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Jos ée Morneau Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada.

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report. Jos ée Morneau Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada. Outline. Current Operational Status: (Gilles Verner) MSC Organization and Satellite Reception Facilities Telecoms and Computers

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Jos ée Morneau Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada.

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  1. Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Josée Morneau Gilles Verner Meteorological Service ofCanada Dorval, Québec, Canada.

  2. Outline • Current Operational Status: (Gilles Verner) • MSC Organization and Satellite Reception Facilities • Telecoms and Computers • Operational NWP System at CMC and Data Usage • MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR • Recent changes to NWP System and impact • Recent and Future Developments: (Josée Morneau)

  3. Environment Canada – 2004 Minister David Anderson Deputy Minister Suzanne Hurtubise Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency A S S I S T A N T D E P U T Y M I N I S T E R S Environmental Conservation Service Karen Brown Environmental Protection Service Barry Stemshorn Meteorological Service of Canada Marc Denis Everell Corp. Services Hélène Beauchemin Policy & Commumications. Norine Smith REGIONS Pacific & Yukon Prairie & Northern Ontario Quebec Atlantic

  4. Environment Canada 2006 – Results based Management CESF Outcome: Attain the highest level of environmental quality as a means to enhance the well-being of Canadians, preserve our natural environment, and advance our long-term competitiveness Departmental Strategic Outcomes 1. Canada’s natural capital is restored, conserved, and enhanced 2. Weather and environmental predictions and services reduce risks and contribute to the well-being of Canadians 3. Canadians and their environment are protected from the effects of pollution and waste 4. The impacts of climate change on Canada are reduced Intermediate Outcomes A. Biodiversity is conserved and protected. B. Water is clean, safe and secure C. Canadians adopt approaches that ensure the sustainable use and management of natural capital and working landscapes A. Improved knowledge and information on weather and environmental conditions influences decision-making B. Canadians are informed of, and respond appropriately to, current and predicted environmental conditions A. Risks posed by pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances in the environment are reduced B. Canadians adopt sustainable consumption and production approaches A. Net emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced. B. Canadians understand the impacts of climate change and adapt to its effects Outcome Project Groupings 1. Wildlife is conserved and protected [Trevor Swerdfager] 1. Aquatic ecosystems are conserved and protection [John Carey] 1. Integrated information and knowledge enables integrated approaches to protecting and conserving priority ecosystems [Jim Abraham & Albin Tremblay] 1. Environmental monitoring allows EC to identify, analyse and predict weather, air, water and climate conditions [Tom Nichols] 1. Environmental forecasts and warnings are produced to enable the public to take action to protect their safety, security and well being [Angèle Simard ] 1. Air quality is improved [Gordon Owen] 1. Canadians are informed of environmental pollution and are engaged in measures to address it [John Arseneau] 1. The climate change plan, Moving Forward on Climate Change, is implemented [Michael Beale 1. Adaptive strategies to address the impacts of climate change are developed and implemented for the benefit of Canadians and the environment (Michel Béland] 2. Land and landscapes are managed sustainably. [Bob McLean] 2. Information, assessment and understanding of the state of ecosystem sustainability supports decision-making [Michelle Brenning] 2. Science supports weather and environmental predictions and services, Departmental decision-making and policy development [Michel Béland] 2. Canadians are better informed through improved weather and environmental services and leveraged partnership opportunities [David Grimes–l] 2. Risks to Canadians and their environment posed by pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are assessed [John Arseneau] 2. Sector-based, and other approaches promote sustainable consumption and production (Cynthia Wright] 2. The long-term global climate change regime is consistent with Canadian interests [Sharon Lee Smith] 3. Canadians benefit from the creation and use fo meteorological, and environmental information by EC and F/P/T partners, in support of programs of common interest [Ken Macdonald] 3. Risks to Canadians and impacts on air, water, and land from pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are managed (Anne O’Toole l] 4. Environmental information and services empower Canadians to take action on environmental priorities [Suzan Bowserl] CESF - Competitiveness and Environmental Sustainability Framework

  5. Direct Receive DOMSAT EARS HRPT Receive Sites Tromso Gilmore Creek, Alaska Readiness For METOP Next Summer Edmonton Any METOP downloads at Gilmore Creek and Wallops? Halifax CMC Wallops, Virginia

