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AGREPS – ACCESS Global and Regional EPS

AGREPS – ACCESS Global and Regional EPS. Michael Naughton, David Smith, Asri Sulaiman CAWCR Earth System Modelling Program GIFS-TIGGE Working Group WMO, Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2011. AGREPS. ACCESS Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator

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AGREPS – ACCESS Global and Regional EPS

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  1. AGREPS – ACCESS Global and Regional EPS Michael Naughton, David Smith, Asri Sulaiman CAWCR Earth System Modelling Program GIFS-TIGGE Working Group WMO, Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2011

  2. AGREPS • ACCESS • Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator • Bureau of Meteorology / CSIRO / Australian universities earth system modelling collaboration based on UK Met Office UM system • ACCESS NWP system operational from 1 Sep 2009 • AGREPS • ACCESS version of Met Office MOGREPS ensemble system • BoM Global Ensemble 2001-2010 • T119 L19 Global Spectral Model • Initial condition perturbations based on T42L19 2-day SH & NH singular vectors • 33 members, 10-day forecast The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  3. ACCESS-R 12 km AGREPS-R 24 km ACCESS-G 40km (N320) – 25km (N512) AGREPS-G 80km (N144) – 60km (N216) AGREPS – ACCESS short-range ensemble 24-member ensemble designed for short-range forecasting • Regional ensemble over Australian Region (24km resolution, 70 levels) to T+72 • Global ensemble (60km resolution, 70 levels) to T+120 • ETKF for initial condition perts • Stochastic model perturbations • Global run at 0Z and 12Z. Regional run at 6Z & 18Z HI-RES 5km Currently running at 37.5 & 80 km The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  4. AGREPS current status and near-term plans AGREPS global and Australian regional systems at 80 km & 37.5 km have been implemented and are running daily in research mode since middle of 2011 AGREPS current version based on 2009 MOGREPS version; currently working on upgrading components to current MOGREPS versions Operational implementation date not yet determined • Operational implementation at current resolution is possible on current Sun/Oracle Constellation computer • Operational implementation at intended 60 km & 24 km resolution will require computer upgrade, remains TBD The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  5. Verification of AGREPS cf ECEPS, GASP-EPSMSLP Brier score Aust-NZ region 2 months period 7 Sep 2009 – 7 Nov 2009 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  6. Spread-skill relationship for AGREPS cf ECEPS Aust-NZ region 6 mths period Feb to July 2011 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  7. Spread-skill relationship for AGREPS cf KMAEPS KMA plot from UM Users Wkshop talk Different domains, forecast lengths, time periods The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  8. Spread-skill relationship for AGREPS-R cf AGREPS-G Aust-NZ region 2 mths period mid-June to mid-Aug The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  9. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  10. AGREPS science • Ensembles will be key element of data assimilation through provision of capability for flow-dependent error covariances; we aim to incorporate Met Office hybrid DA approach. • Ensembles at high resolution will also be needed for SREP; although not included in current SREP plans, as they’re not part of the funded project. • Investigation of approaches to combining deterministic and EPS forecasts in GOCF/GFE is being considered. • Comparison of singular vector perturbations with ETKF perturbations in MOGREPS is being considered. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

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