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Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize Yields in East Africa

University of Dar Es Salaam. B43H-03. Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize Yields in East Africa. Nathan Moore, B Pijanowski, B Lofgren, G Alagarswamy, J Andresen, J Olson. Fundamental Research Question:. What is the nature and magnitude of climate-land interactions?

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Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize Yields in East Africa

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  1. University of Dar Es Salaam B43H-03 Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize Yields in East Africa Nathan Moore, B Pijanowski, B Lofgren, G Alagarswamy, J Andresen, J Olson

  2. Fundamental Research Question: What is the nature and magnitude of climate-land interactions? GCM versus RCM IPCC, radiative forcings Coupling human and natural systems

  3. Focused Questions/Motivation Question 1: What are likely Climate Change and Land Cover Change Impacts on Future East African Agriculture? Question 2: Is Land Cover/Land Use Change as important as Greenhouse Gas Concentrations at the Regional Scale?

  4. Herding, Agriculture, Urban, Irrigation, etc Human Systems Land Use & Land Cover Effects on Agriculture Surface Characteristics Climate Conceptual Framework of the Modeling System Many pathways Spatial scales / temporal scales / uncertainty

  5. Upper Embu coffee & maize farms --- slopes of Mt. Kenya

  6. Major Data Sources and Models • Land Use: Historical LUC studies, Africover. Model: Land Transformation Model (LTM) • Land Cover: GLC 2000, MODIS fc & LAI (seasonal) • Climate: CCSM 3.0 boundary conditions, RAMS 4.4, Worldclim station data, ECHAM5, HadCM3 • NPP Models: CERES/Maize, LPJ

  7. What changes do we expect in agricultural land cover? Land cover in 2000 Land cover in 2050 (projected) Lowered roughness, higher moisture

  8. 4 experiments for exploring climate and landscape effects Land CoverGlobal ClimateComparison: 1: Current Current Baseline 2: Current 2050 decade Future climate effects only 3: 2050 decade Current Future land cover effects only 4: 2050 decade 2050 decade Synergistic effects

  9. Results from the 4 experiments • Focus on Differences: • Future Climate Effects (2-1) • B. Land Cover/Land Use Effects (3-1) • C. Synergistic Effects (4-1)

  10. Differences in Precipitation Climate Change Land Cover/Land Use Synergistic Effects Effects Change (LCLUC) Effects

  11. Differences in Temperature Climate Change LCLUC Synergistic Effects Effects Effects

  12. Differences in Latent Heat Flux Climate Change LCLUC Synergistic Effects Effects Effects (7.8 W/m2) (-2.8 W/m2) (8.6 W/m2)

  13. Wind pattern changes due to LCLUC

  14. Herding, Agriculture, Urban, Irrigation, etc Human Systems Effects on Agriculture Land Use & Land Cover Surface Characteristics Climate Projected D in Maize Yield Climate and Landscape Forcings Q1: Impacts on African Agriculture

  15. Relative Impact of Greenhouse Gases vs. Land Use Change

  16. Summary Tharaka, Kenya Land Use and Climate may have strong impacts on East African Agriculture, and thus on humans (feedbacks) Land Cover/Land Use may have impacts on the same scale as elevated Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, but highly localized effects

  17. Herding, Agriculture, Urban, Irrigation, etc Human Systems Land Use & Land Cover Effects on Crops, Disease,Ecosystems, etc Surface Characteristics Climate Coupling Human Systems to Land Use/Land Cover

  18. Conclusion • Potential problems related toagricultural futures in Africa • Relative roles of greenhouses gases versus Land Cover/Land Use Change on climate • Interdisciplinary issues of societal import; continuing savannas research

  19. Herding, Agriculture, Urban, Irrigation, etc Human Systems Land Use & Land Cover Effects on Crops, Disease,Ecosystems, etc Surface Characteristics Climate Surface Characteristics influencing Climate Important to include regional and local characteristics

  20. Projected D in Maize Yield Climate Forcings Only

  21. An Illustration of Climate and Land Cover Drivers Landscape Inputs The Climate Model Domain Global Climate inputs at the boundaries

  22. Relative Impact of Greenhouse Gases vs. Land Use Change: Tmax

  23. Projected D in Maize Yield: Landscape Forcings Only

  24. Differences in Sensible Heat Flux

  25. Conceptual framework: A walk around “The Loop” Global Climate: From CCSM model CLIMATE DYNAMICS RAMS simulations Land Transformation Model (LTM) Land cover input to RAMS CERES-MAIZE(Crop model) Tmin, Tmax, solar, precip Land cover (albedo, FC, LAI)

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