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Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Defense Overview

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Defense Overview. 26 August 2009 Version 3.1 STAFF BRIEF (18 Slides). As Created by Robert Steele. Defense Intelligence Old & New. Cold War-Service-Centric. New War-Mission Centric. Mission is War in All Its Forms Everything is a “Target”

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Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Defense Overview

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  1. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Defense Overview 26 August 2009 Version 3.1 STAFF BRIEF (18 Slides) As Created by Robert Steele

  2. Defense Intelligence Old & New Cold War-Service-Centric New War-Mission Centric Mission is War in All Its Forms Everything is a “Target” Unconventional Forces Whole of Government Matters Mission Centric Intelligence Matters More Comms Must be Universal Government Bankrupt for Now Acquisition Must Shine Multinational Multifunctional • Mission is Big War Only • Limited Hard Targets • Conventional Forces • DoD Rules & Runs Alone • Service-Centric • Intelligence Marginalized • Comms Internal, Secret • Unconstrained Funding • Acquisition Inept & Wasteful • Unilateral Militarism

  3. Global War Both General & In the Shadows Global Operations Other Than War (OOTW) Global Law Enforcement & Regulation Whole of Government Waging Peace & Commerce Includes Decision-Support to All AO’s & Congress All Information in All Languages All the Time All Humans, All Minds, All the Time Family, Health, Justice, Immigration Stabilization & Reconstruction, Humanitarian Assistance, Disaster Relief, Small Wars SIGINT GEO-IMINT MASINT IO HUMINT Agriculture, Diplomacy, Economy, Energy, Health, Society, Water OSINT Discipline Shared Raw Information in NRT OSINT Service (Consumers) Direct Support TO OSINT Discipline M4IS2 Hub OSINT Support (Producers)

  4. OSINT Provides Greatest Satisfaction of EEI at Lowest Cost USG Lacks A Central Repository for All-Source Information What We CAN Afford is a Central Repository for All OSINT 50% More Satisfying Do Not Exist Transformation Innovation Sweetspot OSINT HUMINT* STATE SIGINT IMINT MASINT 0% Less Costly 50% * CIA HUMINT Only. Source : CIA Collection Requirements & Evaluation Staff, 1996

  5. Global Information Grid Meets Reality Secret Discovery $65B/Yr for 4% “At Best” Universe of Information Neighborhood Granularity Deep Web (English) What Search “Finds” (75+ Different Engines) (Includes Mis-Information) Source of the Whole: Steve Arnold, CEO Arnold IT Source 4% “at best”: General Tony Zinni, USMC (Ret)

  6. Where Did We Go Wrong? How Do We Leap Ahead NOW? Digital Analog Oral/Historical Digital Analog Oral/Historical Foreign Language 33 core, 183 relevant English HUMAN to HUMAN MACHINE SPEED English Foreign Language 33 core, 183 relevant NGA NRO State FBIS CIA/DO M4IS2 UN/ NGO NSA TS/SCI Status Quo Achievable NOW M4IS2: Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing & Sense-Making

  7. $65 Billion a Year TS/SCI Tubes Individual Targets Virtually No Assets Dr. Cambone got it right: Universal coverage; Neighborhood granularity Organizational Targets Very Few Assets State Targets Lots of Assets Not suitable for redirection $600 Million a Year Very Badly Managed

  8. # Raw Available Information Billions with Access to Internet Billions with Cell Phones Totality of Human Intelligence Sucking Chest Wound Intelligence Spending as Percent of Program 50 OSINT $ TIME

  9. One-Way BIG PIPE NRT Bridge to SIPR US IC USG Raw Open Source In OSINT on Demand Out Multinational Decision-Support Centre (MDSC) Two-Way Reachback Raw Open Source In OSINT on Demand Out Media DIOSC NGO Military Hub Host Academia UN/NGO LEA Host Civil Society Host Commercial Govt

