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Key issues framing the SEA scope

Key issues framing the SEA scope. Related to electricity demand and power trade development in the LMB and GMS. Briefing to TNMC Based on the Presentations Made to NMCS/Line Agencies And separate CSO/NGO Consultation Meetings In Viet Nam, Lao PDR and Cambodia.

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Key issues framing the SEA scope

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  1. Key issues framing the SEA scope Related to electricity demand and power trade development in the LMB and GMS Briefing to TNMC Based on the Presentations Made to NMCS/Line Agencies And separate CSO/NGO Consultation Meetings In Viet Nam, Lao PDR and Cambodia

  2. Purpose of this Presentation Illustrate /explore: • Trends in electricity demand-supply in the LMB/GMS • Linkages to the GMS sustainable energy futures – and regional context of cross-border power • Proposed mainstream dams in relation to the above trends (multiple seller- multiple buyer) Focused on the opportunities side of the Development “Opportunities-Risk” Equation

  3. LMB Selected indicators 2004 Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008

  4. Regional GMS energy issues Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2009

  5. UN Human Development index + Per Capital Electricity Use (2005) Per Capital Electricity Use 4,000 kwh / yr /pc As turning point In HDI Per capita electricity use Electricity consumption in LMB / GMS relative to other countries + Human Development Index Source: Building Sustainable energy futures in the GMS, ADB, 2009

  6. Significant differences in urbanization and household electricity consumption in LMB Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB, 2009

  7. Overall trend in GDP growth + electricity consumption in GMS correlated Example: Thailand growth of net electricity consumption and GDP 1982-2006 Growth + Electricity No trend decoupling of overall energy consumption seen yet - as in OECD economies

  8. High economic growth in the LMB 1985-2005 Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008

  9. What about the current economic crisis? Current downturn in rate of economic growth in the GMS Source: World Bank 2009 e – expected f - forecast

  10. Trend with last Asia economic downturn Thailand growth rates: electricity consumption, total energy and GDP - 1982-2006 Source: EIA 2009, UNSD 2009

  11. Changing economic environment?

  12. Projected growth in grid power demand in LMB Countries 2005-2025 Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (base case projection)

  13. What this means from a Regional Power Planner PerspectiveGrid Based Generation Expansion • Future Capacity Additions • Natural Gas? • Coal? • Oil? • Hydro from tributaries or LMB mainstream? • Nuclear? • Co-generation, etc • Grid-scale biomass • Grid-scale Wind, Solar • Other Grid-scale renewable? Energy Demand • Other: • Power Import • Replacement Plant • Fuel-Switching Projected energy demand Projected energy demand with demand management • Existing Capacity • Natural gas • Coal • Oil • hydropower • biomass • Etc. Supply time Today Need for new generation delayed through demand-side management & supply-side efficiency measures *RoW = Rest of World

  14. GMS energy resources – for grid-scale electricity generation (ADB) Hydro (MWyr/yr) - ADB Other renewable sources - Different grades Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008

  15. Electricity Generation Scenarios – Fuel Type Four GMS Scenarios – new generation capacity to 2025 One Interpretation – GMS Energy Futures ADB • From ADB Between 217,000 – 238,000 MW Hydropower Between 62,000 – 93,000 MW

  16. Trends in GMS cross-border power trade? Under Integrated GMS Scenario • Inter-government Agreement on Regional Power Trade (2002) • GMS Power Trade Road Map - as reference • Existing Bilateral Power Trade MOUs, subject to PPAs • E.g. Thailand’s MOU’s with • Lao PDR (5,000 MW) • Cambodia • Others, including China Cross-border trade is the key motivating factor for 11+ proposed LMB hydropower schemes (buyer + seller perspectives) Why? Policy + Legal Framework

  17. 2025 Trend in cross-border Power Trade Trade flow (GWh) in 2005 2025 Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008

  18. 2005 2025 Projected electricity trade within 2005-2025One Trend Scenario – GMS (ADB) Under Integrated GMS Scenario ? Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB, 2009

  19. 11+ Proposed LMB Mainstream dams in the Context of Cross-Border Trade 12-14,000 MW and up to 65,000 GWh av. annual 11.5% of installed capacity in LMB by 2020 9.3% of power produced in the LMB by 2020 5% of new generation capacity in GMS by 2025 (ADB Base case) Abut 10 Nam Theun 2’s All LMB schemes together represent near:

  20. Potential Markets for Mainstream Dams Installed Capacities (MW) subject to change Myanmar PRC • No mainstream projects proposed 8 in operation, under construction and planned, total 13,800 MW Viet Nam 1,410 MW 1,230 MW Luang Prabang 1,410 MW Sambor 2,600 MW Stung Treng 800 MW 1,260 MW 1,320 MW 1,200 MW Thailand 1,872 MW Lao & Cambodia 800 MW Pak Beng 1,230 MW Xayabori 1,260 MW Pak Lay 1,300 MW Sanakham 1,200 MW Ban Khoum 1,827 MW Lat Sua 800 MW Don Sahong 360 MW 360 MW • A proportion of generation for domestic power expansion • Units from schemes, subject to agreements 980 MW 2,600 MW

  21. Summing Up Framing Issues Regional Energy Demand / Power Trade 5 general themes in discussions to date (in Cambodia, Lao & Viet Nam) • National policy framework - what policies are relevant to place decisions on LMB mainstream dams in a basin-wide sustainable context? • Demand - Is the power needed? Is the picture changed with the economic downturn? • Supply - Other options to meet electricity needs? theoretical and practical ? What lead time is needed? • Priorities – to meet urban or rural needs? • Transboundary dimensions - What are the opportunities and constrains? Sharing benefits? Mechanisms?

  22. Structural / Infrastructure options Conventional Thermal? gas, coal, oil End-Use Efficiency? Electricity Imports? Hydro Tributaries? Distribution Loss Reduction? Hydro Mainstream? Bulk metering? Grid-scale Renewable? E.g. wind, biomas, solar Power Factor correction? Other non Conventional? Nuclear? Structural Change in Demand? Decentralized Systems? Demand-Side Management Options Power Sector Supply-Side Options Supply-side efficiency? Improved facility operations? Tariff measures? Preferential Energy Rates? Improved cost recovery? Subsidy on power saving? Policies to attract investors? Carbon Tax? Public and private sector roles? Non-Structural Options Change for SEA: Measure and Manage Expectation e.g. NGO / CSOs and others advocate expanding consideration of options

  23. How will the SEA address divergent views?On the power and energy theme • SEA now at Preparation Stage – consultation oriented. • Focus on the 11+ mainstream dams • Systematically bring existing information in a timely way to feed immediate needs (e.g. MRC Procedures) + longer term planning Inception Report and Baseline Assessment - to follow • Trend analysis - how mainstream dams impact on development trends • Scenario analysis - ‘With and without’ mainstream dams scenario’s feeding new information to MRC Hydropower Database > BDP Scenario. • Opportunities and Risks – analysis of development opportunities and risks, mitigation and enhancement using the SEA Framework

  24. Thank you

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