Gig.U

1. Gig.U Blair Levin Executive Director, Gig.U Presentation TTI/Vanguard December 6, 2011 Big Broadband: Changing the Equation to Accelerate Innovation

2. Problem How do we accelerate the arrival of the next generation of broadband networks and services?

3. Spoiler Alert: The Answer C + O < (r)R + EB

4. Why is it important? Technological Leadership Creates ecosystem of knowledge for designing, building and operating networks and devices Key to accelerating innovations and economic growth

5. Early action leads to leadership Winner Mobile telephone Invention Ubiquity Internet Accelerated pace of development means less time to react – so the slow lose out INNOVATION Television Telephone Act now Incremental Value Add Electricity Potentialforcompetitiveadvantage Act later mediumvalue add highvalue add lowvalue add Loser Time

6. Why is it important? Technological Leadership Key to accelerating innovations and economic growth Increases the “adjacent possible” for every sector

7. What Drives Productivity? Contribution to Long-term Productivity Growth 52% ImprovedLabor Quality 11% Technological change and other factors Capital Investment 37% Data: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

8. Lessons in Innovation: Bring everything to the table In April 1970, a liquid oxygen tank on the Apollo 13 space craft exploded. Among other problems, Mission Control must find a way to filter the air for the crew on their return trip. They assemble the crew’s available resources and built a contraption called the “mailbox.” The crew replicated this fix on board and arrived home safely.

9. Lessons in Innovation: Enable the adjacent possible Gutenberg used a wine press for his printing press. Engineers used analog vacuum tubes to make digital computers. NeoNurture incubators are made from auto parts. Every talk at this conference is a function of someone figuring out a new adjacent possible….

10. Where does innovation take place? The biggest leaps in growth are driven by meta-ideas… Improving the exchange of information improves the conditions for innovation.

11. How to apply the lessons of innovation? In the last 2 decades, three revolutions have transformed knowledge exchange:

12. Broadband is our common collaborative platform Broadband Ecosystem Improvements in each element of the ecosystem drive improvements in others in a virtuous cycle.

13. Broadband is our common collaborative platform If devices need to improve 100x in 10 years, what do the networks need to do? If devices get smaller, what does that do to the demands on networks? Broadband Ecosystem If we replace matter with software, what does that do to demands on the network?

14. Broadband; the first medium whose fundamental value is collaboration Big data requires big pipes to enable real time collaboration

15. But we can see the bottlenecks ahead… “DNA Sequencing Caught in Deluge of Data” By Andrew Pollack, November 30, 2011 BGI, based in China, is the world’s largest genomics research institute, with 167 DNA sequencers producing the equivalent of 2,000 human genomes a day. BGI churns out so much data that it often cannot transmit its results to clients or collaborators over the Internet or other communications lines because that would take weeks. Instead, it sends computer disks containing the data, via FedEx.

16. What are barriers to it happening quickly? • Chicken and egg economics • In the United States, competitive economics • Everywhere, the wrong idea about government policy affecting the deployment of networks

17. Chicken and Egg Economics Need critical mass of big pipes to drive big apps to drive demand for big pipes, but until then, this math is a wall: C + O > (r)R + EB • C – Capital Expenditures • O– Operating Expenditures • r – Risk • R- Revenues • EB- Ecosystem Benefits (Benefits that drive increased revenues outside the communities where the new or incremental investments are made.)

18. Worse in United States C + O > (r)(.5)R + EB • R- Revenues for Underlying Infrastructure Spilt between Two Facilities, Creating Greater Risk for Long-Term Financing

19. Diffusion Lag and the problem of yesterday’s logic Diffusion of Innovations Sunk costs: costs of reengineering factories, industries. Organizations adopting Sunk thinking: imagined costs of reimagining prevailing logic. Time after introduction

20. Policy Problem: Winning the Past

21. How do we fundamentally view the public stake in communications networks and society? Connecting America High Performance Knowledge Exchange Message Simple Complex Politics Simple Complex Imperative Deployment Use Mechanism Provide subsidy Deliver high performance service Focus Equal network everywhere Right network for use case Population Beneficiary Rural All Network Beneficiary Wire line telephone Consumer / use determined Prime Purpose Lower prices in high cost areas Higher economic, social value

22. How would spending priorities for Universal Service change? Support for: Directional change as indicated by consumer behavior Actual change Wireline to rural homes Decrease Increase Wireless for rural communities Increase Decrease Institutional support for higher speed connectivity Increase No change Adoption Increase No change, though likely to decrease

23. “The danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence. It is to act with yesterday’s logic” • Peter F. Drucker

24. Solution: Change the Math C + O < (r)R + EB And how do we do that?

25. Background for Gig.U Lead to …

26. The University-Community Next Generation Innovation Project Over the spring and summer of 2011, 37 leading research universities, working in partnership with their local communities, formed Gig.U Our Mission • Accelerate the deployment of world-leading, next generation networks in the United States Our Purpose • Provide an opportunity to lead in the next generation of ultra-high speed network services and applications

