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????? ??????. ????? ?????? ?????- ????????? ??????: ?- 2002 ??? ???? ?????? ????? 50.5% ?????? ?? 42.7% ???? 2009. ????? ?????? ?????? ???????? . ?????? ??????? ??? ????? ???? 32.8% ??????, ???? 4 ?????. ????? OECD ??? 40.5%. ????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ???????? ?????????. ????? ??? ????? ??? ?-
E N D
1. ??? ?????
??????????? ?????? ????? ?? ???
???? ?????
?????????? ??-?????? ????? ?? ??? ?? ??????? ?? ???? ?????? ??????? ?????? 2011-12 ????? ???? ?????
2. ????? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????- ????????? ??????: ?- 2002 ??? ???? ?????? ????? 50.5% ?????? ?? 42.7% ???? 2009.
????? ?????? ?????? ???????? . ?????? ??????? ??? ????? ???? 32.8% ??????, ???? 4 ?????. ????? OECD ??? 40.5%.
????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ???????? ?????????.
????? ??? ????? ??? ?-35.9% ?-2002 ??? 31.3% ?-2009.
?????? ?? ?????? ????? ??? ?-4.4% ?-2002 (6.9% ?-2003) ?-0.2% ?-2007 ???? ?????. (?-2008 – 1.9% ?-2009 – 4.2%).
3. ????? ?? ??????? ??? [?????? ?? ??? ?????].
??????? ????? ??????. ?? ?? ??????? ???????. ??? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????? ??????? ????????? – ???? 33 ?????. [???: ???? ?????, ????? ?????? 2009].
???? ??? ??????? ???????? ?????? ???????? ?? 2003-4. [???: ??-??? ????, ????? ?????? 2008]. ???? 2003 ????? ???????? ????? ?????? ??? ??????.
???? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????????.
?????? ????? ??? ????? ????: ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?? ???????. ????? ?????? (????)
4. ?????? ?????? ?????-??????, ?????? ?? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?? ??????.
"?????? ???? ??? ???????, ??? ??? ???????" [?????? ?????]
?????: ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????.
????? ?????? (????)
5. ??????? ?????? ?????????? ????? 2005-9
6. ???? ???? ?????: ??? ???? ???????? ???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???????? [???? – ??? ??????] ????? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ??????.
????? ??? ????? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ?????? ?????: ????? ????? ??? ???????, ????? ??????, ???? ???????? ????.
??? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????, ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ???? ???????? ???? - 2.66% ?-2011-12, ??? ????? ????.
?????? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ?????? ????? ?? ??????, ?????? ?????? ?? ???.
??? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ?? ?????? – ??? ??-???.
7. ??????? ???????? ?? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ?? ?????? ???, ???? ???? ????? ??? ???? ?????? ???? ???? ????.
???? Dt ???? ??? t ??? ???? ???? ???t-1 ?????? ?????? ????? ??? - t DEFt, ????? ?? ?? ??????? ????????: Dt = Dt-1 + DEFt
?????? ???? ????? ?- ?Dt : Dt - Dt-1 = ?Dt
?????? ???? ??? ????? ??? ??????? (????+?????? ?????) Tt ???????
?????? (?????? ????, ?????? ????? ????? ?????) Gt : DEFt= Gt – Tt
?? ??, ???? ?????? ??????? ???? ???? ?? ?????? ?????? ????, ?? ?? ?????
???? ??? ????? ????.
??? ??? ??-??? ???? ?????: ?????? ????, ??? ????? ?? ???? ???? ???? ????? ??? ????.
8. ?????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ????????, ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ???? ???? ??????? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ??????+??? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ???????? ????.
???? ???????? ????: ????? ?????? ???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ???-???? ????? (60% ??? ????????) ???? ??????.
?????: ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? 80%, ??????? ???? ??? ?????? ???-???? 3.4% ????, ???? ???????? ???? ????? ?????? 3/4 ???????:
3.4% • 60/80 = 2.55%
??? ????????, ?????? ??? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ????. ???? ???, ?????? ????? ?????? ?? 2.66% ?????? ???????.
9. ???? ??????? ?????? ?????: ??? ??? ???? ????? ??? ??????, ??? ??? ???? ??????. ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??????, ???? ????? ?????? ??????.
??????? ????? ???????? ???? ??? ???? ????? ????? ??????, ?? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ??????. ??? ?? ??? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ??????, ????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ????? ??????. ?????? ?????? ???? ????.
?????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ????????, ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? (????)
10. ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ??+????? ??? ?????? ????:
?. ?????? ???? ??? ?????? + ?? ??????. ????:
????? ?????? ????? = ????? ?????? ????? (???? ????? ?????? ?????) + ????? ??????.
??????: Gt=(deft +st)Yt =atYt
a ??? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ???? ??????.
?. ????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ???????.
??????: G^ = a^ + Y^ = ?a/a + g
????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????? = ????? ?????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ???? ????? + ??????.
11. ?????: ?? ??? ?????? ??????? ??? ?????, ?? ?a/a=0, ??? G^ = g , ?????? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ????.
????? ?????? ?????? 2011-12 ??? ?? ????? ??? ?????. ?a/a ??? ?????, ???? ??? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ?? G. ??? ????? ???? 2.
?????? ?-2012 ????? ????, ???? ????? ???? ???? ?????? ????? ???? ??a/a . ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????.
?????? ?????? ??? ???? ??+????? (????)
12. ????? ????? ?????? ??????? ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ????? ??????
13. ?????? ?????????? ????? ??????? ???????? ????? ????????:
?????:
??? ??????? 2010 3% ????, 2012 2% ????, 2013 1.5% ????, ? 2014 1%.
????? ??? – 1.5 ????? ???? ?? 2016.
??????: ????? ?????? ?? 2.66% ? 2011 ? 2012, ??? ??? ?????? ? 2013.
????? ??????? ??? ????? ?????
14. ?????? ?????????? ????? ??????? ???????? ????? ???????:
?????: ???? ????????? ??? ? 3.4% ????
????? ????? ?': ????? ????? ?????
????? ????? ?' ????? ????? ??????
???????? – 2% ????.
??? ??? ???? ???? ?? ????
?? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????
15. ?? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????????
16. ????? ??? ??? ?????? ????? ????? ?????
17. ???? ????? ??? ?????? ???? ???????
18. ????? ??? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ???????
19. ??? ??-??? ????? ??????? : ????? ?????? ???? ?? 3% ????
????? – ????? ??? ??? ????? ????? ? 2008
?????? – ???? ?????? ?? 3%
??? ??? ???? 60%
20. ???????:
?????
??????
???? ??????
????? "?????" ????? ????? ???? ??? ????
????? ???? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ??????? (0.1% ????) – ?????? ????????
????? ????? ?? ???????? ???? ?? ??? ??????
????? ??? ?????? ?????:
???? "????" ???? ????? ????? ??????
22. ????? ???????? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ??????????
?? ??? ????????? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ?????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ???.
?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ??????? – ????? ????? ?????
??? ??-??? – ??? ???? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ??????? ??? ????? ???? ??? ???? ?? 60% ???? ?? ????? ??? ??? ????? ?????? ?????.