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Research in a Changing World

Research in a Changing World. 30 th Annual Research Symposium College of Communication and Information University of Tennessee. Reggie Murphy Director, Research Services. “Please, pretty please will you participate in my survey?: Research in a Changing World.

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Research in a Changing World

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  1. Research in a Changing World 30th Annual Research Symposium College of Communication and Information University of Tennessee Reggie Murphy Director, Research Services

  2. “Please, pretty please will you participate in my survey?:Research in a Changing World

  3. When Chi-squares Attack!:Research in a Changing World

  4. “I don’t care if the sample is five, just give me something to sell with!”:Research in a Changing World

  5. Media Overload • US Internet users watched 10 Billion+ videos online in Dec 2007.1 • Facebook users doubled “time spent” on site from Dec ‘06 to Dec ‘07.2 • Since 4/03, iTunes has sold 4 Billion+ songs. Sold record 20 Million songs 12/25/07.3 • Now 2nd largest music distributer to WalMart • Now rent videos on iTunes

  6. Media Overload • US Mobile Internet users will nearly double in the next five years.4 • Worldwide mobile social networking to double by 2012. • Average US home has 104 channels. • Tune into at least 16 channels at least 10 minutes each per week.5 • Over 25 Million DVR Households in ’07.6 • Will nearly double by 2012

  7. Everyone now is a simultaneous consumer of media • Reaching media “foreground” & “background”7 • TV, Podcast • Project message in multilayered world? • 48hrs of media in 24hr day • Business model? PHOTO: CHIP SIMONS, BusinessWeek “Best of 2005 Ideas - Reaching the Simultaneous Media Multitasking Consumer”

  8. The Challenge for Ad-supported Media is Measuring Audiences • What is the size of your target audience? • What source(s) will you use to sell ads? • How do you reliably measure behavior with your product/service? • Perceptions, Engagement with your brand • How do you develop/test new concepts and products given these dramatic changes in behavior?

  9. Measuring Audiences is More Challenging Today…for Everyone • Radio (Broadcast, Satellite, Internet) • Television (Broadcast, Cable, Satellite) • Publishing (Newspapers, Magazines) • Internet services • Mobile content providers • Advertising, Media Planning, PR agencies • CPG, Pharma, Telecom, Travel, Auto, and on… • Especially, market research professionals… • The people who actually do the work!

  10. Measuring Audiences Using These Methods is Challenging Now…And Will Be in the Coming Years • Telephone Survey Methodology • Increasing Cell-Only Households • Increasing Non-response rates • Web Site Audience Measurement • Online Panels vs. Site-centric Method • Online panels/surveys – managing quality • Fatigue, Churn, Recruitment • “Heavy survey responders”

  11. Telephone Surveys • 13% of US Households are cell-only. • Could approach 25% by end of 2008.8 • Academia, Research Industry exploring issue.9 • Good news so far - Cell-only problem not biasing results (…yet). • Bad news – may be impacting estimates for certain subgroups where cell-only is more common (i.e., young, single, less affluent, minority).10

  12. Accommodating for the cell-only population • Conduct Cell-only Surveys (EXPENSIVE) • Federal law prohibits RDD devices • Takes up to 10 times more cell #’s than landline #’s to call to complete ONE interview. • Higher refusals, higher expectation of privacy • Cell phones not always available • People block your number • Calling while people are driving A survey with 2,500 sample would be $489,450

  13. Accommodating for the cell-only population – Some alternatives • Use dual frame samples • Calling both cell and landline samples • Use landline samples and online survey samples for respondents under age 30. • Employ online surveys to reach cell-only population, Provide incentives • Establish cell-only online panels to call periodically

  14. Web Site Audience Measurement • Two primary types of methods with pluses and minuses12 • Site-centric method • Software connects with Web servers and tracks how many people come to the site by counting IP addresses. • May overcount traffic; 31% of US Internet users delete cookies each month.13 • Panel-based measurement services • Recruit via RDD and online survey panel • Survey respondents download tracking software on computers • May undercount traffic; limited samples, monitor too few people surfing at work

  15. *Nov 2007 vs. Nov 20006 Both companies currently being audited by MRC – Media Ratings Council.

