Current & Future Opportunities for Wi-Fi in a 4G World

1. Current & Future Opportunitiesfor Wi-Fi in a 4G World Brough Turner rbt@ashtonbrooke.com broughturner@gmail.com

2. Global Satellite Suburban Urban In-Building Picocell Microcell Macrocell Basic Terminal PDA Terminal Audio/Visual Terminal ITU Vision for 3G

3. “3G” Services Limited adoption • 3G-324M Video telephony • Location-based services • Push-to-Talk (VoIP w/o QoS) • Rich presence (instant messaging) • Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) • IP Multimedia Services (w/ QoS) • Video sharing (conversational video on IP) • Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision Bypassed ! Limited adoption No traction Limited adoption Limited adoption Too late …

4. Mobile Internet access drives 3G data usage Future business models an open question Walled garden – too late ! Advertising ? Other 2-sided business models ? The Internet is the killer platform

5. Mobile Internet Access • For PC’s under restrictive terms of service, e.g. no servers, no P2P, no substitution for private lines or frame relay • AT&T: 5GB @ $60/mo • Verizon: ditto • Sprint: ditto • No US operator offers flat rate unlimited plans

6. iPhone glimmer of what’s possible • Controlled eco-system • Apps must meet unpublished Apple & AT&T requirements,e.g., VoIP over Wi-Fi, not 3G • Explosive growth in mobile broadband usage

7. iPhonetraffic

8. US data traffic

9. US 3G performance • Novarum Inc. (1/2010) • Measurements in 36 cities (Anaheim, …, Boston, …, Philly, …, Raleigh, …, Tempe) • 8-2007: 507/195 Kbps & 340 ms delay • 12-2009: 1.5 Mbps down • Doubling < 24 months

10. Increasing capacity 1 2 3 4 5 Wi-Fi Internet Femtocell Operator Services Add Cellsites ($$$) Newer radios ($$) More backhaul ($$$) 4. Femtocells ($$) 5. Wi-Fi ($)

11. Spectrum history • 1920: Primitive radio receivers • Needed to restrict who transmits • 1927- 1934: Origin of FCC, spectrum licensing • Ensuing decades - almost all spectrum assigned • Three bands reserved for “junk” uses • 1985: FCC authorizes spreadspectrum communications in theISM, or “junk” bands, i.e. • 900 MHz, 2.4 GHz, 5.8 GHz

12. Wi-Fi History

13. 2004 view of Wi-Fi market • Rampant growthhowever… • Article in ‘The Economist’ warns Wi-Fi under threat: • WiMAX in wide area • WiMedia in home

14. 1997: FCC authorizes Unlicensed National Information Infrastructure (U-NII) radio band providing 200 MHz more spectrum in 5 GHz band 2003: FCC adds 255 MHz to 5 GHZ bringing total spectrum to 555 MHz 2003-2009: Task Group n works to dramatically improve Wi-Fi performance, in part via MIMO and Beamforming 2007:802.11n draft 2 products certified by the Wi-Fi Alliance 2009: 802.11n specification approved Additional highlights Wi-Fi has pioneered the commercial deployment of thekey ‘4G’ wireless technology, i.e. OFDM, MIMO, Beamforming

15. In-Stat (Nov 09) • Worldwide hotspots reach 245,000 venues in 2009 • Hotspot connects increased in 2009 by 47 percent, bringing total worldwide 1.2 billion connects • Wi-Fi handset shipments grew 50%, 2007 to 2008 • Wi-Fi-enabled entertainment device (cameras, gaming devices, and personal media players) shipments projected to increase from 108.8 million in 2009 to 177.3 million in 2013

16. ABI Research (August 2009) • ABI projects 1 billion Wi-Fi chips in 2011 • Global shipments of Wi-Fi-enabled cell phones to double between 2009 and 2011 • 144 million in 2009 to 300 million in 2011 • 90% of smart phones Wi-Fi capable by 2014

17. Increasing capacity 1 2 3 4 5 Wi-Fi Internet Femtocell Operator Services Add Cellsites ($$$) Newer radios ($$) More backhaul ($$$) 4. Femtocells ($$) 5. Wi-Fi ($)

