Chapter

1. Chapter 10 Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

2. Section 10.1 The Language of Hypothesis Testing

3. Objectives • Determine the null and alternative hypotheses • Explain Type I and Type II errors • State conclusions to hypothesis tests

4. Objective 1 • Determine the Null and Alternative Hypotheses

5. A hypothesis is a statement regarding a characteristic of one or more populations. In this chapter, we look at hypotheses regarding a single population parameter.

6. Examples of Claims Regarding a Characteristic of a Single Population • In 2008, 62% of American adults regularly volunteered their time for charity work. A researcher believes that this percentage is different today. Source: ReadersDigest.com poll created on 2008/05/02

7. Examples of Claims Regarding a Characteristic of a Single Population • In 2008, 62% of American adults regularly volunteered their time for charity work. A researcher believes that this percentage is different today. • According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25 minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then.

8. Examples of Claims Regarding a Characteristic of a Single Population • In 2008, 62% of American adults regularly volunteered their time for charity work. A researcher believes that this percentage is different today. • According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25 minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then. • Using an old manufacturing process, the standard deviation of the amount of wine put in a bottle was 0.23 ounces. With new equipment, the quality control manager believes the standard deviation has decreased.

9. CAUTION! We test these types of statements using sample data because it is usually impossible or impractical to gain access to the entire population. If population data are available, there is no need for inferential statistics.

10. Hypothesistesting is a procedure, based on sample evidence and probability, used to test statements regarding a characteristic of one or more populations.

11. Steps in Hypothesis Testing • A statement is made regarding the nature of the population. • Evidence (sample data) is collected in order to test the statement. • The data is analyzed to assess the plausibility of the statement.

12. The null hypothesis, denoted H0, is a statement to be tested. The null hypothesis is a statement of no change, no effect or no difference. The null hypothesis is assumed true until evidence indicates otherwise. In this chapter, it will be a statement regarding the value of a population parameter.

13. The alternative hypothesis, denoted H1, is a statement that we are trying to find evidence to support. In this chapter, it will be a statement regarding the value of a population parameter.

14. In this chapter, there are three ways to set up the null and alternative hypotheses: • Equal versus not equal hypothesis (two-tailed test) H0: parameter = some value H1: parameter ≠ some value

15. In this chapter, there are three ways to set up the null and alternative hypotheses: • Equal versus not equal hypothesis (two-tailed test) H0: parameter = some value H1: parameter ≠ some value • Equal versus less than (left-tailed test) H0: parameter = some value H1: parameter < some value

16. In this chapter, there are three ways to set up the null and alternative hypotheses: • Equal versus not equal hypothesis (two-tailed test) H0: parameter = some value H1: parameter ≠ some value • Equal versus less than (left-tailed test) H0: parameter = some value H1: parameter < some value • Equal versus greater than (right-tailed test) H0: parameter = some value H1: parameter > some value

17. “In Other Words” The null hypothesis is a statement of “status quo” or “no difference” and always contains a statement of equality. The null hypothesis is assumed to be true until we have evidence to the contrary. The claim that we are trying to gather evidence for determines the alternative hypothesis.

18. Parallel Example 2: Forming Hypotheses For each of the following claims, determine the null and alternative hypotheses. State whether the test is two-tailed, left-tailed or right-tailed. • In 2008, 62% of American adults regularly volunteered their time for charity work. A researcher believes that this percentage is different today. • According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25 minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then. • Using an old manufacturing process, the standard deviation of the amount of wine put in a bottle was 0.23 ounces. With new equipment, the quality control manager believes the standard deviation has decreased.

19. Solution • In 2008, 62% of American adults regularly volunteered their time for charity work. A researcher believes that this percentage is different today. The hypothesis deals with a population proportion, p. If the percentage participating in charity work is no different than in 2008, it will be 0.62 so the null hypothesis isH0: p=0.62. Since the researcher believes that the percentage is different today, the alternative hypothesis is a two-tailed hypothesis: H1: p≠0.62.

20. Solution b) According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25 minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then. The hypothesis deals with a population mean, . If the mean call length on a cellular phone is no different than in 2006, it will be 3.25 minutes so the null hypothesis isH0: =3.25. Since the researcher believes that the mean call length has increased, the alternative hypothesis is: H1:  > 3.25, a right-tailed test.