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  11. Levels of Intelligence Investment Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Future Far Future Near Strategic Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Strategic- Operational Operational Partial Sharing + Inter-Tribal National + Regional Multinational -- History & Current Interests Help Desk (Shared) Private Answers NOW 30% Need, 20% Cost Now Recurring Monitoring All Topics Big & Small 40% Need, 10% Cost Strategic, Operational, Tactical Multinational & Inter-Tribal Information Sharing & Sense-Making Herring Triangle Jan Herring, NIO/S&T 1970’s Competitive Intelligence Guru

  12. 10 High-Level Threats to Humanity 21st Century Demands Defense in Depth 3 Immigration Education Diplomacy Economy 2 Agriculture 1 Justice Security Family Health Energy Society Water Poverty Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards Disease Ecology Inter-State War 0 Civil War Genocide Other Atrocities Prolfieration Terrorism 0 Trans. Crime

  13. High-Level Threats to Humanity True Costs Known Terrorism Proliferation Poverty Inter-State Conflict & Civil War Infectious Disease 9 8 Transnational Crime 4 & 5 1 10 2 Genocide & Other Atrocities Environmental Degradation 3 ENERGY 6 & 7 TIME Agriculture Water Diplomacy Justice & Security Economy & Immigration Energized Reality-Based Policies Health Family & Society Energetically Waging Peace for Profit Education

  14. Re-Focusing Defense IntelligenceCenter Collection on HUMINT-OSINT Directorate of Open Sources & Methods (DO) DH to status as “god-father” of DO Global Virtual Translation Network within DO New ATL/OTE and IG Support Branches Plan for MILCON OSINT/MDSC Center in NCA Create Peace Support Network with USIP Civil Affairs Brigade Integrated into ConOps Office of Information-Sharing Agreements Co-located with NDIC and Library Multinational Decision-Support Centre (MDSC) Brief 90 Nations, invite 1-3 person rotationals Create unclassified “pit”/”cave” at MDSC Create NRT feed of all DO raw information to SIPR Create Multinational Analytic Support Brigade

  15. Re-Structuring Defense IntelligenceOrganizational Intelligence through Processing DoD Does Not Do Any of These Well DIA Has a Chance to Create a Pilot that Does Cell Phones and Rapid SMS are the Field Key Harvesting Commercial Information Also Key DIA is Can Pioneer Organizational Intelligence Africa, Central Asia, South America all Prospects We Can Demonstrate Kinetic Value of OSINT • OSINT Program Line Will Allow Fresh Start • Get Allocations Right in First Place • Strategic Forecasting with EarthGame • Global Intelligence Council, Multinational • Global Help Desk within DIOSC and MDSC • Global Network of Issue Monitors Online • Common Global View of the Battlefield

  16. Re-Vitalizing Defense IntelligenceAnalytics Must be Whole—In Depth QDR Will Get It Wrong Without Integral Analysis’ DoD Today Optimizes for 10% of the Threat DoD Today Obsessing on Two Small Boxes (0) Ten High-Level Threats Demand DoD Respect Twelve Policies Reduce DoD Exposure & Expense Eight Challengers will Determine the Future What We Can Do Is Show Them the Way Forward Holistic Analysis Centered on Energy Threats are Related to One Another Policies Must be Harmonized within USG Spending Must be Harmonized by Issue Area USG Can Use OSINT to Influence Others’ $$$ Global Range of Needs Table Available Information Peacekeeping & Arbitrage

  17. History • OMB Staff OK with $125M/Year IOC • USD(I) Offered USSOCOM $2B/Year FOC • OSINT Moribund Since BGen Stewart left • Convergence of Players Occurring • Recommendations • DIA elevate DIOSPO to Direct Report/DO • OSINT Program Line Across DoD • $125M IOC from 1 October 2009 • USMC and USSOCOM as Pilot Partners • MILCON for Quantico OSINT Center inclusive of Multinational Decision-Support Center

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