What we need in Cancun A Balanced, Ambitious & Achievable Cancun Package

1. What we need in Cancun A Balanced, Ambitious & Achievable Cancun Package For further information contact: Mohamed Adow Senior Advisor – Global Advocacy and Alliances Christian Aid MAdow@christian-aid.org

2. Political Landscape • Copenhagen ‘failure’ • largely portrayed in the media as a failure. • Most world leaders have indicated they were unhappy with the outcome. • The public were disappointed. • Variously in the media the blame has fallen on the US, China and the UN process. • A clear way forward has yet to be agreed • we need to learn lessons from past failure & identify why Mexico can end successfully, when Copenhagen didn’t • we can’t afford another flop in Mexico

3. Political Landscape • United States • election of US President Barack Obama raised hopes and expectations • Many disappointed by Obama at Copenhagen, and called into doubt Obama’s commitment to multilateralism. • US’s role and place in the world is changing • still a dominant superpower but rise of China and other ‘emerging economies’ is changing this. • some believe same level of ‘exceptionalism’ in international relations not appropriate • new political reality hasn’t hit home yet among decision makers or the general public • the international popularity (now waning) of President Obama provided many developed country governments cover to use the US as an excuse for their own low levels of ambition. • US domestic situation not looking good • domestic law not looking likely this year • most optimistic scenario sees US emissions reduce by 4% below 1990 levels (17% below 2005) • Bill may include welcome international finance, but likely to be less than US’s fair share • fall back plan is for US Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to regulate emissions • under attack from Republicans, and some Democrats & is likely to generate lawsuits from industry • No international climate finance generated via this route • US won’t sign an international agreement that won’t be adopted domestically

4. Political Landscape • China • China is struggling with being the number one overall greenhouse polluter (in per capita ranking number 50) • by many estimates the Chinese commitment to reduce emissions intensity by 40-45% from 2005 levels by 2020 is a strong pledge • Premier Wen Jiabao received much criticism in the media for his role at Copenhagen • for sending a bureaucrat to meet with Heads of State • for blocking agreement on numbers/targets. • Chinese Government felt snubbed by CPH process and by Obama • negative media post Copenhagen shocked Chinese Government • media coverage had a negative effect on public opinion and civil society in China, causing a backlash against action on climate change. Chart = pledged reduction effort for the year 2020 in GtCO2, measured for each country with respect to an anticipated BAU emissions path. Source: Greenhouse Development Rights Project

5. Political Landscape • Vulnerable Countries • The countries most vulnerable to climate change make a strong moral case to the public • AOSIS, LDCs and the Africa Group were all active and vocal in the lead up to, and at Copenhagen. • In the lead up to Copenhagen there was coordination across AOSIS, LDCs and the Africa Group, including when the vulnerable countries briefly staged a walk out from the talks. • Vulnerable countries were in full campaign mode in lead up to Copenhagen.

6. Bridging the divide • Between climate justice (what needs to happen) and political ‘pragmatism’ in the North • The climate justice movement continues to demand a FAB deal • Wealthy nations moving towards a deal which they view as politically pragmatic for their own domestic political perspective • Its riddled with a number of ‘loop-holes’ and get out clauses to limit the action needed to be taken by wealthy nations • Some countries are using the negotiating process to delay progress towards a binding deal by expanding texts and delaying process • Many countries are lowering expectations • This means a low ambition ‘pledge and review’ approach which they believe should be delivered thro the carbon markets and private sector • Need to build trust within Parties • Another perceived COP failure could lead to a ‘flight from UNFCCC’. • Some have FAB deal expectations for Cancun • Africa, AOSIS, LDCs?

7. Barriers to FAB deal at COP16 sharp divisions on the legal form issue; lack of a shared vision as to the ultimate objective of the agreement, and the equitable allocation of emissions reduction/limitation commitments; Failure of the US Senate to pass comprehensive legislation this year, and the resulting unwillingness to commit to a FAB deal; current economic difficulties facing most developed countries, which makes it difficult to mobilize the substantial commitments to long-term climate finance needed as part of any FAB deal ( or at least this is a convenient reason to give for lack of action)

8. Political Landscape • Changing international dynamics • climate change is now in the pot with a range of issues that it can be ‘traded off’ against. eg: trade talks, protectionist debate between US and China, the Millennium Development Goals, aid budgets, disarmament etc. • There are emerging clashes of culture within international diplomacy. • G8, and its relative cultural homogeneity, is declining • G20, with far greater cultural, political and economic diversity, is rising. • BASICs and other rising stars are getting used to being part of this ‘club’, • the old guard are struggling to come to terms with the new power dynamics.

9. UNFCCC as main game Essential to maintain the UNFCCC as focus of international climate negotiations towards a fair, ambitious and binding post-2012 deal Alternative is subsets of countries pursuing less ambitious and less equitable agreements in other fora. With less representation of vulnerable countries.

