Suicide Terrorism

1. Suicide Terrorism

2. Suicide Terrorism • The use of suicide terrorism as a tactic has changed the nature of terrorism and the war in Iraq. • In most cases, the use of suicide terrorism has tended to improve the success of terrorists and frustrated their more capable, better-resourced enemies (i.e., US, EU) • This analysis is based on Robert Pape’s article in the Aug. 2003 American Political Science Review (vol. 97, no. 3, 343-361)

3. Suicide Terrorism • Suicide terrorism was seldom used but not unknown before 1980 • The 1983 attack on the US Marine barracks in Lebanon was a spectacular early use of this tactic • Since that time its use has risen sharply

4. Suicide Terrorism Source: Jewish Virtual Library.org

5. Types of Suicide Terrorism • Suicide attack on foot, explosive belt -- numerous Iraq • Attempted suicide attack with a plane as target -- Richard Reid on American Airlines Flight 63 • Suicide car bomb -- numerous Iraq • Suicide attack by a boat with explosives -- USS Cole bombing • Suicide attack by a submarine with explosives (human-steered torpedo) -- Kaiten, used by Japan in WWII • Suicide attack by a plane with explosives -- kamikaze • Suicide attack by a hijacked plane with fuel -- 9/11 • Suicide attack by diverting a bus to an abyss -- Tel Aviv Jerusalem bus Massacre • Suicide attack with guns -- Kashmiri insurgents on the Indian Parliament in December 2001 killing 15 people.

6. Profile of Suicide Terrorists • The original descriptions of characteristics of suicide terrorists pointed to depressed, isolated, uneducated, embittered loners carrying out attacks, motivated by a sense of powerlessness • The rising numbers of suicide attacks has made this profile obsolete • Suicide terrorists may be young, middle class, well-educated, female • Religion seems to be a significant motivation in many cases, but not all (e.g., Tamil Tigers, Sri Lanka)

7. 5 Principles of Suicide Terrorism • Suicide terrorism is strategic -- Groups announce their goals and cease attacks when those goals are met • Designed to coerce modern democracies, usually over territorial claims -- Every suicide terrorist attack since 1980 has been directed against a democratic form of government • Suicide terrorism has been rising for the past 25 years because it is often partially successful -- Palestinian management/control: West Bank, Gaza -- Regional autonomy negotiations for Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka -- Limited toleration for Kurdish minority in Turkey

8. 5 Principles of Suicide Terrorism 4. More ambitious, large-scale attacks are unlikely to prove increasingly successful -- Large democratic states have little political incentive to concede when the stakes are very high -- public support 5. The most promising tactic for reducing suicide terrorism is by reducing the terrorists’ confidence in further success -- Border control, increased internal security -- Military action alone is unlikely to create this effect

9. Types of Terrorism • Terrorists have a choice of tactics to use depending on the desire effect • Demonstrative Terrorism • Used mainly to gain publicity, recruit activists • May announce their action in advance (bomb threat) • Destructive Terrorism • More aggressive, seeks to coerce enemies • Balance between effect of act and the potential to alienate potential sympathizers • Suicide Terrorism • Most aggressive • May alienate the terrorists’ own community

10. Types of Terrorism • Two factors related to the news media are crucial • Projection of an image of being unstoppable • Projection of an image of being very numerous • Suicide terrorism is an aspect of asymmetrical warfare, where the terrorist organization is weaker than their enemy • Their actions are a punishment for not acceding to previous demands • Fear is intensified by the credible threat of additional future attacks

11. Selected Suicide Terror Campaigns

12. Strategic Considerations • Target nation • Does the concession cost more than calculated probability and intensity of further attacks? • Terrorist group • Is the use of suicide terrorism likely to be more successful than the best alternative tactic? • Terrorist groups adjust their tactics as necessary • Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Tamil Tigers, al Qaeda all began their campaigns using guerilla methods • In Iraq -- kidnappings, beheadings, car bombings, IED, etc.

13. Strategic Considerations • Not all suicide terrorist campaigns are successful • Al Aqsa intifada did not result in complete transfer of authority in the West Bank • Tamil Tigers do not have their own state • Even when demands are met (US out of Arabian Peninsula) the results are not especially damaging to the terrorists’ enemies • This may reflect poor strategic choices more than a limitation of the strategy employed • Terrorist organizations usually make limited demands

14. Strategic Considerations • Possible policy implications • Concessions do not work -- usually embolden the terrorists to increase their demands • Military action does not work, at least in completely stopping suicide attacks • Combinations of tactics seem called for • Diplomatic isolation, disrupting sources of funding, strong military response as needed, strong border security • Targeted military operations (assassinations, attacking training/logistics sites) seem effective

15. Strategic Considerations • Demonstrated Resolve as a counter-terror tactic • The struggle against Islamic terrorism is a struggle of will • Democratic processes, open societies allow for open debate, variety of positions • Suicide terrorists use this openness against targets -- democracy is therefore the fundamental variable • How can democracy square with counter-terrorism? • Debates about approaches must always be within the context of prevailing • Strong political leadership in dealing with the emotional factors • Strong rhetorical leadership from top civilian, military leaders