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Flash Flood Case Study : June 24, 2006

Flash Flood Case Study : June 24, 2006. Ray Kruzdlo Severe Weather Warning Technology Workshop Stories From the Field Norman, Oklahoma July 10-12, 2007. Synoptic Setup (18z/24). Synoptic Setup (12z/24). Synoptic Setup (18z/24). Synoptic Setup (00z/25). Regional Radar (19z/24).

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Flash Flood Case Study : June 24, 2006

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  1. Flash Flood Case Study : June 24, 2006 Ray Kruzdlo Severe Weather Warning Technology Workshop Stories From the Field Norman, Oklahoma July 10-12, 2007

  2. Synoptic Setup (18z/24)

  3. Synoptic Setup (12z/24)

  4. Synoptic Setup (18z/24)

  5. Synoptic Setup (00z/25)

  6. Regional Radar (19z/24)

  7. Regional Radar (23z/24)

  8. KDIX STP (2258z) Mainly 1 inch or less with embedded areas of 1 to 3 inches.

  9. KDOX STP (2256z) Mainly 1 to 2.5 inches with embedded areas 3 to 4 inches.

  10. FFMP : FFG and the 80% Rule 1.89/2.28=82.8% Chester Co 1 Hr FFG hit 80% at 1902z Event verified at 1930z 28 minute LT

  11. Monmouth County, NJ Warning issued at 2021z 2026z image Ratio = 32% 1.15/3.11=36.9%

  12. Monmouth County, NJ Event verified at 2200z 2159z Image Ratio = 34% Highest ratio during event = 47% at 2047z

  13. Storm Data Entry Poor drainage, street, and small creek flooding was reported especially across the southern portion of the county.

  14. Gloucester County, NJ Numbers don’t add up Warning issued at 2217z 2216z image Ratio = 45%

  15. Gloucester County, NJ Event verified at 2220z 2220z Image Ratio = 51% Highest ratio during event = 67% at 2237z Ratio and Diff don’t add up 1.54/2.48=62%

  16. Camden County, NJ Warning issued at 2217z 2216z image Ratio = 55% 1.76/2.95=59.6%

  17. Camden County, NJ Numbers add up, but not elsewhere Event verified at 2235z 2233z Image Ratio = 55% Highest ratio during event = 59% at 2224z

  18. Burlington County, NJ Warning issued at 2217z 2216z image Ratio = 24% .78/1.89=41.2%

  19. Burlington County, NJ Event verified at 2300z 2258z Image Ratio = 40% Highest ratio during event = 42% at 2241z 1.32/1.89=69.8%

  20. Storm Data Entries Thunderstorms with heavy rain caused flooding of roadways and small streams from central Gloucester County northeast through central portions of Burlington County. In Gloucester County, several roads were closed in and around Pitman with up to three feet of water on them. Roadway closures in Burlington County occurred in Burlington, Pemberton, and Southampton Townships. Measured storm totals included 4.20 in Glassboro (Gloucester County), 2.89 inches in Medford (Burlington County) and 2.59 inches in Wrightstown (Burlington County).

  21. Hydrologic Warning Shortcomings Urbanization - Urban flash flooding 15 to 30 minutes Types of precipitation - Warm rain processes Radar issues - Blockage, distance, Z-R relationship, FFMP Using multiple radars – one too high, the other too low FFMP – Reliance on radar and FFG, inconsistent values In this example, using only a method related to FFMP would have led to more missed events or events with zero lead time. The 80% rule did not work well. Was it because FFG was too high or STP inaccurate?

  22. Addressing the Shortcomings Unrelated to FFMP Understand meteorological event Questions related to FFMP Should FFG be issued more than 4 times a day when necessary? Could FFG be partially automated and recalibrated during an event? Hourly basis? Could observation data be ingested to supplement and/or correct radar based data? Can radar based data be improved? (dual pol and hail)

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