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Identification of Potentially Valuable Flexibilities -- Intro

Identification of Potentially Valuable Flexibilities -- Intro. Introduce Methods for identifying potentially valuable sources of flexibility More detailed presentation at end of course The Issue: Interesting Systems easily have 10s of 1000s possible combinations

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Identification of Potentially Valuable Flexibilities -- Intro

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  1. Identification of PotentiallyValuable Flexibilities -- Intro • Introduce Methods for identifying potentially valuable sources of flexibility • More detailed presentation at end of course • The Issue: • Interesting Systems easily have 10s of 1000s possible combinations • 10s of major elements; each with several sizes or configurations, with several possible phases • Elements exp(sizes or shapes) exp(phases) • Which to choose?

  2. 2 Fundamental Ways To Approach Issue • Both work with system experts • … Differ in how the methods work with them • Either: to elicit their suggestions directly • Or: to describe system, and then use this to determine likely possibilities “Direct Assessment” “Indirect Assessment”

  3. Direct Assessment • Simple Version: Ask designers for ideas • What we did for Gulf of Mexico analysis • Effective – if designers are responsive • Limited –important opportunities may be hidden • Advanced Version: Interactive collaboration structured to search for, reveal opportunities • Lin dissertation work with BP (later presentation) • Effective – for BP found unsuspected, valuable opportunities • Time Consuming – BP case, about a year

  4. Indirect Assessment • The common approach uses some form of “Design Structure Matrix” (DSM) • DSM is a Square matrix of all important elements of system in rows and columns • … showing various forms of linkages • … comes in different versions • Existence (0 or 1 or check as entry) • Causality (which affects what) • Intensity…

  5. Indirect Assessment: 3 Examples • Wilds (SM Thesis in Aero and ESD, 2008) • Based upon standard DSM • Estimates detailed impact of change in one parameter over series of components • Kalligeros (PhD Dissertation ESD, 2006) • Sensitivity – DSM (SDSM) • Bartolomei (PhD Dissertation, ESC, 2007) • Engineering System Matrix (ESM)

  6. Kalligeros S-DSM • In brief • Develops DSM • Interviews Designers to determine sensitivities of components to changes • Fades out insignificant items (Think of zooming out on Mapquest and losing detail) • Matrix operations to reorder rows and columns into blocks • Places where these blocks overlap indicate “Hot Spots” , design elements where Flexibility is desirable

  7. Kalligeros S-DSMAssessment of Sensitivities

  8. Kalligeros S-DSMAfter Matrix Operations

  9. Bartolomei -- ESM • In Brief • Expands DSM concept beyond mechanical, technical components • Includes stakeholders in Engineering System: -- decision-makers, users, those impacted by system • Uses sophisticated Social Science methods to elicit validated assessment of matrix entries • Hopes to determine “hot spots” more generally (method not specified)

  10. Implications of ESM • Interesting Opportunities for Flexibility may exist outside of physical (DSM) system • Example: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) • Originally developed by US military for with requirement for photographic surveillance • Requirements changed by military: • Longer “dwell time”, new payloads • … also by others stakeholders – fire service • different altitudes, sensors…

  11. Bartolomei ESMIllustration of Concept

  12. Bartolomei ESMDesired Outcomes of Process

  13. Summary of Introduction Methods of Identifying Flexibilities • At this point: • Indirect Assessments popular in research • But: Not operational for practical • Direct Assessments more practical • But: No systematic way to implement • Fuller Presentation at end of Semester

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