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SPoRT Ongoing Modeling Projects

SPoRT Ongoing Modeling Projects. Science Advisory Committee Meeting 13 June 2007. Extension of R&A to Applications Partnership with NWS/MIA. Direct Outcome of the Joint NAS SOO/SPoRT Workshop.

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SPoRT Ongoing Modeling Projects

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  1. SPoRT Ongoing Modeling Projects Science Advisory Committee Meeting 13 June 2007

  2. Extension of R&A to Applications Partnership with NWS/MIA Direct Outcome of the Joint NAS SOO/SPoRT Workshop SPoRT and Pablo Santos (SOO/MIA) developed a plan to evaluate and then transition the MODIS SST composites within WRF for use in Miami’s operational forecasts

  3. Skin Temperature (incl. MODIS SSTs) Methodology for MIA Modeling • Project designed to optimize and share computational resources—a direct outcome of the 2006 workshop • 27 h WRF-NMM simulations have been run four times daily since February 2007 • 4 km resolution; 31 vertical levels • MIA uses LAPS for initialization • SPoRT parallel runs use the 2 km MODIS SST composites, while Miami’s forecasts use the 1/12° RTG SST analyses • 27 h forecast initialized daily at 03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC.

  4. Future Plans • Determine the impact of MODIS SSTs (research perspective) • Verify forecasts against surface and precipitation observations • Perform comparison of forecasts similar to May 2004 study period to show general impact • Transition the capability to ingest the MODIS SST composites to Miami WFO • Integrate LIS soil moisture representation into system

  5. What is the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed? EFP EWP Both a facility and an organization… - The facility is located on the second floor of the new NWC, between the SPC and WFO OUN operational forecasting areas. - An organization that supports and promotes collaborative research activities between NSSL, SPC, OUN, and the broader meteorological community. Two Main Program Areas… Experimental Forecast Program Experimental Warning Program

  6. Hazardous Weather Testbed Benefits • The close working relationship between operational and research meteorologists has fostered • Increased appreciation by Research Meteorologists of forecaster insights, and operational constraints and requirements • Education of Operational Meteorologists about NWP models, other research and diagnostic tools, and application of scientific knowledge to severe weather forecasting • Accelerated transfer of useful new technologies, products and diagnostic / prediction tools from research to operations

  7. Proposed HWT Activities:Spring Program 2007 • Annual SPC/NSSL Spring Program • First year of multi-year effort (2007-2009) • Contributing Partners: SPC, NSSL, CAPS, EMC, NCAR, OUN (unique diversity of backgrounds and expertise) • Scientific Objectives: • Improve high resolution WRF models • Further explore impacts of various physics (PBL, microphysics, etc.) on high-res WRF forecasts • Pre-convective environment, PBL sounding structure, and convective storms • Continue investigating impact of resolution on WRF simulation of stormscale structures (e.g., supercells, bow echoes, etc.)

  8. Proposed HWT Activities:Spring Program 2007 • Scientific Objectives (cont’d) • Begin to explore development and utility of a daily high resolution convection-allowing 10 member WRF ensemble in short-term (12-30h) prediction of severe convection • Investigate IC versus physics spread in convection-allowing ensemble • Explore understanding of physics on ensemble performance • Environment; convective initiation, intensity and mode • Compare to “higher” resolution deterministic WRF • 2 km WRF (CAPS) and 3 km WRF (NCAR) • Begin developing interrogation tools to extract ensemble-based information for a variety of hazardous weather events

  9. Collaboration With SPoRT….

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