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Appropriate models in DSSs for river basin management

This study explores the use of an appropriateness framework to obtain appropriate models for decision support systems (DSSs) in river basin management. The study discusses the framework, models used, results, and conclusions.

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Appropriate models in DSSs for river basin management

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  1. Appropriate models in DSSs for river basin management Yueping Xu Martijn J.Booij

  2. Contents • Introduction • Appropriateness framework (theory) • Models description • Results • Conclusions

  3. Introduction • The definition of appropriateness • Produce final model outputs which enable decision makers to distinguish or rank different management options (measures) under uncertainty • Aim: obtain appropriate models for DSSs Introduction Appropriateness framework Models Results Conclusions

  4. Fig. 1 • Appropriateness framework (Fig. 1) • Uncertainty analysis • Multiple comparison procedures • Sensitivity analysis Introduction Appropriateness framework Models Results Conclusions

  5. Model description • Flood frequency model • Hydraulic model • Inundation model • Flood damage model • Risk model • In total, 112 inputs and parameters • Decision variable: • Expected annual damage (EAD) Introduction Appropriateness framework Models Results Conclusions

  6. Results • Uncertainty sources: • Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) • 112 inputs and parameters, normal or uniform distributions • Multiple comparison method: • The Tukey-Kramer method • Sensitivity analysis • The Morris’ Method Introduction Appropriateness framework Models Results Conclusions

  7. Results Fig. 2: Fitted normal Distributions (5 measures) Probability EAD in million euros Introduction Appropriateness framework Models Results Conclusions

  8. Results from inappropriate models Fig. 3: Tukey-Kramer results Measures EAD in million euros Introduction Appropriateness framework Models Results Conclusions

  9. Results from appropriate models Fig. 4: Tukey-kramer results after model improvements (by reducing uncertainty in the most important parameters identified by SA) Measures EAD in million euros Introduction Appropriateness framework Models Results Conclusions

  10. Conclusions • The appropriateness framework works quite well in this case. • Is the mean value a good criterion for a ranking of measures? • Does the model improvements by uncertainty reduction always work? Introduction Appropriateness framework Models Results Conclusions

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