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Chapter 6 Population Growth

Chapter 6 Population Growth. 生態學的分科： 以生物組織水準來分. 個體生態學 Autecology 種群（族群）生態學 Population ecology 群體（群落）生態學 Synecology: community ecology 生態系統生態學 Ecosystem ecology. Outline. Tabulating changes in population age structure through time Time-specific life tables Age-specific life tables.

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Chapter 6 Population Growth

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  1. Chapter 6Population Growth

  2. 生態學的分科：以生物組織水準來分 • 個體生態學Autecology • 種群（族群）生態學Population ecology • 群體（群落）生態學Synecology: community ecology • 生態系統生態學Ecosystem ecology

  3. Outline • Tabulating changes in population age structure through time • Time-specific life tables • Age-specific life tables

  4. Outline • Fecundity schedules and female fecundity, and estimating future population growth • Population growth models • Deterministic models • Geometric models

  5. Outline • Population growth models (cont.). • Logistic models • Stochastic models

  6. Demography and Population Growth Demography 族群統計學、人口統計學 The quantitative description of a population Population 族群 A group of conspecifics inhabits a specific place at a specific time. . The demographic and genetic populations are not necessarily the same. . Demographic distinction and genetic difference are not necessarily corresponding.

  7. Demography and Population Growth . Population characteristics . Quantitative parameters . Population difference: density, age distribution . Population growth and quantitative methods . Population determination factors . Offspring production and energy invest . Population genetics variation . Intrapopulation behavior

  8. Population density 族群密度 . abundant 豐富的 . common 普遍 . rare 稀有 . endangered 瀕危(絕)的 . extinct 絕滅的 eg. Zacco pachycephalus粗首獵 (溪哥) endemic to Taiwan, but common in west coasts

  9. Sampling methods: . Traps 陷阱 . Fecal pellets 糞便 . Vacuolization frequencies 鳴叫頻度 . pelt records 生皮記錄 . Catch per unit effort (CPUE) 單位努力漁獲量 . Percentage ground cover 遮蔽度 . Frequency of abundance along transects or in quadrants of known area. 穿越線或四分區豐度。 . Feeding damage 食害程度。 . Roadside spotting in a standard distance 單位長度內視察的記錄。

  10. Estimates of absolute density-1 . Proportion of population marked = (no. of animals marked at t1) / (total no, of animals in population) . Proportion of sample marked = (no. of marked animals captured at t2) / (total no. of animals captured at t2)

  11. Estimates of absolute density-2 If random sampling,  Proportion of population marked = proportion of sample marked t1標示個體/族群數量 ﹦t2再捕獲標示個體數/t2捕獲數 （已知數）（未知數） （已知數） （已知數） Assumptions: 1.標記不會對於個體有增加死亡率的危險 2.標記不會影響再捕捉的機率（記憶與學習） 3.實驗期間族群內個體沒有移入或移出的問題 4.實驗期間沒有死亡或新生的變化

  12. 櫻花鉤吻鮭

  13. Chapt. 06 Salmon Watch—Skin Diving

  14. Chapt. 06 Salmon Watch — Skin Diving and Counting

  15. 歷年最高 數量 3428尾 七家灣溪流域櫻花鉤吻鮭歷年族群變化圖 2000秋繁殖季節 遭逢象神颱風 1994年以來 最低族群數量 346尾 重大天災以紅色圖說標於圖中

  16. 頭前溪毛蟹

  17. Dispersion分散情形 . random distribution: 闊葉林中的樹 . aggregated: 草地上的韓國薊 . hyperdispersed, regular in dispersion: 繁殖區的海鳥

  18. 雪山冷杉林

  19. Statistical methods:-1 . Poisson distribution Px=axe-a/x! P = Poisson probability x = No. of occurrences a = The mean number of occurrences e = The base of the natural log

  20. 蘭嶼熱帶森林

  21. Statistical methods:-2 方差/平均數比率指標 If s2/x(mean / variance) > 1  hyperdispersion If s2/x(mean / variance) < 1  aggregation Significant test  (n-1)s2/x x : mean S2 : variance

  22. Life Tables 壽命表 是一種記載和描述出生後的一定數量的個體，隨著生命過程而損失，減少的規律的一種方法，是描述種群的死亡與存活過程的一種有效手段。

  23. Life Tables 壽命表 1. age specific (cohort analysis) 群對分析,年齡群特性。 Short-lived animal： 2. time-specific (static)靜態分析,時間特性。 long-lived animals.

