FUTUROLOGY:

1. FUTUROLOGY: A BROAD SPECTRUM LOOK FROM A DISTANCE

2. HUMAN PERSPECTIVES D I S T A N T Very Few Decisions are concerned with future times and distant locations. S P A C E Third generation of children & beyond in distant nations Most Decisions are concerned with present day local issues. My children’s life & times (perhaps grand children) L O C A L My life & times FUTURE PRESENT T I M E

3. THE PROPHETS The First Futurologists used religious paradigms THESIS Scenarios of a desirable future and the blessing of the gods Utopias A B SYNTHESIS C The reality of life somewhere between the extremes Somewhere In Between D E F ANTITHESIS Scenarios of an undesirable future and the curse of the gods Dystopias The Old World gives way to a New World thru Apocalyptic Events

4. THE SCIENCE OF FUTUROLOGY • The Goal • Describe the future • Explain the future • Predict the future • Control the future • Paradigms (Available Resources) • Multidiscipline Science Observations • Statistical Interpolation Databases • Computer Modeling • Educated Decision Making The Product

5. THE END PRODUCT THE END PRODUCT A MULTI SCENARIO VISION OF THE FUTURE • There is a Best Possible World— Utopia • There is a Worst Possible World— Dystopia • There is Somewhere in Between— Synthesis Somewhere in between is the grey zone (the mixing of black and white, the worst & the best) • Achievement of priority goals • Avoidance of worst case scenarios • A future of our own choosing

6. THE PERSON Noon The Stages of Life Morning Twilight • Childhood • Young Adult • Middle Adult • Mature Adult With each stage is a person Is presented with a task (a challenge).

7. THE PERSON • Maslow’s Hierarchy of Need • Physiology • Safety • Belonging • Esteem (Achievement) • Self Actualization • Aspects of Life • Health • Wealth • Relationships • Vocation • Re-Creation • Culture • Religion

8. THE PERSON Resources for the Challenges of Life • The Person as Individual • Individual Mind • Individual Body • Individual Spirit • The Person’s Support Community • Community Mind • Community Body • Community Spirit • The Human Collective • Collective Mind • Collective Body • Collective Spirit

9. THE KARDASHEV SCALE Where are we going? Type 0 Geographically Located Civilizations Type I Global Civilization Planetary Energy Harnessed (c10^16W) Type II Interplanetary Civilization Solar Energy Harnessed (c10^26W) Type III Interstellar Civilization Galactic Energy Harnessed (c10^36W) Type IV and beyond Intergalactic Civilization Type V Type VI Type VII Harnessing the Energy of Super-galactic Structures (c10^46W<)

10. THE CYCLE OF PROGRESS The Malthusian Tension: Moving through Crisis to Paradigm CRISIS CRISIS CRISIS See Hubbert’s Peak…

11. THE SEQUENCE OF TECHNOLOGY The introduction and progress of new technology follows a predictable sequence • Need • Invention/Discovery • Technical Novelty • Isolated Innovative use • Social Integration and Reorientation • Social Resistance • Social Dependency

12. RELATIONSHIPS LOCAL REGIONAL NATIONAL INTERNAT’L GLOBAL BEYOND Personal Family Community Regional National International Global Beyond

13. THE COMMUNITY GLOBALIZED ECUMETROPITAN MOSAIC A Person’s Place in the Global Village Spirit of Service Family*** • MARKET SHORTCOMINGS • MANAGEMENT • Military-Industrial Complex • Legal-Media-Political Complex • Aerospace-Technology Complex • Agribusiness-Subsidy Complex • Monopolistic Drive Complex Community Religious & Cultural Inst Universities Local National Socially Responsible Business Privately Owned Enterprise Publicly Owned Corporations Globally Regulated Internat’l Bus Gov’t representing the will of the people  of, by and for the people Regional Global Human Rights Equal Opportunity Economic Equitability Community Empowerment