10. If a full FAB deal is unlikely in Cancun, the “nothing’s agreed until everything’s agreed” dynamic would mean that nothing would be agreed. • Need to replace this with a “nothing’s agreed until enough is agreed” dynamic • crucial to agree an achievable yet ambitious package of decisions in Cancun to: • maintain the credibility and momentum of the UNFCCC • move substantially in the direction of a full FAB deal. • need a realistic, ambitious and balanced package (incl mandate) on table ASAP to avoid low levels of ambition being entrenched in lead up to Cancun

11. COP16 balanced, ambitious & achievable package • COP 16 Decisions: • Finance • adaptation • REDD+ • Technology • Capacity building • mitigation • MRV COP 17 Fair, Ambitious & Binding Deal Mandate

12. Solutions for Cancun • Actions which can build trust • Delivery of fast start finance (in a transparent manner) • Real movement towards delivery of long term finance • Moving to a workable text for moving the negotiations forwards • EU taking the lead on raising emissions cuts targets and promoting KP 2nd commitment period • A science based aggregate target and closing of the loop-holes • Moving beyond the US politics – rich countries coming with real offers to move negotiations forwards not just demands from developing countries • Need a realistic, ambitious and balanced package (incl mandate) on table ASAP to avoid low levels of ambition being entrenched in lead up to Cancun

13. Finance At Cancun: • Establish a new climate fund under the authority of the COP • Establish a Finance Board to: • Oversee the new climate fund and other operating entities of the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC • Carry out disbursements in a balanced manner • Develop and enforce robust standards and safeguards • Ensure compliance • Maintain a registry and conduct MRV

14. Finance At Cancun: • Sources: • Review the Advisory Group on Finance (AGF) recommendations, establish a mandate for AGF to continue under the authority of the COP, • Agree a road map for operationalizing sources of climate finance, with significant elements complete by COP17. • Scale • As a minimum adopt the Copenhagen Accord scale of finances, and a review process to determine their adequacy in light of available research that shows that $200bn per year is required

15. Finance: MRV At Cancun: • Adopt measurement, reporting and verification rules under the UNFCCC for both fast start and long term funding • Agree to include annual ‘climate financial inventories’ as part of the national communication process • Establish a registry for climate finance support

16. Adaptation Framework Agreement on good principles, including recognition of particularly vulnerable groups Linking plans, implementation, institutions and finance – need detail agreed to ensure support to develop and implement comprehensive adaptation strategies Institutional arrangements (establishment of an Adaptation Committee) Establish an insurance mechanism Mandate to explore loss and damage (compensation) Fast start program on adaptation technology response measures out of adaptation text & goes to mitigation

17. Mitigation: Developed Developed countries acknowledge there is a significant gigatonne gap between their current pledges and what science demands Developed country parties commit to an aggregate reduction of more than 40% below 1990 by 2020 at Cancun At Cancun parties agree a mandate to negotiate legally binding emission reduction targets reflecting comparable effort in a fair and equitable manner by COP 17 At Cancun agree on guidelines for each country to produce a Zero Carbon Action Plan (ZCAP), outlining long term trajectory through to 2050 and agree they will be completed by 2012.

18. Mitigation: Developed • Establish robust rules to minimise loopholes at COP16 • LULUCF: • LULUCF rules should strengthen the level of ambition of developed countries • LULUCF rules should protect and enhance sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases • Developed countries must account for any increases in emissions • A LULUCF safeguard must be in place to protect natural ecosystems • Agree market mechanism rules to avoid double counting & ensure environmental integrity • Agree rules to minimise hot air / surplus AAUS in the second commitment period

19. Mitigation: Developed • MRV • Enhanced and more frequent national communications, with consistent rules and methodologies, including for MRV of mitigation and finance • Expert review teams who can provide ‘early warning’ if countries not on track to meet target • Enhanced compliance • At least as strong as KP, if not strengthened.

20. 1.5 and Adequacy Review • Cancun COP Decision: • Schedule consideration of the latest scientific findings with regard to mitigation pathways and impacts • Ensure the provision of a review of the global goal towards a 1.5°C global goal by 2015 latest • Mechanism for linking assessment to adjustment of commitments • with an emphasis on what developed countries can do to provide the leadership required in the BAP and Convention, for mitigation and support

21. Priorities for COP 16 • Parties must honour the Bali Roadmap and maintain the Kyoto Protocol as the foundation of the global climate regime. • Parties must agree to adopt a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol at Cancun. • Parties must fulfil their legal obligation to adopt an amendment to Annex B of the Kyoto Protocolunder the AWG-KP. • Parties must take concrete steps to strengthen the implementation of the UNFCCC through sets of decisions under the LCA track. • Parties must agree to adopt a set of COP decisions for the AWG-LCA track at Cancun