  24. age-specific life table 特定年齡壽命表 =dynamic life table =horizontal life table 以一特定世代群體的命運為根據，跟蹤該世的整個生活史，每隔一定時間統計存活數與死亡數。  .優點 .可反映出與密度相關的死亡率與繁殖率變化。 .分析種群數量變動與調節的機制。  缺點 .不易掌握全世代的生物資料。

  25. Time specific life table 特定時間壽命表 =Stationary or Vertical life table 由不同年齡組組成的群體及估算的各年齡組的死亡率為根據。 優點 .可在短時間內獲得所需資料 缺點 .不同世代會有不同歷史背景 .推理不易來自隨機的取樣 .種群結構不易穩定

  26. Composite life table 綜合壽命表 取不同來源的資料平均值作壽命表 (B) birth 種群大小 death (D)   dn=B-D Net reproductive rate: Ro Ro = lx mx ln = surviving proportion mx = age-specific fertility

  27. 四種族群年齡結構的組成圖

  28. 已開發和開發中國家在1995～2025年之間的年齡結構已開發和開發中國家在1995～2025年之間的年齡結構

  29. 三種不同的存活曲線模型

  30. Type I 1000 Many birds, small mammals, lizards, turtles Many mammals 100 x Type II Number of survivors (n ) (log scale) 10 Many invertebrates 1 Type III 0.1 Age

  31. Deterministic Models 宿命論模式 Discrete Generations不連續世代 Geometric Carrying Capacity logistic k-n 尚未利用於種群增長的潛力

  32. Stochastic Models 推計學模式 Discrete Generation Overlapping Generations

  33. 細菌的對數生長

  34. 海豹族群的成長模式

  35. 族群成長率與族群數量增加之間的關係

  36. 邏輯模型所預測的族群成長情形

  37. 指數成長和對數成長的比較

  38. Life Tables • Date on numbers of individuals at each age • Construct life tables • Demonstrate the age structure of a population • Life table construction – demography

  39. Life Tables • Life table construction – demography (cont.). • How a population will grow • Construction of data • Follow a cohort from births to deaths (age specific life table)

  40. Life Tables • Time-specific life table • Snapshot – age structure at a single point in time (time-specific life table) • Useful in examining long-lived animals • Ex. Dall Mountain Sheep (Figure 6.1 and Table 6.1)

  41. 3.5 3 2.5 2 10 n (log scale) 1.5 x 1 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Age (years)

  42. Life Tables • Useful parameters in the life tables (Deevey 1947) • x = age class or interval • nx = number of survivors at beginning of age interval x. • dx = number of organisms dying between age intervals = nx – nx=1 • lx = proportion of organisms surviving to the beginning of age interval x = ns / n0

  43. Life Tables • Useful parameters in the life tables (Deevey 1947) (cont.). • qx = rate of mortality between age intervals = dx / ns • ex = the mean expectation of life for organisms alive at the beginning of age x • Lx = average number alive during an age class = (ns+ ns+1) / 2 • Tx = intermediate step in determining life expectancy = SLx

  44. Life Tables • ex = the mean expectation of life for organisms alive (cont.). • Ex = Tx / nx • Assumptions that limit the accuracy of time-specific life tables • Equal number of offspring are born each year • Favorable climate for breeding? • A need for an independent method for estimating birth rates of each age class

  45. Life Tables • Assumptions that limit the accuracy of time-specific life tables (cont.). • As a result, age-specific life tables are typically reported • Age-specific life tables • Needed for short-lived organisms • Time-specific life tables biased toward the stage common at the moment

  46. Life Tables • Follows one cohort or generation • Population censuses must be frequent and conducted over a limited time • Ex. Table 6.2 and Figure 6.3

  47. 3.5 3 2.5 2 n (log scale) 1.5 x 1 0.5 0 1 4 2 3 5 6 7 Age (years)

  48. Life Tables • General types of survivorship curves (Figure 6.4) • Type I • Most individuals are lost when they are older • Vertebrates or organisms that exhibit parental care and protect their young • Small dip at young age due to predators

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