Base, on average, almost precisely modeled actual outcome

1. “Consider it Advisable to Launch Attack Force Immediately”[i]:A What if? Investigation and Analysis of the Battle of Midway [i] Rear Admiral Tamon Yamaguchi, IJN, as quoted by Mitsuo Fuchida and Masatake Okumiya in Midway: The Battle that Doomed Japan (Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1955), 170.

4. Base, on average, almost precisely modeled actual outcome

6. CV-5 SBD (1000lb) Min Max StDev Avg Base Model Min Max StDev Avg Strike 1 Min Max StDev Avg Strike 2

7. CV-5 TBD Min Max StDev Avg Base Model Min Max StDev Avg Strike 1 Min Max StDev Avg Strike 2

8. TF16 F4F (FP) Min Max StDev Avg Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg

9. American Carriers Min Max StDev Avg Strike 1 Strike 2 Min Max StDev Avg

10. Japanese Carriers Min Max StDev Avg Base Model Min Max StDev Avg Strike 1 Min Max StDev Avg Strike 2

11. Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (low)

12. Relation between Japanese Carrier dead and Japanese CAP/FP dead (high)

13. Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (High)

14. Relation between American Fighter Aircraft Dead and Japanese Carrier Dead (Low)

15. -Weather -Personality Conflicts (Fletcher & Spruance) -Radio Transmission Range -Lt. Tomonaga’s death -VT-3’s tardiness -Japanese carrier decks devoid of aircraft -Willingness of American pilots to face almost certain death -Ability of VF-6’s pilots (Thatch weave) -USS Yorktown’s late launch schedule -etc., etc., etc... Endless number of WHAT IFs?