  6. Direct Receive New - Gander? GOES Receive Sites Readiness For GOES-N Next Summer Edmonton Vamcouver Winnipeg Halifax Ottawa CMC (3) Montréal Toronto

  7. Telecommunications • GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T1 during 2003 • Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GOES - GTS back-up) • Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS • Internet still used for access to Nesdis data • Funding for dedicated link (T1+) with Nesdis approved, should be implemented soon as operational link, after the Nesdis relocation

  8. CMC Operational Models • 4D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T108), but 3D-Var for regional • Background errors stats from 24-48 method • Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR • Single GEM model (global, regional, meso) Global Model Regional Model • Uniform grid • Resolution of .9º (~100 km) • 28 eta levels, lid at 10 hPa • Kuo convection scheme • Sundqvist stratiform scheme • Force-restore surface module • with climatogical soil moisture • 10 day forecasts at 00Z • and 6 day forecasts at 12Z. • Cut-off of T+3h10 • Variable resolution grid • Resolution of .1375º (~15 km) • 58 eta levels • Kain-Fritsch scheme • Sundqvist stratiform scheme • ISBA surface module with • soil moisture pseudo-analysis • (error feedback, no data) • 48-hour forecasts (00Z -12Z) • Cut-off of T+1h35

  9. CMC Operational Models (cont.) Mesoscale model Global EPS • EnKF assimilation cycle with • 96 members, GEM at 1.2º • Resolution of ~150 km (1.2º • for GEM and T149 for SEF) • Forecasts with 16 members • Multi model approach with • different physics options • 16 day forecasts at 00Z and 12Z • Cooperation with NCEP for • NAEFS • GEM-LAM at 2.5 km, L58 • Non-hydrostatic • No convection parameterization • Explicit condensation (Kong-Yau) • ISBA surface module • No assimilation cycle • (started from 12hr GEM-15 + BC) • 24 hour forecasts at 12Z • 2 windows (SRN BC, Windsor- • Québec corridor), more later

  10. Regional model 575 X 641 grid (66% in 15-km uniform area), 58 levels

  11. Currently two GEM 2.5 domains

  12. OBS T + 1h40 6-h regional first guess 48h regional fst 3D-Var Analysis Data assimilation cycles at CMC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC OBS OBS T + 1h40 T + 5h30 6-h regional first guess 6-h regional first guess 3D-Var Analysis 3D-Var Analysis OBS OBS OBS OBS OBS T + 9h T + 6h T + 6h T + 9h T + 9h 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis OBS OBS OBS T + 3h T + 3h T + 3h 4D-Var Analysis 240h global fst 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 144h global fst OBS T + 5h30 6-h regional first guess 3D-Var Analysis

  13. Observations assimilated at the CMC Type Variables Thinning radiosonde/dropsonde U, V, T, (T-Td), ps 28 levels Surface report T, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water) 1 report / 6h Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) U, V, T 1o x 1o x 50 hPa per time step Ocean Land AMSU-A 3-10 6-10 AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4 ATOVS NOAA 15-16-17-18, AQUA 250 km x 250 km per time step Water vapor channel GOES 10-12 IM3 (6.7 m) 2o x 2o 3-hourly AMV (Meteosat 5-8, GOES 10-12, MTSAT-1R) U,V (IR, WV, VI channels) 1.5o x 1.5o 11 layers, per time step MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra) U,V ~180 km boxes 11 layers, per time step Profiler (NOAA Network) U,V (750 m) Vertical hourly

  14. +47% +107% +199% +0% +0% +494% +76% Average amount of data assimilated per day • Overall ~ 800 000 data assimilated per day with 4D-Var • 60% increase over 3D-Var.

  15. Q: Where are the ADS data East of 30° E? Also AIREPs have almost disappearedthere !! Availability of aircraft data • ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO (on GTS since July 05)

  16. Canadian AMDAR coverage

  17. Canadian AMDAR - Status • AC Jazz: 33 CRJ and 39 DHC-8 on GTS, 10 DHC-8 retained due to problems with data quality. More CRJ being added. CRJ data very good. • Still issues with DHC-8 TT data, although improved. • Some data from AMS (DHC-8 and B737) but not used nor transmitted due to data quality issues. • Some progress with First Air (B737 or B727 with TAMDAR) but data quality issues related to TAMDAR calibration. Some TAMDAR evaluation with GLFE. • C-ADAS to be replaced by in-house software. • Monitoring of data is on-going. Results showing importance of good monitoring before distribution of data.

