas station attendant stay on the job? • Does a food or grocery worker stay on the job? • How do locals get last minute supplies? • Does the bus driver leave his family behind? • How do you handle accidents in an evacuation? • Can medical, police, and public works communicate to be able to keep cars moving? • Akin to building an information system under the assumption nothing will go wrong and all incoming data is perfect. • No exceptions are allowed • Accidents, stalled vehicles, traffic jams, lack of gas, food, water, etc. (C) Murray Turoff 2009

19. Planning is Critical • Nothing works without good plans • Planning is a continuous process • Planning needs to be done with the involvement of those that will be executing them. • Planning must focus on defining the process, responsibilities, roles, and the resources, not the decisions • Planning has to include recognizing prior mistakes/shortcomings and correcting them • Planning has to be tied to generation of mitigation options (Long term cost saving ratio 3-5) (C) Murray Turoff 2009

20. OEP Experience & Wisdom Office of Emergency Preparedness Executive Office of the President (C) Murray Turoff 2009

21. Office of Emergency Preparedness (OEP) • Existed until 1973 in the Executive Offices • Derivative of OSS (Office of Special Services) • Centralized civilian command and control in any crisis situation: • natural disasters, national strikes, commodity shortages, wartime situations, industry priorities, wage price freeze • Command resources of all federal, state, local and industrial sources • Could incorporate personnel as needed from any source • Did contingency planning and utilized large community of experts and professionals on a national bases • EMISARI functioned in the GSA until the late 80’s, manual: http://library.njit.edu/archives/cccc-materials/ Report ISG-117: The Resource Interruption Monitoring System, October 1974 GSA (C) Murray Turoff 2009

22. OEP Wisdom I • An emergency system must be regularly used to work in a real emergency • People are working intense 14-18 hour days and cannot be interrupted • Roles rather than person of the moment • Timely tacking of what is happening is critical • Delegation of authority a must and oversight of delegated actions is critical • Providing related data and information up, down, and laterally is critical • No way to know who will be concerned or contribute to a particular problem • Plans are in constant modification (C) Murray Turoff 2009

23. OEP Wisdom II • Professional observers needed and trusted • Learning and adaptation of response plans from training and real events is a necessity • In a crisis exceptions and variations to the norm are common • The critical problem of the moment collects attention and resources (C) Murray Turoff 2009

24. OEP Wisdom III • Roles are the constant in an emergency and who is in a role may vary unexpectedly • Training people in multiple roles is very desirable • Roles and their privileges must be defined in the response system (and the software) • Understanding what is reality as an objective • Coordination under unpredictability • 24/7 operation (C) Murray Turoff 2009

25. OEP Wisdom IV • Supporting confidence in a decision by the best possible timely information • Necessary Properties • Free exchange of information • Delegation of authority • Decision accountability • Decision oversight • Information source identification as to source, date-time, reliability • Information overload reduction • Important computer design challenge (C) Murray Turoff 2009

26. OEP Wisdom V • The crux of the coordination problem for large crisis response groups is that the exact actions and responsibilities of each individual cannot be pre- determined. • Coordination by feedback not by plan • Realistic information on current conditions determines actions taken • Paradox of Executive Planning (C) Murray Turoff 2009

27. Recent Supporting WisdomHale 1997 “. . . the key obstacle to effective crisis response is the communication needed to access relevant data or expertise and to piece together an accurate understandable picture of reality” (C) Murray Turoff 2009

28. Other Supporting WisdomDynes & Quarenteli 1977 “Coordination by feedback viewed as failure of planning and failure of coordination by most organizations. Instead plan should focus on improving and facilitating feedback” Plan the process and not the actions. Tie actions to observable measures and trust in expertise and experience The future is too variable to predict what outcomes should be as part of a plan—a disaster or a new product (C) Murray Turoff 2009

