Emerging Technologies – Potential New Terror Threats in the 21 st Century

1. Emerging Technologies – Potential New Terror Threats in the 21st Century Dr. Yair Sharan Interdisciplinary Centre for Technology Forecasting Tel-Aviv University Sharany@post.tau.ac.il Third Annual Science and Technology ConferenceJune 2007, RUSI, Whitehall ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

2. ICTAF’s - Mission To be Israel’s leading institute in: • Analyses of multidisciplinary processes • Technology Assessment and Foresight Improve decision and policy-making processes Harness the knowledge of University personnel for the benefit of the economy and society. Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

3. Introduction • Beside their huge contribution to quality of life and scientific progress ,new technologies have intrinsic dangers. • Terrorists might take advantage of these technologies ,identify new opportunities and Use them in the future for hostile actions. • Key words: technological threats, technology abuse, disruptive technologies, emerging technologies, wild cards, structural chemistry, synthetic biology, data and knowledge control, threat potential, threat management, threat perception, grey and green goo, NBIC, converging technologies. ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

4. Why should we be more worried today? • New terrorist profile: greater number of potential terrorists and supporters with-high levels of technical and scientific knowledge (e.g., engineering students and researchers from Islamic and third world countries in Western Academy and Defense connected Industries). • Gap narrowing between Civilian and Military products/applications. • More potentially dangerous technical information is becoming available on the net. ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

5. Why should we be more worried today?(Cont) • Global networks of terror interconnected by Internet. • Great difficulties in control and prevention of sensitive knowledge dissemination in free societies. • Trends of miniaturization and cost reduction of many military technologies facilitates terrorism (e.g., easier procurement, theft, concealment). • Public perception of threat posed by new technologies (grey goo, green goo). ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

6. Examples of New Scientific Areas of Research and Emerging Technologies, Prone to Misuse • Nanotechnology. • Biotechnology. • Robotics: mini/micro, robotic toys. • Communications and Information technology. • Brain research, cognition, and mind control – “Thought Power”. ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

7. Nanotechnology • The science and technology of building devices such as electronic circuits from single atoms and molecules. • Nanotechnology broadly refers to techniques that produce or measure features less than 100 nanometers in size; this embraces advanced microfabrication and metrology. • Several technologies converge with nanotechnology, the most important being miniaturization of semiconductor structures driven by progress in microelectronics. More directly relevant are efforts to extend chemical synthesis to the construction of larger and more complex molecular objects. Protein engineering and supramolecular chemistry are active fields that exploit weak intermolecular forces to organize small parts into larger structures. ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

8. Nanotechnology • Nano = 1 billionth of meter/10 atoms wide (IBM spelled in atoms). • Nanotubes/spheres - 100X tensile strength of steel, 1/6 weight, no friction, store energy. • Faster chips, 1 million x data storage (40% by ’11). • Superconducters 100 X efficiency of copper. • Space elevator – 1 meter film of nanotubes to geosynchronous orbit in 15 yrs. @ $10B. • 6000 patents, 1200 ventures. From William E. Halal, 2006 Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

9. “The World’s Smallest Abacus” width = 10 nanometers made of C60 molecules “nano-engineering, where solid-state physics and chemistry merge. We may be able to assemble complex structures from the bottom up, as nature does, molecule by molecule, and thus break ground for entirely new fabrication technologies with a broad range of applications” (source:IBM laboratory in Zurich) ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

10. Nanotechnology Functional Materials for operation in extreme conditions systems with self multiplication And repairing capability Molecular Manipulation for building devices Nanobots traveling in blood system Molecular Manipulation for building of new materials 2010 2015 2020 2025 Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

11. Nanotechnology – Potential Terror Threats • High power new explosives and propellants: • “MOAB (Mother Of All Bombs): superthermites that combine nanometals with metal oxides that can greatly improve output. • Methal less weapons. • Small missiles. • New highly toxic compounds: • - Human toxicity (respiratory and food exposures). • - Environmental long term pollution. Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

12. Nanotechnology Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

13. Biotechnology • Use of microorganisms, such as bacteria or yeasts or biological substances such as enzymes to perform specific industrial or manufacturing processes. • Applications include the production of certain drugs, synthetic hormones, and the use of genetically altered bacteria, and recombinant deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) technology to generate unique organisms with new traits or organisms that have the potential to produce specific products. Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

14. Biotechnology – Potential Terror Threats • Creation/ Purchase of dangerous biologic warfare agents (microbes, viruses, and toxins) or building blocks, using commercial/ scientific products available • Creation of new biological and nano-toxins, using synthetic biology, and structural chemistry methods Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

15. Robotics Widespread use of unmannedvehicles Robots with self decision capability under conditions of uncertainty Smart robots for variety of services Robots remotely operated in risky areas 2015 2005 2010 Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

16. Robotics: mini/micro – Potential Terror Threats • The current achievements in Robotics (R&D and production): smarter, smaller and cheaper robots increase the danger that such products will become available (buying or theft) to terrorists Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

17. Robotics: Radio-Controlled Mini Toys - Potential Terror Threats • Possible use of robotic toys as platforms to HED (high explosive device) or other terror devices (chemical, radiological, biological) for attacking defended targets, without exposing terrorists to danger. (Jurgen Altmann, Routledge, 2006) Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

18. Information and Communication Bio-Computers Automatic Systems for security and surveillance Automatic translation in telephone system Automatic Anti-Viral vaccination Automatic conversion of Natural (Hebrew)Speech into text Highly reliable network systems Widespread use of electronic forms 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

19. Communications and Information – Examples of Potential Terror Threats • Attacks on air navigation facilities in bad visibility conditions. • Targeted attacks by HED (High Explosive Device) and Electronic warfare against critical civilian communication infrastructures (for example, flight control facilities at civilian airports at peak traffic hours). Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

20. “Thought Power” – “Soft” Applications • Recruitment of large numbers of suicidal candidates - “Human Bombs” by Mind Control Technologies: • Indoctrination using new technologies of learning and mind control (e.g., Virtual Reality, Hypnosis). • Combination of the above with new psychological drugs (developed for medical treatment of mental illness). Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

21. Thought Power– Applications Hard Technologies) • Implanted electrodes detect brain signals. • Wireless control of PC, machines, Communications. • Chips implanted in 1 M dogs and cats, 1000 people; Prof. Warwick experiments (chip implant technologies) • Remote control of weapons? Terrorists? • Electronic eyes, hearing, … - bionic person • Artificial limbs controlled by thought Source: William E. Halal, 2006 ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

22. Potential Threatening new Technologies Applications (Sources: Altman et al, Sharan et al) ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

23. Potential Threatening new Technologies Applications ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

24. Potential Threatening new Technologies Applications ICTAF- Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

25. Converging Technologies (NBIC) Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

26. Bio-nano-info Interfaces between neural information and artificial organs (Brain machine Interface) Micromachines traveling inside organisms Architecture for bio-computers Bio-Chips for use in Electronic circuits Remote surgery based on virtual reality Anti-Viral drugs Identification of multiple genes related to psychiatric disorders Smart cards with personal medical data (in Israel) Widespread use of Bioinformatics 2005 2010 2015 Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

27. Beginnings • Nanotechnology, robotics, cognition, information technology are leading us to a new world. • New technologies can better life in the future, but • Terrorists can and might use the technology to the detriment of society • It is our task to safeguard the new technologies and control proliferation. Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)

28. Thanks to my collegues: Dr. Jacob Negreanu, Dr. Aharon Hauptman and Dr. Richard Small. And thank you for your attention Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF)