WRAP RMC 2002 Base Year Modeling and Analysis

1. WRAP RMC 2002 Base Year Modeling and Analysis Zac Adelman, Andy Holland, Kim Hanisak, James Wallace Carolina Environmental Program University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Mohammad Omary University of California, Riverside WRAP Modeling Forum Meeting, San Francisco, CA March 8-9, 2005

2. 2004 work plan emissions modeling tasks WRAP 2002 emissions modeling database Emissions modeling and 2004 milestones Deliverables and QA products 2002 emissions modeling results Outstanding issues and next steps Discussion WRAP RMC 2002 Base Year Modeling and Analysis

3. Build WRAP 2002 emissions database Model and evaluate preliminary 2002 base emissions on the RPO 36-km and WRAP 12-km modeling grids Simulate emissions perturbations for CMAQ sensitivity simulations Model and evaluate emissions using the Advanced Plume Treatment for large stationary point sources Evaluate missing emissions sources and explore representing them in the RMC modeling Improve RMC emissions modeling infrastructure WRAP RMC 2004 Work Plan Emissions Modeling Goals

4. Task 3-1: Base 2002 36-km emissions Winter/summer by 01/2004 Annual by 03/2004 Task 3-2: Several upgrades to base emissions TBD as data becomes available Task 3-3: Base 2002 12-km emissions 07/2004 Task 3-4: Emissions sensitivity simulations TBD as data becomes available Task 3-5: APT emissions inventory 08/2004 WRAP RMC 2004 Work Plan Tasks and Deliverables

5. WRAP RMC 2004 Work PlanDeliverable Status

6. Goal: Collect, model, and QA actual or placeholder 2002 emissions inventories for the U.S., Canada, and Mexico U.S. inventory sources: WRAP inventory contractors (ENVIRON, E.H. Pechan), other RPO’s, U.S. EPA Canadian inventory sources: U.S. EPA/Environment Canada Mexican inventory sources: U.S. EPA/DRI SMOKE ancillary emissions data: U.S. EPA/CEP Meteorology data: WRAP RMC WRAP 2002 Emissions Modeling Database

7. Inventory source categories: stationary area, onroad mobile, nonroad mobile, stationary point, fire, biogenic Source refinements made by the RMC for source apportionment and sensitivities Stationary area  area, anthropogenic dust, NH3 Nonroad mobile  nonroad, offshore mobile, road dust Stationary point  point, offshore point, fires WRAP 2002 Emissions Modeling Database

8. WRAP 2002 Emissions Simulations

9. Pre02a_36: Winter/summer test simulation for developing SMOKE scripts, testing QA protocol, and initial data collection Pre02b_36: Annual simulation with actual 2002 WRAP inventories, NEI96 grown to 2002 inventories for rest of U.S., 1995 Canadian inventory, 1999 Mexican inventory Pre02c_36: Annual simulation with addition of 2002 rx fires and wildfires and 2018 BSM ag fires to Pre02b Pre02d_36and Pre02d_12: Annual simulations with U.S. windblown dust and NH3 emissions, actual 2002 VISTAS inventories, NEI2002 for rest of U.S., updated 2002 WRAP rx and wildfire inventories, 2000 Canadian non-point inventory Pre02e_36 and Pre02f_36: Annual simulations for assessing impact of revised WRAP 2002 fire inventories on modeling WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling 2004 Milestones

10. Pre02b_12: One-month test simulation for setting up modeling on the WRAP 12km grid Pre02c_36_PinG: One-month test simulation for testing the Advanced Plume Treatment (APT) for top 100 NOx and SO2 point sources in the WRAP region Pre02c_36s01: Two-month non-road diesel retrofit sensitivity WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Additional Simulations

11. WRAP RMC 2002 Emissions Modeling Summary

12. SMOKE scripts ASCII emissions input file database Binary CMAQ-ready emissions files (per source category per day) SMOKE QA reports Emissions QA graphics and websites summarizing each simulation Bugzilla database of modeling correspondences CVS archive of all model inputs at the RMC Technical documentation for each major simulation Tech transfer and maintenance of SMOKE and emissions modeling data and QA summaries WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Deliverables and QA Products

13. WRAP RMC Emissions ModelingPre02c_36 Disk Use and Timing

14. Preliminary 2002 modeling an iterative process New data and corrections collected for each new simulation As simulations complete post QA products to RMC website: input/output file lists, emissions summary plots SMOKE QA reports created and compared to previous simulations SMOKE output files passed to air quality modelers for input to CMAQ Technical documentation generated and archived to include in the RMC Annual Report WRAP RMC 2002 Emissions Modeling Results