27. Not News for Washington Post but… 所美国大学筹备各自建立1Gbps网络社区“GigU” Headline from Chinese Newspaper day after Gig.U launch

28. Not News for Washington Post but… 所美国大学筹备各自建立1Gbps网络社区“GigU” Headline from Chinese Newspaper day after Gig.U launch China Flexes Its FTTx Muscle China's massive buildout has ensured that the fiber center of gravity has swung to Asia/Pacific. By 2016, Ovum predicts, 50 percent of all wireline broadband subscribers in the region will be FTTx, compared with 16 percent in Europe and 14 percent in North America. Light Reading, December 5, 2011

29. University-communities: a strategic market opportunity Advantages of University-communities Demand for Bandwidth = Greatest Positive Impact of Network Access = Greatest Cost of Deployment = Least

30. State of Play of Networks in University Communities Opportunity: Create a Seamless Broadband Experience between the Campus and the Community

31. University-communities: Birthplace of Network Based Innovations

32. Economic clusters require access to abundant strategic inputs for success In 21st Century economy, we can lower barriers to innovation by increasing bandwidth.

33. Key: Increase understanding of need to bring bandwidth to where it fuels the most innovation. Positive Impact of Network Access = Greatest Clusters that depend on the ability to capture and send data and collaborate with non-local sources require greater bandwidth than others. Demand for Bandwidth = Greatest Cost of Deployment = Least

34. It Can Be Done But It Requires a Different Approach at the Local Level

35. Key to Changing the Math—Asymmetry

36. Implications: The benefits of world-leading networks

37. Use Case

38. Other Use Cases But we really have no idea……

39. International Efforts Other countries investing in Gigabit connectivity through policy driven actions . . . “Home Internet May Get Even Faster in South Korea” By Mark McDonald, February 21, 2011 “Cheap, Ultrafast Broadband? Hong Kong Has It” By Randall Stross, March 5, 2011 South Korea already claims the world’s fastest Internet connections — the fastest globally by far — but that is hardly good enough for the government here. By the end of 2012, South Korea intends to connect every home in the country to the Internet at one gigabit per second. That would be a tenfold increase from the already blazing national standard and more than 200 times as fast as the average household setup in the United States. Hong Kong residents can enjoy astoundingly fast broadband at an astoundingly low price. It became available last year, when a scrappy company called Hong Kong Broadband Network introduced a new option for its fiber-to-the-home service: a speed of 1,000 megabits a second--known as a “gig”-- for less than $26 a month. In the United States, we don’t have anything close to that. But we could. And we should. . . . Others with Gigabit networks include Japan, Sweden, Spain, Turkey

40. Other International Efforts England has different strategies to build faster broadband… “Osborne announces 10 ‘super connected cities” By Maijia Palmer, November 30, 2011 “London’s CityFibre to build a $800 million gigabit network” By Om Malik, November 3, 2011 The chancellor has pledged an additional £100m fund to help create 10 “super-connected” cities across the UK, which will have broadband speeds of 80 to 100 megabits a second…“It means creating new superfast digital networks for companies across our country. These do not exist today. See what countries like China or Brazil are building, and you’ll also see why we risk falling behind the rest of the world,” Mr Osborne said. When it comes to fiber-based broadband, the U.K. lags behind its European neighbors, which have been aggressive in rolling out really fast networks. Many critics blame British Telecom dragging its feet mostly because it doesn’t have any real competition.

41. Other United States Efforts Google • U.S. Ignite • Roll-0ut 1Q12 • http://us-ignite.org/ • Geographic Cluster Model • Service Offering, 2Q12

42. Research Facilities: Moving to 100 Gig Connections “National LambdaRail provides 100 Gigabit Connection for NOAA at Supercomputing 2011. Next Generation Research Capabilities Will Be Demonstrated Using Cisco Technology and NLR Transport Network” By Bizjounrals.com, November 7, 2011 “Research institute deploys 100 Gigabit Ethernet from core to closet” By Shamus McGillicuddy, November 28, 2011 To support its high-performance computing (HPC) requirements, a research institute built a new 100 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) backbone with Brocade.Researchers at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) in Chevy Chase, Md., generate large volumes of data imaging, which in many cases requires 10 GbE connections at the campus access layer, according to Spartaco Cicerchia, director of enterprise systems for HHMI. US Dept. of Energy awards cPacket Bizjournals.com - ‎Nov 7, 2011‎ The company plans to use the grant to develop a 100 gigabit per second scalable Network Intrusion Detection System to help protect data center, commercial organizations and government organizations, which are susceptible to security problems

43. What Happens Next With Gig.U? • Includes: • Local Governments • Universities • Utilities • MDU Owners • Anchor Institutions • R&E Networks

44. What is likely to happen? Like all great journeys, the level of optimism is greater than the quality of the map…..