14. THE NETWORK EXPRESS LOCAL REG’L NAT’L INTERNAT’L GLOBAL BEYOND (Point to Point) Grids • AIR • Aeroplane • Rotorwing • Aeroship COMMUNICATION POWER DELIVERY TRANSPORTATION • LAND • Rail—People Movers • Road • Overland • Tunneled • SEA • Surface ship • Surface Action Craft Subsurface • SPACE • Space Plane • Suborbital • Orbital • Lunar • Interplanetary

15. MEGASCALE TRANSPORTING A Transatlantic Tunnel

16. THE CHALLENGE Malthusian Projection using Hubbert’s Peak VOCATION Aggregate Demand Over Time Q U A N T I T Y The Challenge of Limited Resources Technology increases aggregate supply to meet growing demand Can technology Continue an increase in supply, as rapidly as humans increase demand? Aggregate Supply Over Time T I M E

17. HEALTH1 H E A L T H C A R E S E R V I C E S • Treatment • Outpatient • Inpatient • Prevention • Life-style • Diet • Exercise • Stress Inflamatories • Infectious Diseases • Accidental Injury • Healthcare Services • Effectiveness • Availability • Affordability • Detection • Diagnostics • Blood screening • Bio-field scanning • Gene mapping • Biomedical Information • Computer modeling • Health Profiling G R E A T E S T E F F E C T O N H E A L T H The average life expectancy for people in the US is 77, in Japan its 83, the world average is 63. In the US, 80% of all healthcare dollars are spent on end of life care … The next greatest percentage is noninfectious, lifestyle illness care…

18. HUMAN GENERATIONS Number of children/person will decrease 2100 2200+ 2070 2170 Parent age at time of first child will increase 2050 2145 2020 2110 2075 1990 Life expectancy will Increase 1970 2050 1900 2000 2100 2200

19. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE • Mega Farm districts • Soil Conservation • Local Temp/Humidity enhancement • Farming Cooperatives • Crop product variety expansion • Genetic modification • Drought/pest resistant • Climate/soil adapting • Weather Modification • Long range weather prediction • Improved Mechanization • Crop health monitors • Soil quality sensors • Electronic pest control • Robotics • Enhanced Irrigation • Water table mapping • Desalination • Aquatic Agriculture • Ocean farming/management • Hydroponics farming • Soil Science • Top soil manufacturing • Micromanaged fertilization • Micromanaged water delivery

20. HEALTH2 • Surgery • Remote Particle beam & Laser • Precision Directed radiation • Automated Micro managed drug deliver • Nutrition Science • Diet Fabricat’n • Organic • Synthetic TRENDS IN BIOMEDICAL Genetic Engineering, at Genotype phenotype level… Genetic Normalcy Tissue cloning For grafting, replacement, and transplant, Bioengineering for prosthetics, organ, gland enhancement, physio-automat’n & metabolic replication Improved revival & resuscitation technologies Intervention Intervention

21. CITIES1 (wealth & safety) COMMUNITY/URBAN ARCHITECTURE Wireless Tiered living Sky City Sky Scrapers Multi-storied Ground Level Underground Wired Subunderground Below Subunderground

22. CITIES2 Orbital Projection Laser Projection Aeroship Projection COMMUNITY/URBAN ARCHITECTURE Tiered living Laser Projection Sky Cities Wireless Sky Scrapers Multi-storied Ground Level Underground Under Ground Cable Optics Subunderground Below Subunderground

23. SKY CITIES

24. Oceanopolis • Island Cities • Floating Cities • Surface • Subsurface CITIES3

25. CITIES4 • Wilderness • Nature Preserve • Resources • Wildlife • Carbon Sink • Agricultural • Park-Recreation • Undesignated Mixed Urban Greater Urban Metropolis Megalopolis Ecumenopolis Population Grid

