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BASIC forecasting techniques:

BASIC forecasting techniques:. Persistence Modified Persistence Extrapolation Trend Association/ Analogous Methods Answers the million dollar question: “ …. what upstream location …?”. Analogous Thickness Methods. Temperature forecasts Find upstream location where air mass is coming from

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BASIC forecasting techniques:

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  1. BASIC forecasting techniques: • Persistence • Modified Persistence • Extrapolation • Trend • Association/ Analogous Methods • Answers the million dollar question: “ …. what upstream location …?”

  2. Analogous Thickness Methods • Temperature forecasts • Find upstream location where air mass is coming from • Use slp and thickness to approximate upstream location (note features too!) • For daytime max: • Compare 00z to 00z, or 18z to 18z • For nighttime min: • Compare 12z to 12z

  3. Temperature Forecasting:Analogous Thickness 00z Sunday: 9/2 (36 hour fcst) 00z Saturday: 9/1 (12 hour fcst)

  4. Analogous Thickness • Dew Point Forecasting • Find upstream location where air mass is coming from • Use slp and thickness to approximate upstream location (note features too!)

  5. Case Example: MDT SEPTEMBER 4th MDT’s Dew Point 18z on Sept. 4th? 70F MDT’s Dew Point at 18z On Sept. 5th?

  6. MDT: Analogous Thickness MDT’s Thickness on the 5th? 569dm MDT’s SLP on the 5th? 1019mb MDT’s location Relative to Fronts, Highs or lows?

  7. MDT DEW: Analogous Thickness Thickness? 569dm SLP? 1019mb MDT’s location Relative to Fronts, Highs or lows?

  8. Case Example: MDT SEPTEMBER 4 Analogous Dew Point? 53-57F

  9. Case Example: MDT Ladies and gentlemen the MDT DEW is …………

  10. Analogous Thickness • Caveats • Not all locations with = thick/slp values are the “analogous” site • cyclogenesis, anticylcgenisis • Consider air mass modification/local effects • Snow cover • Wind off large body of water • Analogous site should be of similar altitude • Errors can occur near strong fronts

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