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U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

SoSAFE and ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario for GG08 M w 7.8 on the Southern San Andreas Fault Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D. U. S. Geological Survey Leader, So. San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project June 11, 2007 Southern California Earthquake Center - Leadership Retreat.

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U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

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  1. SoSAFE and ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario for GG08Mw 7.8 on the Southern San Andreas FaultKenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D.U. S. Geological SurveyLeader, So. San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) ProjectJune 11, 2007Southern California Earthquake Center - Leadership Retreat U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  2. Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project Initial Mtg. held at SCEC annual mtg. Initial Workshop Jan. 8-9, 2007 at SCEC Commemorating the Sesquicentennial of the 1857 Fort Tejon Earthquake SCEC RFP Science Priority Objective A1: “Define slip rate and earthquake history of southern San Andreas fault system for last 2000 years” The newly formed SCEC Southern San Andreas Fault (SoSAFE) Project will increase our knowledge of slip rates and paleo-event chronology for the past two thousand years on the southern San Andreas fault system. From Parkfield to Bombay Beach, and including the San Jacinto fault, the objective is toobtain new data to clarify and refine relative hazard assessments for each potential source of a future 'Big One.' This initial meeting is an opportunity for participants to hear and discuss this new addition to the SCEC RFP, to openly discuss their interests, and to facilitate future collaborations in the broader context of a decade-long series of interdisciplinary, integrated and complementary studies on the southern San Andreas fault system. Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  3. We Are SoSAFE! SoSAFE Workshop Jan. 8-9, 2007 at SCEC Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  4. After Jan. workshop, $100K committed by Pat Leahy despite the all-year CR; in the end received full funding at $240K (!) Support recommended by SCEC PC PI’s Scharer, Platt, Biasi, Kashgarian, Oskin, Arrowsmith, McGill, Seitz Partial support for new work at Cuddy Valley, Cow Spring (NW Mojave section SAF) and Clark Lake (SJF), and for continued work at promising sites (Bidart, Coachella, Salt Creek, Biskra Palms) Partial support for excellent students (Behr, Philobosian, Le, Toke) Funds for workshop #2 and coordination meetings Coordinated GeoEarthScope geochronology requests through a SoSAFE telecon Several SoSAFE-related proposals sent to USGS NEHRP Planning to submit an NSF proposal through SCEC - Dec. 1, 2007 (~$400K/yr for five yrs.) SoSAFE Initial Year USGS MHI Funds to SCEC Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  5. Courtesy of Tom Fumal Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  6. SoSAFE In-Field Scientific Review Process Grant, Akciz & Arrowsmith SoSAFE reviewers: Weldon, Kendrick, Borsa Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  7. Mw7.8 ‘ShakeOut’ Scenario (Nov. 13, 2008) • San Andreas ‘Really Big One’ simulated earthquake • Initiation near Bombay Beach (unilateral rupture to the NW) • Slip of 4.5 meters at Cajon Pass (I-15); disruption of critical lifeline infrastructure (freeway, internet, power and gas lines) • Basic description sent out via OES statewide and announced at SoSAFE workshop Jan. 9, 2007 • Developments needed: • Earthquake Early Warning • Zipper array along fault • Lifeline crossings • Building Damage Assessment • DamageMap Credit: Nitin Gupta, OpenSHA & Ned Field, USGS Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  8. Basic Rupture Description: Mw 7.8, unilateral rupture starting at Bombay Beach SE endpoint (Bombay Beach): 33.35009, -115.71192 NW endpoint (Lake Hughes): 34.698495, -118.508948 Static Rupture Description 23 points along-strike (from SCEC CFM-R) Slip predictable model to construct slip distribution along-strike Slip rates, dips and depths for all sections of the San Andreas from the WGCEP, Appendix A. by Wills, Weldon and Bryant (March 1, 2007 - draft version) Kinematic Rupture Description Uses the SCEC CFM triangular surface representation in full detail (rather than the CFM-R). The above Static Rupture Description slip distribution formed the 'background' model during construction of the Kinematic Rupture Description as follows; a 30 km wavelength random slip function was convolved with the background slip. Then, scaling criteria were applied to the slip distribution to generate the rise time and rupture speed. From this, contours showing the rupture front at one-second intervals were also computed. Available with documentation at --- http://urbanearth.usgs.gov Earthquake Scenario at 3 Levels of Detail Hudnut, Jones & Aagaard (SSA 2007) Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  9. ShakeOut - Static Rupture Description 1812 1857 1680 1857 1680 1812 slip (meters) thrusting & folding thrusting & folding WGCEP Slip Rates: Slip Rates: 20±3 10±3 16±3 22±6 28±7 28±7 22±6 16±3 10±3 20±3 rupture propagation direction NW end Lake Hughes SE end Bombay Beach Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  10. Kinematic Rupture Model (beta v.1) CP SE (BB) SGP NW View is from a point to the NE and above the San Andreas fault Slip (meters) more details available on the Urban Earth www site or by contacting Hudnut or Aagaard including RefEq standard rupture model format file Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  11. Courtesy of Rob Graves Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  12. Courtesy of Rob Graves Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  13. San Andreas - need to instrument majorlifeline infrastructure crossings L A Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  14. Effect of an earthquakeon the economy Expected activity Economic activity ‘Disaster’ (a few yrs.) ‘Catastrophe’ (decades) Disaster or Catastrophe? Need to encourage action to reduce impacts Time Need to increase society's "tenacity" (Jones, Hudnut & Bernknopf - SSA poster)

  15. San Andreas fault at Cajon Pass - critical lifeline crossing San Andreas fault zone B4 LiDAR imagery before and after earthquake for measuring fault offsets - supports mitigation & rapid restoration of lifeline infrastructure Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  16. B4 data at work for SoSAFE & ShakeOut Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  17. Critical Lifelines Infrastructure Impacts Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

  18. SoSAFE is under way (SCEC paleoseismology)B4 LiDAR Project completed; data openly availableSCEC funds distributedUSGS NEHRP RFP deadline &NSF proposal preparationsMW 7.8 earthquake scenario has been specifiedhttp://urbanearth.usgs.gov/3 levels of rupture description detail made availablenext-generation attenuation relation models done - to be input to HAZUSground motion simulations in progressSlip at Lifelines Fault Crossings has been specifiedeconomic modeling to be conductedworkshop with lifeline operators (May & Oct. 2007)Multi-hazard triggered events to be includedin the scenarioShakeOut exercise - November 13, 2008 - GG08 Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

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