29. Other Supporting WisdomHorsely & Barker, 2002 • Information Overload is typical • People perform at higher levels of ability then usual or expected • Heterogeneous groups and individuals • People work together who do not normally do so • Quick trust and spontaneous virtual teams • Cannot predict who will be involved • Cannot predict who will carry out what role at what time • Community and Public relations is critical (confidence and trust) • Consider hurricane evacuation in Texas after Katrina • People panicking is very rare especially if authority is trusted (C) Murray Turoff 2009

30. Threat Rigidity Syndrome • Stress sets in, possible from: • Fatigue, long hours, cognitive conflicts, high uncertainty • Information Overload and/or uncertainty of right data being there • Responsibilities for lives and as lives are lost based upon decisions made doubt and uncertainty in abilities set in • Is better information going to show up in time? • Golden hour for medical treatment • Choice of following a formula or engaging in problem solving, creativity, and/or improvisation (C) Murray Turoff 2009

31. COGNITIVE ABSORPTION (Agarwal and Karahanna, 2000) • Psychological state of deep involvement • Temporal dissociation • Focused immersion • Heightened enjoyment • Curiosity or challenge • Observed for computer game players and FAA controllers • May lessen threat rigidity • It can be a property of EM operators in a command and control environment (C) Murray Turoff 2009

32. Mental Questions that Cause Stress • Is the information I have a realistic picture of the situation? • Should I wait longer to make a decision and then I will have better information? • Does someone have the information I need to make a better decision? • How many more lives will be lost or saved if I wait for more information? • Can I trust the person taking over my role or should I work longer? • Will that person have what I know and did and will I know what he did easily when I return? (C) Murray Turoff 2009

33. Model of Threat Rigidity (C) Murray Turoff 2009

34. Emergency Response Critical Success Factors • The priority problem of the moment is the magnet that gathers the data, information, people, and resources to deal with it • The integration of qualitative and quantitative information with measures of timeliness, confidence and priority is critical • Having pre-established existing communities of people and resources to draw upon • Knowing who and what is available in real time • Learning from each experience and modifying lore for the future • Allow participants to discover the problems they are concerned about or can contribute to (open architecture) • Thousands of users possible but only 5 to 25 focus on any one problem and is unpredictable beyond basic roles. Depends on circumstances of surrounding problem. • Decisions being made on incomplete information in a time urgent manner (C) Murray Turoff 2009

35. Open Issues • People can work 36 to 48 hours continuously in some crisis situations • How do we really know when stress and/or fatigue is interfering with their judgment? • How do we create quick trust in this environment? • How do we encourage creativity rather than rigidity? • How do you design an information system to encourage creativity? (C) Murray Turoff 2009

36. Emergency communication design concepts • Provide signals of a communication process • Content can be the address • Address a message to any data item whether quantitative or qualitative • Who created or modified text or data and when it occurred is always tracked • Status of inputs always visible • Contribution Attributes: confidence, priority, source • Text can be program: active or adaptive text • Human roles in the software (varied privileges)Lateral (two way) linkages of material • Do bookkeeping of communications for user • Optimize group/team processes rather than individual processes. • Associate qualitative and quantitative information (C) Murray Turoff 2009

37. EMISARI • Emergency Management Information System And Reference Index • An “emissary” to those on the front lines • Created in one week as a derivative of an existing Delphi Conferencing System for the 1971 Wage Price Freeze (C) Murray Turoff 2009

38. EMISARI 1971 • Emergency Management Information System And Reference Index • Developed at OEP on a UNIVAC 1108 using EXEC VIII – early multiprocessor design (48 bit words) • Sharable database structures with individual word locking/unlocking in hardware • First used for Wage Price Freeze in 1971 • Based upon software developed for virtual expert communities as a Policy Delphi Process • Used until late 80’s for strikes, commodity shortages, and some natural disasters. • Typically 100-400 users, 20-50 government units (C) Murray Turoff 2009

39. EMISARI Objects • Administrator (any object can be changed or created in a few minutes) • Contacts (people) • Conferences & Notebooks • Data elements, tables, & matrix forms • Authorship & time of data by contacts • Label, definition, & contact • Data Status: unavailable now, never, temporary, funny • Directory • Contacts • Assignments / Responsibilities • Available objects • Online real time chat • Separate message system • Send messages to any data item or any contact (C) Murray Turoff 2009