26. ARTIFICIAL ISLANDS

27. UNDERSEA HABITATS AND CITIES

28. SELF ACTUALIZATION & VALUES CLARIFICATION (Re-creation) SOCIO—POLITICAL AGENDAS • The Conservative Approach • Prioritizes stability • Resists changes which may undermines stability • The Progressive Approach • Prioritizes an ideal • Advocates for changes that may lead to ideal • Attitudes • Militants—”Conservative Reactionaries” • Radicals—”Leftist Liberals” • Middle of the Roads—”Passionless Jelly Bellies”

29. REACHING A TYPE 1 CIVILIZATION Harnessing the Energy of a Planet * Biomass Fuels Type 0 Agricultural Revolution Functioning Civilization * Fossil Fuels Type 0.5 Industrial Revolution (coal) Hyper Industrial (Petroleum, Natural Gas) * Non Sustainable Alternative Fuels Type 0.7 Post Industrial, Service Economy Nuclear Fission Fuels Hydro Electric Conversion Geo-Thermal Conversion * Globally Sustainable Energy Type 1.0 Eco-Industrial, Recyclable Economy Nuclear Fusion Solar Energy Conversion Wind Energy Conversion Open Fire, ‘Beast of Burden’ Chemical Reaction Based Non-Chemical Reaction Based, Non-renewable Energy Waste Free, Renewable Energy

30. MEGASCALE ENERGY

31. CLIMATE ENGINEERING

32. PERMANENT MOON STATION PROJECT CONSTELLATION: A transfer point for interplanetary transports

33. THE WORLD1 + Saharan Outback + Central Asian Outback + + Siberian Outback + + + + + North Am West Population 12-15 Billion & holding + + W Pacific Habitats Pacific Habitats Australian Outback Mega Scaled Terraforming Projects (7) GEN Grid—GTN Rail World Heritage Preservation Areas (7) Central Desert Energy Zones (4) Space Ports (11)

34. THE WORLD2 Halo-Synchronous Orbit Synchronous Orbit Sub-Synchronous Orbit Suborbital Lunar Express Real Time Integrated Suborbital LTA Fleets Real Time Integrated Satellite Constellations Real time synchronized Earth Systems Watch…

35. REACHING FOR ATYPE 2 CIVILIZATION Harnessing the Energy of a Star ROBONAUTS

36. SPACE ELEVATOR Present cost to launch = $10,000 / lb Desired cost to launch < $ 1,000 / lb Air Travel cost < $ 200 / lb

37. THE SOLAR SYSTEM Why go into space? Concentration of resources, (e.g. metal content to waste ratio) is >10 to 100 times that of earth. Technology can make resource extraction from space cost effective. Venus Jupiter (61) Solar Panel Array for Climate Control Energy Conversion Saturn (48) Earth Neptune (28) Mars Asteroid Belt Uranus (14) • Kuiper Belt • Pluto • Quaoar • Sedna • Xena • Others 40 AU’s 3.72E+09 mi @25k mph (0.04%c) 160,000 hrs @65m mph (10%c) 61hrs Centaur Belt Alpha Centauri 280,645 AU’s

38. MEGASCALE CLIMATE ENGINEERING Fleet of >100,000 Solar Panels for Climate Control and Energy Conversion

39. REACHING FOR ATYPE 3 CIVILIZATION Harnessing the Energy of a Galaxy Project Orion: Interstellar Probes Speed of present orbital (s)= 0.004% c Speed for interstellar probe= 10.0% c

40. THE CHALLENGE • Currently we have the following to invest • 6,000 Bn Tons of Atmosphere • 100 Bn km^3 of water • 150 Mn km^2 of land • 75,000 Quads of energy (non-renewable) • 6.5 Bn people • These need to propel us into a future where • First 100 thousand years was 50 Bn human lives • Next 100 years will have another 50 Bn human lives • Average Global calories/day was = 1000 • Desired calories/day will be = c 2000 • Quads of energy used today = c412 • Quads consumed by 2100 = 1600+ • Total population= c. 12 Bn people Current rate of consumption exceeds Earth System capacity for regeneration Future rate of consumption is less than or equal to earth System regeneration capacity Science can tell us the what will happen for each scenario we create. It is we who must chose what scenario we wish to pursue…