18. Femtocells: too little, too late • Primary users of 3G/4G data also have Wi-Fi • Laptops, smart phones • Corporate IT prefers Wi-Fi they control • Consumers deploying Wi-Fi anyway • For PCs, for gaming, for home media • Pay extra to help carrier improve their network? • Femtocell’s only value may be voice coverage

19. What’s next? • Wireless tipping point • 5 GHz becomes as valuable as 2.4 GHz or 700 MHz • Spatial reuse → incredible density increments • Wi-Fi leads the way • Leveraging Moore’s law and existing 802.11n spec. • Task Grp ac – Very high throughput <6GHz (2012?) • New biz ops!

20. Spectrum Myth TV Spectrum is “beach front” spectrum • Based on legacy technology, not physics! • Travels farther thru the air – No! • Thru windows – roughly the same • Goes thru masonry – yes, this is better …

21. Free space path loss Seems to say more , more loss But this equation encapsulates two effects: Actual path loss Receiving antenna aperture (assumed to be ½ wavelength) 5 GHz photons go just as far as 700 MHz photons !

22. Refraction and reflections Shorter wavelength - more reflections, refraction  “MultiPath”  “Ghosts” if a single receiver

23. MIMO: Multiple Input Multiple Output • Multiple paths improve link reliability and increase spectral efficiency (bps/Hz), range & directionality

24. Rich Indoor MIMO Multipath Source: Fanny Mlinarsky, Octoscope

25. Municipal Multipath Environment Source: Fanny Mlinarsky, Octoscope

26. Intel Fujitsu AMD Multiple channels per chip Like CPU cores … • 2x2 MIMO – 2008 • 4x4 MIMO – 2010-11 then • 8 radios, 16 radios?, … how to use silicon? Better and better beam-forming !

27. Beamforming • Select among multiple predefined antenna elements • Widely used with single radios (2G, 3G, Wi-Fi – Vivato, Ruckus Wireless) • Adaptive antenna arrays • Dynamically compute phase and amplitude for each antenna element • Adapts for desired signal while also reducing interference 8 antenna elements spread over 3.5 λs, i.e. ~18 cm, or < 7.5” at 5.8 GHz

28. 4x4 MIMOwith 8-12 antenna elements Beamforming ~2014: >300 Mbps Wi-Fi to ~1 Km at mass market prices ?

29. Commercial beamforming Wi-Fi beams, before silicon support … • Vivato (’02-’06) • Technical success, but expensive • Connect with 11g clients up to 2 km • Vivato-to-Vivato up to 18 km • Ruckus Wireless (today)  • 12 elements – selectively switched totwo channels on 2x2 silicon • Dramatically outperforms conventional2x2 systems

30. 11n wireless networking solutions in silicon • Founded 2006; customers include Netgear • 4x4 MIMO with beamforming

31. D-Link DAP-2553 Wavion Networks TVWS – Beach-front Property? • MIMO antenna element separation >= ½ wavelength • 2.1 meters at 70 MHz • 21 cm at 700 MHz • But only • 2.5 cm for 5.8 GHz Wi-Fi Ruckus Wireless

32. Wi-Fi 3G / 4G Supports mobile use at auto speeds Voice centric (voice revenues still king) 4-6 vendors, 1 application,<700 customers • Stationary clients or pedestrian motion • Data centric (VoIP an afterthought) • Wide-open market, many vendors, many market segments, many customers

33. Wi-Fi markets evolving • Well established in enterprises and on campus • Mesh products emerge to fill coverage gaps • Aruba Networks, BelAir Networks, Bluesocket, Cisco, Clearsite Communications, Firetide, Locust World, Meraki, Mesh Dynamics, Motorola, Nortel, Open-Mesh, Packet Hop, Ruckus Wireless, SkyPilot Networks, Strix and Tropos • Mesh node as bridge from outdoor to indoor