  16. Online Panels & Surveys • Fatigue, keeping panelists interested and engaged is challenging • Re-recruitment, a continuous process • Incentives becoming more important • Costly, “professional” panelists • Heavy responders, Heavy Internet users impact results

  17. Technological Advancements Create Innovative Approaches • Arbitron’s PPM – Portable People Meter • Can detect consumers’ exposure to TV, Radio, Podcast, Movie Trailers • MRC Accredited • Full rollout delayed until Sept 2008 • The problem: Undercounting 18-34 yr olds, Minorities • Closest to single source data collection so far • Store cameras to access buying behavior, GPS sensors, CRM systems

  18. Dan Hill14 and Emotionomics • Breakthroughs in brain science have paved way for deeper understanding of human nature. • Decision-making influenced by emotions • Marketing research must become more holistic. • And use other tools to supplement traditional ratings & verbatims, such as biometrics. • Facial coding and eye tracking • Product development • Advertising campaigns

  19. Market Research Must Broaden Scope • Innovation happens has disciplines intersect • Communications & Neuroscience • Psychology & Advertising • Marketing & Anthropology • Must utilize qualitative & quantitative methods • Ethnographic interviews • Observation • Focus groups techniques • Visualization, projective exercises

  20. Research in a Changing World • Consumers’ demographics and media use behavior will continue to change • How we recruit consumers to participate in our research projects will not get easier • Must meet the challenge of measuring audiences by developing innovative techniques • Web analytics has work to do • Measuring Online Video has a LOT of work to do • Experimenting with new methods must continue to answer complex research problems

  21. References • “10 Billion Video Views Online in December,” Center for Media Research, Research Brief, 2/22/08. http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2051 • “MySpace Received 76 Percent of U.S Social Networking Visits in 2007,” Hitwise Press Release 1/16/08. http://www.hitwise.com/press-center/hitwiseHS2004/social-networking-visits-in-2007.php • http://www.svdaily.com/applenews.html, http://www.apple.com/pr/ • “US Mobile Internet Users 2007-2012,” emarketer.com, September 2007. • “Average U.S. Home Now Receives A Record 104.2 TV Channels,” Nielsen Media, 3/19/07 http://www.nielsenmedia.com/nc/portal/site/Public/menuitem.55dc65b4a7d5adff3f65936147a062a0/?vgnextoid=48839bc66a961110VgnVCM100000ac0a260aRCRD • “DVR Households in the United States, 2006 – 2012,” eMarketer.com July 2007. • “Reaching The Simultaneous Media Multitasking Consumers,” BusinessWeek, 12/19/05 http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_51/b3964401.htm • “How Serious Is Polling’s Cell-Only Problem,” Pew Research Center Publications, 6/20/07 http://pewresearch.org/pubs/515/polling-cell-only-problem • AAPOR Annual Conference May 17-20, “The Impact Of "Cell-Onlys" On Public Opinion Polling “ Pew Research Center, 1/31/08 http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=391 , Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 71, No. 5. • “Pollsters beginning to count cell users,” 6/4/07, http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/06/04/BUGI6Q5L141.DTL&type=tech • “Reaching the Cell-Phone Generation,” Public Opinion Quarterly 2007 71(5):814-839. • “A Panel Discussion: Q&A with Manish Bhatia,” Editor & Publisher, January 2008, p 26-29. • “The Impact of Cookie Deletion on Accuracy of Site-Server and Ad-server Metrics: An Empirical Study, comCore White Paper, June 2007, http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=1465 • “Face Value,” Dan Hill, Marketing Research, Fall 2007 19(3), p. 9-14. Note: The URL addresses posted in this section were documented by this presentation's author during the week of 2/24/08 for the sole purpose presenting on 2/29/08. URL address change as original providers move or delete content from their servers. The author does not guarantee the availability of any URLs listed beyond the date of the presentation. If a URL address is not available, the author recommends conducting an online search for the topic or title.

  22. Reggie MurphyDirector, Research ServicesGannett Co., Inc.rmurphy@gannett.com

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