  18. TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8

  19. TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8 CRJ data OK. For DHC-8, significant difference in bias between ascent / descent data. Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics.

  20. Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE

  21. Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE Some problems with GLFE TAMDAR data earlier in experiment

  22. Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE GLFE TAMDAR data much improved after significant work by AIRDAT. HR data not monitored.

  23. Other Canadian observations • Canadian AMDAR : other developments (although slow) with West Jet, AMS, Canadian North, First Air. • “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail. • Canadian radar data - now available centrally at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) operational, full volume scans available. • Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR. • Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…problems with BUFR data. • Montreal mesonet, including research wind profiler: under installation but operated by Universities, data not yet available to CMC and redistribution restrictions may apply…should be provided to USA profiler hub • Some soil TT data available, eventually in BUFR. • Code conversion to BUFR: Nothing done, except for AMDAR. • Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone. • Major data management project in MSC, should lead to all data available in BUFR. Target is 2-3 years.

  24. Ozone/UV Monitoring Networks Brewer: UVA/B and total column ozone at 9 sites. Data in NRT in local ascii format. Ozone soundings now done once weekly at 10 sites. Data on GTS in CREX, 2-3 days after measurement. Both are Research networks. Some discussions for better operations, including data transmission and formats.

  25. ALRT EURK TUKT SACH RESO INVK KIQI HOLM WHIT YELL NAIN BAKE KUUJ SCH2 WILL CHUR FLIN STJO BAIE ELIZ BCOV WSLR FRDN NTKA NANO VALD PRD S WINN CHWK PICL PTAL PGC5 ALBH ROSS ALGO UCLU HLFX DRAO NRC1 PARY PWEL KNGS A potential Canadian ground-based GPS network Raw GPS data received for ~30 sites from NRCan and IGS via FTP and processed in-house to ZTD (since Summer 2005) Sfc Met at 19 sites Hourly network (GAMIT) and Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are made available in NRT (J. Aparicio) Potential of ~ 127 sites CACS/RT: Canada-Wide Real-Time(GPS*C Service) CACS/PGR: Post-Glacial Rebound CACS/ATS: Arctic Tracking Stations CACS/GLP: Great Lakes Partnership (Sfc Met, CSA/MSC) CACS/WCDA: Western Canada Deformation Array not processed processed by NOAA/FSL Not shown: regional (provincial) networks, Canadian Coast Guard sites = Radiosonde-GPS collocations (7)

  26. Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting Minor changes : • AMV’s from MTSAT-1R : July 2005 (replacing GOES-P) • Blacklisting of DHC-8 AMDAR : Oct 2005 • Blacklisting amsu-a ch 6 from NOAA-15 : Oct 2005 • Blacklisting amsu-b ch a from NOAA-15 : Jan 2006 Assimilation of satellite data, December 7, 2005, in Global + Regional systems • AMSU-A and MHS on NOAA-18 • BUFR Winds for Meteosat-8 (replacing Meteosat-7) Major changes to EPS on December 13, 2005 • Forecast twice a day to day 16 • Inclusion of MODIS winds and AMSUA on AQUA • Improvements to EnKF algorithm (model error) • EnKF – 2x48 members replaced by 4x24 (better stats) • In forecast models, use of ISBA for ½ of members

  27. New Sat data GEM-15 4D-Var Recent NWP verification

  28. CSA Chinook mission • The CSA decided in early 2004 to make SWIFT the primary instrument for their second SciSat mission • The CSA selects GPS instrument as secondary payload with SWIFT and creates the Chinook Mission March 2005 • SWIFT and partner experiment ARGO are just about to start mission phase B/C contract/studies for projected launch in Nov 2010, 3 year mission • Unclear at this stage if data will be available in real-time, work and funding needed for this.