34. Muni Wi-Fi • Wireless broadband access networks • Take 2; recovering from early Metro Wi-Fi • Dozens of US cities now succeeding • Cities bring real estate, look to save current $ • Communications for police & other city services • But strong pressure for “free” in some form • 40% of APs are open (espc. Consumer APs)

35. Variations on Free • Retail business giveaway • Coffee shops, restaurants, hotels, retail • Harvard Sq. Business Association • Sponsorship – locations, events • Carrier supported • e.g. Cablevision’s Optimum Wi-Fi By kumasawa

36. More free  Ad supported • Didn’t work in 2005; working now… • Costs way down; usage and interest up • Freerunr in UK (& NL, RS, ZA) • Splash screens, limited duration free periods, … • JiWire in US – Ad platform for free Wi-Fi • Used by Microsoft Bing nationwide Wi-Fi offer • Sputnik in US – Ad supported model growing

37. 100x mesh performance coming • Wi-Fi mesh performance has been extremely limited • Multi-path limited link capacity & favored 2.4 GHz • Single radios with omni antennas mean all links share one 20 MHz channel, so mesh capacity drops ~x2 per node • Pt-to-pt links = dramatic increase in mesh capacity • Directional antennas today; software beamforming soon • Multi-radio mesh nodes • Separate channels for each link; note: there are eleven 40 MHz channels available at 5 GHz

38. Enterprise design adapted for BB

39. ILEC price umbrella • Cost of Internet transit @ urban IXPs • <$4 /Mbps /month (multi-Gbps quantities) • <$9 /Mbps /month (<=100 Mbps) • Elsewhere, even 1 block away, very expensive • T1 $299, 5Mbps $599, 10 Mbps $1299 /month • This is $120-$200 /Mbps /month  20x-50x markup • Fosters wireless bypass • WISPs operating 20%-50% under ILEC price umbrella

40. Wireless ISPs • > 2000 WISPs, in fast growing segment • Most use license-exempt spectrum • Mix of pre-WiMAX, WiMAXand, increasingly, Wi-Fi gear

41. Wi-Fi for wireless broadband • WISPs already use license-exempt spectrum • Sometimes with a few licensed microwave links • 11g & 11a, rapidly migrating to 11n technology • Performance advantage is significant • Dramatically lower cost • 5x or more vsWiMAX or pre-WiMAX systems • Increasing reliability, similar performance

42. Ubiquiti targets Wireless ISPs Point-to-point$180-$600 Point-to-multipoint~$240 & $88

43. Example Wi-Fi Pt-2-Pt Link Ubiquiti BULLET-M5-HP With 28dbi Grid Antenna 802.11n Purchased through distribution:

44. Community WISP, Inc.

45. Wireless broadband Internet access for all of Brevard County • Served from 4 locations • 900 MHz, 2.4 GHz & 5 GHz, i.e. all license-exempt spectrum • 30/10 Mbps in many areas • Expanding into Volusia and Seminole counties

46. Summary • Wi-Fi will dominate 3G/4G data offload • Triple play operators already bundling “free” Wi-Fi • 3G/4G service providers will follow • Eventually, high speed Wi-Fi will be the norm • 3G/4G coverage, merely a fallback • Wi-Fi fosters resurgence in independent ISPs • Wireless ISPs offering wireless broadband access

47. Thank You Brough Turner broughturner@gmail.com rbt@ashtonbrooke.com

48. Credits, References • Image credits, beyond those noted in-line… • Office building facade: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Beek100 • Laptop icon: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ichibod/ • Microwave oven: http://www.flickr.com/photos/code_martial/ • Other useful references • Novarum Inc. measurements: http://www.novarum.com/publications.php • NIST Electromagnetic Signal Attenuation in Construction Materials http://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/build97/PDF/b97123.pdf

49. 802.11n in-the-field • Ken Biba: • The King is Dead, Long Live the King: 802.11n dramatically improves Wi-Fi outdoors • Real world measurements show muni Wi-Fi networks outperform WiMAX and cellular • Tom’s Hardware • Reviews Ruckus Wireless 11n access point with beamforming, http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/beamforming-wifi-ruckus,2390.html • Net, net – it really works!