15. Stationary Area Upgraded NEI96 grown to 2002 with preliminary NEI2002 for non-WRAP states Removed NH3 SCC’s represented by ENVIRON NH3 model from all U.S. inventories Removed fugitive dust SCC’s repsresented from all U.S. inventories Add VISTAS and CENRAP area-source fire inventories; removed these fire sources from the non-WRAP stationary area inventory Stationary Point Replaced CENRAP records in WRAP inventory with NEI2002 records Add VISTAS hourly CEM inventory and temporal profiles for modeling sources in the VISTAS region Pre02d Inventory Summary

16. Nonroad Mobile Upgraded NEI96 grown to 2002 with preliminary NEI2002 for non-WRAP states Removed refueling SCC’s represented by MOBILE6 from WRAP inventory Split shipping SCC into in-port and ocean-going sources; allocated ocean-going sources to marine grid cells within 25 miles of the coast On Road Mobile Upgraded NEI99 to NEI2002 for non-WRAP states Offshore Mobile Add explicit offshore mobile category derived from non-road mobile shipping SCC’s. Pre02d Inventory Summary

17. Fugitive Dust Add explicit fugitive category that uses an inventory with county-based transport fractions Windblown Dust Add gridded emissions from WRAP windblown dust model for U.S. sources Agricultural and Natural Ammonia Add gridded emissions from ENVIRON NH3 model for U.S. sources; replacement emissions for SCC’s in the stationary area inventory Pre02d Inventory Summary

18. Prescribed Fire Replace WRAP 2002 prescribed fire inventory with revised inventories that differentiate between natural and anthropogenic events Wildfire Upgraded to revised 2002 inventory for WRAP states Add 2002 VISTAS fire inventory Biogenic Upgraded white spruce and fir emissions factors based on revised U.S. EPA data Canada Upgraded all non-point inventory to preliminary 2000 National Canadian Inventory Pre02d Inventory Summary

19. Wildfire Upgraded to revised 2002 inventory for WRAP states Add 2002 VISTAS fire inventory Offshore Mobile Add explicit offshore mobile category derived from non-road mobile shipping SCC’s. Pre02d Inventory Summary

20. Annual US Emissions TotalsPreliminary 2002 WRAP Modeling

21. Annual WRAP Region Emissions TotalsPreliminary 2002 WRAP Modeling

22. Area NH3 Model Biogenic On Road Mobile Nonroad Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust Windblown Dust Point Offshore Point NRx Fire ARx Fire Wildfire Ag Fire

23. Pre02d CO Emissions Contributionsby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)

24. Pre02d NOx Emissions Contributionsby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)

25. Pre02d NH3 Emissions Contributionsby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)

26. Pre02d SO2 Emissions Contributionsby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)

27. Pre02d PM2.5 Emissions Contributionsby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)

28. Pre02d PM10 Emissions Contributionsby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)

29. Pre02d PMC Emissions Contributionsby WRAP State(Color key on Pie Chart Slide)

30. Pre02d Stationary Area SourceNOx Annual Emissions Density

31. Pre02d Fugitive DustPMC Annual Emissions Density

32. WRAP 2002 Stationary Area SourceNH3 Emissions Density Differences: Pre02d-Pre02c

33. Pre02d ENVIRON NH3 ModelNH3 Annual Emissions Density

34. Pre02d WRAP Windblown DustPM10 Annual Emissions Density

35. Pre02d Stationary Point SourceSO2 Annual Emissions Density

36. Pre02d Agricultural FirePM2.5 Annual Emissions Density

37. Pre02d Anthropogenic Prescribed FirePM2.5 Annual Emissions Density

38. Pre02d Natural Prescribed FirePM2.5 Annual Emissions Density

39. Pre02d WildfirePM2.5 Annual Emissions Density

40. Pre02d Natural Prescribed FirePM2.5 Annual Emissions Density

41. Substitute actual 2002 RPO emissions inventories for place-holder NEI2002 inventories Replace the 1999 BRAVO Mexico inventory with 2000 ERG inventory Replace the 1999 BRAVO Gulf of Mexico offshore point inventory with the 2002 MMS inventory Replace the preliminary 2000 Canadian inventory with the final 2000 inventory, including point sources Model Canada and Mexico with local holidays Add missing emissions sources: sea salt, volcanoes, in-flight air craft, commercial shipping lanes Upgrade RMC computers to SMOKE version 2.1 WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Outstanding Issues

42. Include the CENRAP, MW RPO, and MANE-VU actual 2002 inventories in the WRAP 2002 modeling Include the Canadian 2000 inventories including point sources in the WRAP 2002 modeling Prioritize the missing emissions sources to add to the WRAP 2002 modeling and work on including the more important sources in the next round of modeling Improve the Canadian and Mexican emissions data: spatial surrogates, temporal profiles, local holidays, etc. Investigate the data gaps for Canada and Mexico that need to be filled to calculate emissions with the NH3 and windblown dust models 2018 future year base and sensitivity modeling WRAP RMC Emissions Modeling Next Steps