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OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA

Explore Obama's foreign policy in Latin America driven by diplomacy, U.S. interests, and changing conditions leading to a historic shift in U.S.-Cuba relations. Review the rationales behind policy alternatives and the challenges faced in the region. Witness the pivotal moments and decisions that shaped the relationship between the U.S. and Latin American countries.

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OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA

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  1. OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA WHAT’s UP?

  2. What Drives Foreign Policy? • Generosity • Friendship • Proximity • Repayment of historical debt Or • Self-centered national interest.

  3. Rationales for Alternatives • U.S. loss of “soft power” • Continuing frustration in Latin America • Importance of Latin America to U.S. • Change of U.S. administration as result of presidential election

  4. The Obama Beginning • Exaggerated expectations • Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Iraq, Afghanistan) • Hesitant beginnings (no “Cairo” speech) • Nuanced view of Latin America

  5. EXPLAINING LOW PRIORITIES • Absence of crisis • Competing priorities (e.g., Afghanistan, ISIS) • Are we getting all we need? • Petroleum • Cooperation on drugs (Mexico, Colombia) • Support for anti-terrorism • Decline of revolutionary activity • Rise of democracy (in limited sense) • Immigration (net flow now zero) • Trade and investment • Peace a subsidy for projection of U.S. power • Paradox: The better the neighborhood, the less the attention

  6. First Term: A Rocky Start • Honduras: commitment to democracy? • Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo • Points of tension: • Venezuela • Bolivia • “New Left” in general • War on Drugs • Immigration

  7. War on Drugs • Mérida Initiative ($1.6 billion) • Opposition to legalization • More of the same…?

  8. Immigration • No comprehensive reform… not yet, anyway • Deportations (1.1 million!) • Executive initiative in second term, congressional oppositioin

  9. THE AMAZING TURNAROUND INU.S.-CUBA RELATIONS Foundations of U.S. Policy: Economic and Diplomatic Isolation • 1959: Cuban Revolution • 1961: Bay of Pigs Invasion • 1962: October Missile Crisis • 1996: Helms-Burton Act Obstacles to Reform • 1982 designation of Cuba as “state sponsor of terrorism” • Human rights and political prisoners • Cuban-American resistance, role of Florida

  10. CHANGING CONDITIONS • Raul Castro takes over from Fidel 2008 • Release of prisoners in 2010-2011 • New generation of Cuban-Americans • Obama wins Cuban-American vote in Florida in 2012

  11. SEIZING OPPORTUNITY • Announcement December 17, 2014 • Prisoner releases plus easing of restrictions (on remittances, travel, banking) • April 2015: Obama and Castro meet at Summit of the Americas in Panama • Reopening of embassies July 20, 2015 (as yet no formal U.S. ambassador) • Early 2016: further easing of economic sanctions • March 21-22: Obama visit to Cuba (first U.S. president in 88 years, since Calvin Coolidge!)

  12. WORLD REACTIONS • U.S. Republicans vigorously opposed; no prospect for lifting of embargo • 63% Americans support resumption of diplomatic relations, 66% end to embargo • U.S. business long in favor • 2013 UN General Assembly condemned U.S. embargo for 22nd consecutive year, 188-2 • Strong support in Latin America (as in OAS), but: • Mexico • Venezuela

  13. WHY DID THEY DO IT? • Cuba • Disappearing sponsors (Soviet Union, Venezuela) • Political isolation • Need for investment, economic growth • Exhaustion of “revolutionary” spirit • Opportunity: Obama > Others • United States • Economic opportunities • Soft power: approval of world community, Latin America • Obama’s quest for “legacy” and use of executive power • Hasten political change within Cuba Thus: interests, not altruism

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