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Commodity Market (de)Regulation: Development Consequences and Prospects

Commodity Market (de)Regulation: Development Consequences and Prospects. Perspectives and Experiences from Africa. By: Kiama Kaara – Kenya Debt Relief Network kiama.kaara@kendren.org , +254 723 762 824 Presented at Civil Society Policy Forum, World Bank/IMF Spring Meeting 2011, Washington DC.

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Commodity Market (de)Regulation: Development Consequences and Prospects

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  1. Commodity Market (de)Regulation: Development Consequences and Prospects Perspectives and Experiences from Africa. By: KiamaKaara – Kenya Debt Relief Network kiama.kaara@kendren.org, +254 723 762 824 Presented at Civil Society Policy Forum, World Bank/IMF Spring Meeting 2011, Washington DC

  2. A Season of Crisis. Multiple/Triple Crisis Across SSA • Energy Crisis • Food Crisis • Political/Governance Crisis – Kenya, et al By Way of Background

  3. Three Bands Of Growth

  4. Fragility and Conflict

  5. Risk Anlaysis, EIU 2010

  6. SSA Terms of Trade 1998 – 2008, WB ARS (Feb 2011)

  7. MNCs Profits. As percentage of equity MNCs ProfitsAs a Percentage of firms returns

  8. Commodity Prices Crash, Exports Sink

  9. Returns on Resource Extraction. 02-08, Substantial Commodity Prices Increases, then Crash

  10. Commodity Devaluations. Change In Prices, July – Dec 08 (UNCTAD, The Global Economic Cris, May 09).

  11. UNCTAD Explains Transfer Pricing: on $2000, Sale, Tax = $226

  12. Crisis point exacerbated by excessive speculation. • Commodity markets – Central to African economies. Speculation – Hurts Macro Economic Framework Design • Ferments tensions – Responses – Arab spring, SSA ( Kenya – Unga 30 process) • Not necessarily a quantum issue – Value addition, etc. – Financialization at capitals. • Efforts to bring back Price Controls, Regulation – Kenya???? Going Forward

  13. it is difficult to identify any consistent policy explanation for this growth performance. The most powerful influences appear to be the impact of civil conflict and the instability of commodity prices… • The end or decline of conflict in more than a half-dozen countries resulted in an upward shift in the region’s growth rate of over two and one-half percentage points. (John Weeks, UNCTAD Report, Conflict and Commodities). Cont’d

  14. THANK YOU! / Asante Sana!! Work In Progress

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