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Analyzing Grindrod's 2005 interim results and its sustainable outlook for dry bulk and product tanker shipping rates. Details on fleet cost, cyclical earnings, and non-shipping expansion strategies.
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2005 Interim Results August 2005
Agenda Interim Results Sustainability
Trading Profit (Rm) Headline Earnings Per Share (cents) 694 +107% 618 +146% 504 +63% 444 +73% 335 309 +92% Full year 256 +156% 251 161 100 Interim 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 Interim Results
Interim Results Analysis of earnings for 6 months to June 2005
Current value per share • Book NAV • Excess of MV over BV of ships • Value of charters • Value of options • Unrecognised value of other businesses R 13 9 18 7 7 54 Interim Results Mark to Market valuation of assets • Assumptions • Used PV of long term charter rates on remaining open charter periods to value charters • Used current MV of owned fleet to obtain excess fleet value • Forecast MV at end of charters used to value options • Unrecognised value of other businesses at estimated MV
Interim Results Capital Expenditure during interim period
Agenda Interim Results Sustainability
Sustainability Baltic Indices BCI BPI BHMI
Sustainability The outlook for dry bulk shipping rates 2005 • Bearish during Q2, normalising in later part of Q3 and Q4 • Chinese production output key to iron ore imports • Coking coal continues to grow, Steam coal growth to meet power generation needs, increase with industrialisation and urbanisation • 2006 • Key driver remains Chinese steel demand • Continued long term demand growth • Low growth in developed world economies; moderate growth in developing world economies • 2007& beyond • Consistent long-term demand in base commodities • Ageing fleet profile • Scrappings to increase with “softer” freight rates • Add. shipyard capacity expansions to be on-stream 2010 and beyond • Marginal demand to be higher than marginal supply • Possible boom in 2009 Source: Clarksons
Sustainability The outlook for product tanker shipping rates Key trends in product market are favourable for strong tanker market • New supply of tankers is known and fixed in the short-run • Increased demand for refined products in major countries of India, China and United States • Refining capacity in the US and Europe is essentially at capacity, new refining capacity in the Arabian Gulf that will meet this demand will require long distance transportation • New restrictions - single hull phase out by 2010 Source: Poten & Partners
Shipping Locking in shipping income Low fleet cost Expanding fleet Sustainability How the new Grindrod addresses sustainability of earnings,given the cyclical nature of Shipping
Sustainability Shipping : Locking in shipping income
Sustainability Shipping : Low fleet cost • Owned Fleet (38% of total Grindrod fleet) eg Product Tankers - BV R1,043m - MV R1,671m • Chartered Fleet (62% of total Grindrod fleet) eg Handysize Bulk Carriers - 7 year charter rate payable $ 7,500 pd - current 7 year charter rate $11,500 pd eg Capesize Bulk Carriers - 3 year charter rate payable $15,000 pd - current 3 year charter rate $26,000 pd eg Panamax Bulk Carriers - 5 year charter rate payable $ 9,250 pd - current 5 year charter rate $16,000 pd
US$ eg LB / IVS Handysize Bulkcarrier Pool earnings vs market 30,000 25,000 LB/IVS Pool Earnings 20,000 15,000 MarketEarnings 10,000 5,000 0 Jul03 Jul04 Jul05 Jan03 Jan04 Jan05 Mar03 Mar04 Mar05 Sep03 Sep04 Nov03 Nov04 May03 May04 May05 Sustainability Shipping : Low fleet cost - Ability to Beat the Index
Sustainability Shipping : Expanding fleet
Handysize - Parcel Service Capesize / Panamax Handysize - ITAS vessels Handysize - LB / IVS Pool Products / Chemical tankers Container ships Sustainability Shipping : Expanding fleet - Global position Total fleet = 88 ships 18 Owned 30 Chartered (long-term) 40 Chartered (short-term)
Non-shipping expansion Logistics Bulk product trading Terminals / Rail Sustainability How the new Grindrod addresses sustainability of earnings,given the cyclical nature of Shipping Shipping Locking in shipping income Low fleet cost Expanding fleet
Sustainability Non-shipping expansion: Diversification of earnings stream • Shipping currently contributes 90% of Operating Profit • Objective: To be reduced to 67% by 2008 • Why can Grindrod successfully expand its non-shipping operations in the face of fierce competition? • Existing skills base and additional skills acquired • Partnerships with industry experts • Complementary to shipping • Cross marketing of customer base
Sustainability 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Non-shipping expansion: Good Products / Services / Customers / Partners Sheltam Atlas Sea Munye
Ships Agency API Ocean Africa Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers Ships Agency Rohlig-Grindrod API Ocean Africa Unicorn Shipping IVS Southern Tankers Ships Agency Auto Carriers Boltt Grindrod CMC Grindrod Grindrod PCA Grindrod J&J Picpack Grindrod Rohlig-Grindrod Sheltam Oreport WALVISBAY JOHANNESBURG MAPUTO Ships Agency Kusasa BT Kusasa Logistics Sea Munye Navitrade Rohlig-Grindrod Star Biomass Ocean Africa Sheltam IVS RICHARDS BAY Ships Agency Auto Carriers Grindrod J&J Rohlig-Grindrod Ocean Africa Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers Ships Agency CMC Grindrod Grindrod J&J Rohlig-Grindrod Ocean Africa Sheltam Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers Ships Agency Auto Carriers Boltt Grindrod CMC Grindrod Grindrod PCA Grindrod J&J Picpack Grindrod Rohlig-Grindrod Ocean Africa Sheltam IVS Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers Ships Agency Auto Carriers Boltt Grindrod CMC Grindrod Grindrod PCA Grindrod J&J Picpack Grindrod Rohlig-Grindrod Ocean Africa Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers Cockett Marine DURBAN EASTLONDON CAPETOWN PORTELIZABETH Sustainability Non-shipping expansion: Southern Africa coverage
Shipping Non-shipping expansion Locking in shipping income Logistics Low fleet cost Bulk product trading Expanding fleet Terminals / Rail Sustainability Other strategic initiatives Other strategic initiatives Pref share issue Share split International listing
Sustainability Other strategic initiatives : Preference share issue • Preference shares will not dilute HEPS, as Grindrod’s target ROE > cost of servicing the preference shares • Have good income base to ensure preference share serviceability • R500m raised from preference share issue to be spent on: • Growing rail operations • Public / Private partnerships • Further non-shipping expansion / possible major acquisitions • Shipping opportunities in low markets
Sustainability Other strategic initiatives : Share split Improve marketability / liquidity Widen shareholder base More accessible to new shareholders Subject to shareholder approval
Sustainability Other strategic initiatives : International listing Being investigated Will proceed if beneficial to shareholders Comparable listed shipping company PE ratios = +- 7 Share prices of listed shipping companies generally trade at a premium to NAV
Sustainability Critical success factors and an example of what can be achieved • Ensure high level of contracted / annuity income – R400m • Contracted shipping income • Tanker earnings - more stable market • Freight and Financial services • New investments - Power of Compound – R250m • Utilisation of cash from operations • Utilisation of cash from preference share issue • Target Debt / Equity = 80% • Target ROE = 20% • Profits from Bulk Product Trading – R100m • Good management of shipping in lower markets – R150m • Mainly Handysize bulk carriers in more volatile market
Sustainability Possible Balance Sheet if targets met