  29. PART 2 : OutlineRecent & future developments • 2006 : • Summer : new version of global model for Medium-range forecasting system & 4D-Var analysis changes • Fall : Update to Regional model for Short-Range Forecasting system • 2007 : • Winter : • METOP amsu-a & mhs, AIRS, SSMI & SSMI/S, COSMIC, 3 hourly sfc obs, QuikSCAT, update to AMV’s. • Revised bgck & obs error statistics. • Off-line biais correction for radiance data. • 2008+ : • Raise global model lid to 0,1 hPa • More obs … • GEM-LAM with Continental/Local 4D-Var LAM

  30. Main Features of the New Model Version (Stéphane Bélair, MRD) • Increased horizontal and vertical resolution • 800x600x58L (33 km) compared to 400x200x28L (100 km) • Numerical poles at geographic locations (non-rotated) • Representation of clouds and precipitation • Shallow convection with Kuo Transient • Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch (vs Kuo) • Modified Sundqvist scheme for grid-scale condensation • Bougeault-Lacarrère for the turbulent mixing length (vs Blackadar) • Constant thermodynamic roughness length over water in the Tropics (vs Charnock everywhere) • ISBA land surface scheme with sequential assimilation of soil moisture (based on OI) (vs Force-Restore)

  31. Other Changes to the 4D-Var Analysis (Stéphane Laroche, MRD)

  32. Environment Canada Horizontal Grid Opérationnel Global-méso 400X200 -> 100 km 800X600 -> 33 km at 45o N CPOP – 11 April 2006

  33. Global-méso 10hPa 58 eta levels DZ (km) Vertical Levels Opérationnel 10hPa 28 eta levels DZ (km)

  34. Global Evaluation of Precipitation NEW Contours: (mm/day) 0-1 1-5 5-10 10-20 >20 JAN 2002 GPCP OPE

  35. Global Evaluation of Precipitation NEW Contours: (mm/day) 0-1 1-5 5-10 10-20 >20 JUL 2002 GPCP OPE

  36. Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I new ope SSMI-13 WINTER new ope SSMI-13

  37. Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I new ope SSMI-13 SUMMER new ope SSMI-13

  38. Pre-implementation testing • Evaluation was done on 2 periods of two months each: • Summer 2004: 15 july @ 15 sept. 2004 • Winter 2005: 15 dec 2004 @ 15 feb 2005

  39. Environment Canada Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Northern Hem.) Summer Winter

  40. Environment Canada Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Southern Hem.) Summer Winter

  41. Tropics 72-h forecasts RMSE and BIAS 125 SUMMER cases Blue: Operational model Red: Global Meso

  42. Precipitation over North America (day 3) Summer Winter

  43. Environment Canada Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Typhoons over 14 cases (3-day runs) (Anne-Marie Leduc, CMC) Central pressure (hPa) Position (km)

  44. Winter 2007 : more observations & revised statistics • AIRS & SSMI radiances • 3 hourly sfc data • Off-line biais correction for radiances data. • Revised background & observation errors statistics • More low level AMV’s • SSMI/S radiances • QuikSCAT • Metop ATOVS amsu-a & mhs • COSMIC refractivity

  45. AIRS assimilation • 100 channels selected from 281 set • Use center pixel of 3 X 3 array (warmest now available) • Eliminate channels sensitive to ozone, peaking above model top at 10hPa, redundant surface channels, complex Jacobian shapes, with large RTM errors Identify channels insensitive to clouds. Main criteria: • Cloud height and emissivity from CO2 slicing. Local dtau/dp must be negligible up to 50hpa above cloud. • Background check (+/- 3 s)

  46. AIRS assimilation Short global cycle with current operational model (0,9o) February 2004

  47. SSMI assimilation :Experiment Description • Periods: July 1-31, 2003 ; January 1-31, 2004 • Control: 3D-Var, Global 0.9o model, direct assim. of GOES-W, and NOAA15,16,17* AMSU-A & AMSU-B Tbs, plus conventional obs • Experiment 1: addition of SSM/I Tbs over oceans in clear skies • Experiment 8: addition of SSM/I Tbs & removal of AMSU-A CH3, & reject AMSU-B CH2, 3, 4, 5 over oceans where CH2 |O-B|  5K (*AMSU-A data unavailable for January 2004)

  48. Mean Integrated Water Vapour (kg m-2):AMSRE – ANALYSIS July 2003 January 2004

  49. CNTL EXP1 CNTL EXP8 Forecast Validation Using Analyses January 2004

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