40. Send Message to Data Element • Reporter contact could explain what was wrong with it • Analyst could provide their interpretation of what it meant • Contact could indicate he or she needed something different or complementary then current reported item • Any contact could make comment about what it means to them like suggesting it needed a detailed discussion in some conference on the system • What databases do you use where this might be a handy feature? • Still not a standard feature (C) Murray Turoff 2009

41. EMISARI Functions • Message sent to contact, data element or form • Discussion threads attached to objects • Report formulation • Virtual references between any objects simpler html form. • Could include current version of any data element, text, message, etc in any other text item (&<m###, c##C###, n##p### d### v### t###) • Exception reporting using notifications (new entries using certain key) • Indexes • Adaptive by use, most popular words in a two week period • Tracking misses, listing words searched but not found • Indirect communications (twitter property) (C) Murray Turoff 2009

42. Data Object Types • For single variable, vector, or table • Administrator • Defines element, label, definition • Assigns it to contact • Only one who can fill it in • Always records date-time, author, and indicated special status • Any contact can search directory entries of all data types and definitions (C) Murray Turoff 2009

43. EMISARI Case tracking • Case Template • Steps in process of a case • Actions at each step • Who can take action • What step is triggered by action • Person responsible for next step notified automatically • Others notified of status changes • Discussion thread attached to case • Used for violations of wage price freeze • Used for shortage violations (oil, natural gas, chlorine, etc.) • Originally design for tracking property disposal by the federal government • Defining templates (many laws governing process) turned up some infinite cycles taking 5 to 10 years • Emergencies need decision tracking software of this type. (C) Murray Turoff 2009

44. EMISARI Notebooks • Policies, Objectives, Laws, etc. and needed Interpretations • News • Actions Taken • Limited Writers, many readers • Adaptive Index • Last 500 words searched • Last 500 words not found by frequency requested • Indirect communication path to those creating the information (C) Murray Turoff 2009

45. Two interesting cases • Cost of living council • Meets once a week to make policy rulings • List of not found words and their frequency supplied to the staff to set agenda for meeting • Notebook of interpretations used by people all over the US to provide a basis for actions • Lawyers that make interpretations of policy in specific cases • Refused to use EMISARI at start (used teletype messages) • Had same issue raised by different organizations and interpretations made by different lawyers. • Contradictions found by Washington Post and led to them having to use the system • Free access by those asking questions to all questions and all interpretations • News Stories (C) Murray Turoff 2009

46. EMISARI Disruption Model • Commerce Input-Output Model • Thousands of classifications • Interrupt sub sector in given locality by strike or other disaster • Calculate probable greatest impacts in rest of country • Examination and prediction of where problems are going to happen in strikes, shortages, disruptions • Results available in about four hours • Tape driven system at the time (C) Murray Turoff 2009

47. Emergency communication meta processes • Computer Augmentation • Regulation: • Sequencing, iteration, synchronization, participation, assignment, tracking • Facilitation: • Organizing, summarizing, filtering, exposing, integrating, indexing, notifying, classifying, motivating (C) Murray Turoff 2009

48. Group Communications design concepts I • Provide signals of a communication process • Stored notifications of actions by others or by system • Status of members of the group • Content can be the address • Who created or modified text or data and when they did it is always tracked • What a person has seen or not seen in database is also always tracked • Text can be program: active or adaptive (C) Murray Turoff 2009

49. Group Communications design concepts II • Flexibility humans can use in other media • Varied access privileges between members and objects • Human roles in the software • Lateral two way linkages of material • Do bookkeeping of communications for user • Improve group process by reduction of process losses • Relate qualitative and quantitative information (C) Murray Turoff 2009

50. Asynchronous opportunities of Group Communications • Independence of • Individual problem solving • Group problem solving • Meta process & synchronization • Backtracking • Changing views • Individual control • Equal participation • Mixed cognitive styles • Bottom/up vs. Top/down • Data vs. Abstraction (C) Murray Turoff 2009