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The Need For a Weather Decision Tool Jeremy Smith Safety Science Department

College of Aviation. The Need For a Weather Decision Tool Jeremy Smith Safety Science Department. entry data consists of. Codes, Abbreviations and Jargon.

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The Need For a Weather Decision Tool Jeremy Smith Safety Science Department

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  1. College of Aviation The Need For a Weather Decision Tool Jeremy Smith Safety Science Department entry data consists of Codes, Abbreviations and Jargon 000 FAUS45 KKCI 101145 FA5W SLCC FA 101145 SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 110000... ID MT WY NV UT CO AZ NM . SEE AIRMET SIERRA FOR IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCN. TS IMPLY SEV OR GTR TURB SEV ICE LLWS AND IFR CONDS. NON MSL HGTS DENOTED BY AGL OR CIG. . SYNOPSIS...ALF..AMPLIFYG TROF SERN ID-NWRN AZ. BLDG RDG SWRN WA- . . . Introduction Between 1983 and 2004, 60% of weather related GA accidents were fatal, as compared with only 20% of all GA accidents being fatal. “Historically about two thirds of all general aviation accidents that occur in instrument meteorological conditions are fatal.” Objective To investigate where deficiencies lie in Part 91 and Part 135 pilot pre-flight planning regarding weather data collection, synthesis and analysis. Findings Of the 4,159 weather related accidents, 59% received a weather brief while 41% did not. Of those who received a brief, 41.3% went to FSS and about 5.5% went to either a commercial weather service, a company or an unknown source. Literature Review Of 19,582 accidents investigated between 1994 and 2003, NTSB listed 21.3% as being weather related. Of the 4,159 weather related accidents, 48% listed wind as the contributing weather condition. FARs address visibility and ceiling for takeoff and landing. Little guidance exists for wind or the enroute phase of flight planning. Clearly, this approach is not working for Part 91 or Part 135 operations. So What Is the Problem? Is it data collection– 59% got a brief and still crashed.Then it must be in data synthesis or data analysis. High-Risk operations have formal risk assessment tools The final decision is the pilot’s; so how do they asses the risk? The Weather Decision Process They don’t have a formal tool to assist them! Rules do not address accident causal factors No tool exists to gather and analyze applicable data References “Risk factors Associated with Weather Related General Aviation Accidents” NTSB/SS-05/01. “Visual Flight Rules Flight into Adverse Weather: An Empirical Investigation of Factors Affecting Pilot Decision Making” FAA-00-8. “Operational Risk Management” USCG COMDTINST 3500.3. • Future Goals • 41% of pilots had no weather brief. Why? • Basic weather data not in English. Can it be? • Develop risk assessment tool for general aviation and commercial air taxi/ charter weather related “go/ no-go” flight decisions.

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