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Wind in the UK – a growing market

Wind in the UK – a growing market. Dr Gordon Edge Director of Policy RenewableUK. A word on who we are…. Wind starting to deliver. 2004: 250MW 2005: 440MW 2006: 630MW 2007: 430MW 2008: 867MW 2009: 1,077MW. Operational wind farms. Ttt H. Ttt H H H H H H H H L K. 4,491MW

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Wind in the UK – a growing market

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  1. Wind in the UK – a growing market Dr Gordon Edge Director of Policy RenewableUK

  2. A word on who we are…

  3. Wind starting to deliver 2004: 250MW 2005: 440MW 2006: 630MW 2007: 430MW2008: 867MW2009: 1,077MW

  4. Operational wind farms Ttt H Ttt H H H H H H H H L K • 4,491MW • 3,450MW onshore • 1,041MW offshore • 2,872 turbines

  5. Wind farms under construction H • 1,656MW • 537MW onshore • 1,119MW offshore • 614 turbines H H H H H

  6. Wind farms consented • Considerable capacity consented but yet to start construction • 4,357MW onshore wind • 3,127MW offshore wind • 13,600MW in total built, building or ready to build

  7. The onshore planning logjam • ~8,000MW of onshore capacity is built, building or ready to build • However, nearly 20,000MW has entered the planning system since 2002 • ~2,500MW rejected • 7,700MW being held up in planning • Aviation issues a key problem

  8. Moving ahead onshore • Projects consented may still have barriers to delivery • Planning conditions may need to be discharged • Grid connections may still be awaited • Finance may not be in place • Nonetheless, we anticipate delivery of ~1GW/year for the next five years • 2010 may see a dip in onshore delivery over 2009, mostly due to finance issues

  9. 32 GW The UK has a healthy offshore pipeline 47GW of leases in total… 20,000 Round 3 …But when are they delivered? Wind Farm Capacity (MW) 10.000 STW 6.4 GW Extensions ~ 1 – 2 GW 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Installed Under Construction/ Contracted Consented Planned

  10. Near term delivery quite clear Source: UK Offshore Wind: Staying on Track, report by Garrad Hassan for BWEA, June 2009

  11. Possible offshore delivery post-2015 Crown Estate 20% attrition, some projects delayed by 1 year 30% attrition, most projects delayed by 2 years • Installed in 2020: • High: 45GW; Medium: 24GW; Low: 14GW

  12. Some uncertainties • The Election • Unclear what effect a change of Government might have • May be changes in support mechanism, planning • Implementation of ‘Connect & Manage’ • Implications for connection, particularly in Scotland • Implementation of the OFTO regime • Affects offshore projects particularly around 2013-16 • Charging for transmission services • Potential move to per MWh charges instead of per kW per year

  13. So… • Despite some uncertainty, the UK is moving to a market of: • ~1GW/year onshore, 2010-20 • ~1GW/year offshore, 2010-15 • ~3-4GW/year offshore, 2015-20

  14. Let’s get to work!

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