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Economic Integration between South Asia and East Asia: A Perception Survey of Opinion Leaders

Economic Integration between South Asia and East Asia: A Perception Survey of Opinion Leaders. Pradumna B. Rana Associate Professor RSIS-NTU Chia Wai Mun Assistant Professor NTU Presentation at RIS, New Delhi 29 January 2014. Outline. Introduction Objectives

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Economic Integration between South Asia and East Asia: A Perception Survey of Opinion Leaders

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  1. Economic Integration between South Asia and East Asia:A Perception Survey of Opinion Leaders Pradumna B. Rana Associate Professor RSIS-NTU Chia Wai Mun Assistant Professor NTU Presentation at RIS, New Delhi 29 January 2014

  2. Outline • Introduction • Objectives • Trends in SA/EA Economic Linkages • Initiatives to Promote SA/EA Linkages • Economic Integration in South Asia • Policy Implications

  3. I. Introduction • Perception Survey was supported by the Academic Research Fund of Nanyang Technological University provided by the Ministry of Education, Singapore • Survey will be a chapter of a book that we are co-authoring on “Jump-starting South Asia: Round Two of Reforms and Look East Policies”

  4. II. Objectives of the Study • Assess the views of stakeholders in South Asia and East Asia on integration between the two regions • Test the relative strengths of the findings of our various papers

  5. Our Papers • Francois, J, PB Rana and G. Wignaraja (eds) (2009). Pan-Asian Integration: Linking East and South Asia. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan. • Rana, PB. 2012. Renaissance of Asia. World Scientific Publishers, Singapore. • Rana, PB and WM Chia (2013). South Asia Needs Phase 2 of Look East Policies. Economic and Political Weekly 48(35). • Rana, PB and WM Chia (2014). Perception Survey of Asian Opinion Leaders on Economic Linkages between South Asia and East Asia. Draft • Rana, PB and WM Chia (2014). The Revival of the Silk Roads (Land Connectivity) in Asia. Draft • Rana, PB and BKarmacharya (2013). A Connectivity-Driven Development Strategy for Nepal: From a Landlocked to a Land-linked State. Forthcoming ADBI

  6. Profile of Respondents

  7. III. SA/ EA Linkages: Need for LEPII in South Asia

  8. Costs of Strengthening Economic Linkages

  9. Benefits of Strengthening Economic Linkages

  10. Modalities of Regional Cooperation

  11. Obstacles and Barriers to Economic Linkages

  12. Required Policy Actions in South Asia

  13. IV. Initiatives to Promote SA/EA Economic Integration

  14. Trade

  15. Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in EA and the Possible Role for SA

  16. Connectivity Issues: Northern and South-western Silk Road Source: Rana and Chia (2014)

  17. Factors That Have Revived the Case for Land and Air Connectivity between SA and EA

  18. Connectivity Issues

  19. Connectivity Issues

  20. Proposed Corridors in South Asia Source: Rana and Karmacharya (2013)

  21. V. Economic Integration in South Asia

  22. Income Effects of Alternative FTA Scenarios Note: ROW is rest of the world. Changes are computed relative to 2017 baseline at constant 2001 prices. Source: Francois, Rana, and Wignaraja (2009)

  23. VI. Policy Implications • Market-led approaches (including connectivity) should drive South Asia/ East Asia integration. • ASEAN-India connectivity and BCIM Economic Corridor are strongly supported. • SASEC and BIMSTEC have strong potential in promoting SA/EA integration. • Efforts must also be made to promote South Asia/ Southern China/ ASEAN Connectivity or the SSR: Nepal has a role to play. • The proposed economic corridors in South Asia would help connect CAREC and GMS corridors, making Asia truly seamless (ADB should note). • Just as in the case of the EAS, ASEAN must invite India to join the ERDP and India could pledge funds to the CMIM. • At some stage, most South Asia countries must be invited in negotiating the RCEP.

  24. Thank you

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