21. Solution c) Using an old manufacturing process, the standard deviation of the amount of wine put in a bottle was 0.23 ounces. With new equipment, the quality control manager believes the standard deviation has decreased. The hypothesis deals with a population standard deviation, . If the standard deviation with the new equipment has not changed, it will be 0.23 ounces so the null hypothesis isH0:  = 0.23. Since the quality control manager believes that the standard deviation has decreased, the alternative hypothesis is: H1:  < 0.23, a left-tailed test.

22. Objective 2 • Explain Type I and Type II Errors

23. Four Outcomes from Hypothesis Testing • We reject the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true. This decision would be correct.

24. Four Outcomes from Hypothesis Testing • We reject the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true. This decision would be correct. • We do not reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true. This decision would be correct.

25. Four Outcomes from Hypothesis Testing • We reject the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true. This decision would be correct. • We do not reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true. This decision would be correct. • We reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true. This decision would be incorrect. This type of error is called a Type I error.

26. Four Outcomes from Hypothesis Testing • We reject the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true. This decision would be correct. • We do not reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true. This decision would be correct. • We reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true. This decision would be incorrect. This type of error is called a Type I error. • We do not reject the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true. This decision would be incorrect. This type of error is called a Type II error.

27. Parallel Example 3: Type I and Type II Errors For each of the following claims, explain what it would mean to make a Type I error. What would it mean to make a Type II error? • In 2008, 62% of American adults regularly volunteered their time for charity work. A researcher believes that this percentage is different today. • According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25 minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then.

28. Solution • In 2008, 62% of American adults regularly volunteered their time for charity work. A researcher believes that this percentage is different today. A Type I error is made if the researcher concludes that p≠0.62 when the true proportion of Americans 18 years or older who participated in some form of charity work is currently 62%. A Type II error is made if the sample evidence leads the researcher to believe that the current percentage of Americans 18 years or older who participated in some form of charity work is still 62% when, in fact, this percentage differs from 62%.

29. Solution b) According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25 minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then. A Type I error occurs if the sample evidence leads the researcher to conclude that >3.25 when, in fact, the actual mean call length on a cellular phone is still 3.25 minutes. A Type II error occurs if the researcher fails to reject the hypothesis that the mean length of a phone call on a cellular phone is 3.25 minutes when, in fact, it is longer than 3.25 minutes.

30.  = P(Type I Error) = P(rejecting H0 when H0 is true)  = P(Type II Error) = P(not rejecting H0 when H1 is true)

31. The probability of making a Type I error, , is chosen by the researcher before the sample data is collected. The level of significance, , is the probability of making a Type I error.

32. “In Other Words” As the probability of a Type I error increases, the probability of a Type II error decreases, and vice-versa.

33. Objective 3 • State Conclusions to Hypothesis Tests

34. CAUTION! We never “accept” the null hypothesis because without having access to the entire population, we don’t know the exact value of the parameter stated in the null. Rather, we say that we do not reject the null hypothesis. This is just like the court system. We never declare a defendant “innocent”, but rather say the defendant is “not guilty”.

35. Parallel Example 4: Stating the Conclusion According to a study published in March, 2006 the mean length of a phone call on a cellular telephone was 3.25 minutes. A researcher believes that the mean length of a call has increased since then. • Suppose the sample evidence indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected. State the wording of the conclusion. • Suppose the sample evidence indicates that the null hypothesis should not be rejected. State the wording of the conclusion.

36. Solution • Suppose the sample evidence indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected. State the wording of the conclusion. The statement in the alternative hypothesis is that the mean call length is greater than 3.25 minutes. Since the null hypothesis (=3.25) is rejected, we conclude that there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the mean length of a phone call on a cell phone is greater than 3.25 minutes.

37. Solution b) Suppose the sample evidence indicates that the null hypothesis should not be rejected. State the wording of the conclusion. Since the null hypothesis (=3.25) is not rejected, we conclude that there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the mean length of a phone call on a cell phone is greater than 3.25 minutes. In other words, the sample evidence is consistent with the mean call length equaling 3.25 minutes.