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Model collaboration, coordination and… the Model Web for ecological forecasting

Model collaboration, coordination and… the Model Web for ecological forecasting. From Yesterday. Need to assess impacts of change… “A new generation of integrated modeling is needed” (Tony Janetos) “Major investment in impact models is needed”

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Model collaboration, coordination and… the Model Web for ecological forecasting

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  1. Model collaboration, coordination and…the Model Webfor ecological forecasting

  2. From Yesterday Need to assess impacts of change… • “A new generation of integrated modeling is needed” (Tony Janetos) • “Major investment in impact models is needed” • “Need integrated research” (Ex: biofuels/food/crop) • Need “Model comparisons…multi-model analyses…coordinated agenda” • “Need to develop an infrastructure” • “Need to investigate alternative futures” • “Need a new NASA program”

  3. Overview • Bring people together • Review Model Web concept • Discuss strawperson approach to doing it • Focus on: Initial Framework Infrastructure • Right models? • Right people?

  4. Current Modeling Environment • Very limited model-model communication • Technical and especially non-technical barriers • Response • Try a “web of models” analogous to the WWW • Can’t just plan and build it • Facilitate and encourage

  5. Demonstration System Global Climate Dataset TOPS Species Distribution Model Regional Climate Dataset Species distribution

  6. System Growth Global Climate Dataset TOPS Fire Model Species Distribution Model Regional Climate Dataset Species distribution

  7. System Growth Global Climate Dataset Fire risk, Intensity, etc Possible Landscapes TOPS Fire Model Landscape Model Species Distribution Model Regional Climate Dataset Species distribution

  8. Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (1/2) • Distributed network of interoperating models (and datasets and sensors) • Using web services • Models are harmonized • Multi-disciplinary scope

  9. Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (2/2) • Grows organically within framework of broad goals and data exchange standards • Models and datasets maintained, operated, and served independently • Web access provided to researchers, managers, policy makers, public

  10. Model and Data Space Model A Model G Model B Dataset 1 Model C Dataset 3 Portal Model D Dataset 2 Portal Model F Dataset 4 Model E

  11. Next Step • Think about an initial “framework infrastructure” • Expand demo system • Include additional basic components

  12. Strawperson Initial Framework Infrastructure Role TBD All kinds of data Community-level Biodiversity (Ferrier) Socio-economic Public Health • Landscape • Ecotype • Tree density • Biomass • Disturbance • Succession • Composition • Fire • Risk • Frequency • Intensity • Behavior • Emissions Environment (eg, TOPS) • Carbon • Accounting • Allocation • Flows • Sequestration Species Distribution Species Abundance Invasive Species Ecosystem Services

  13. Selection Criteria • Model developer is engaged • Model developer is broad thinker and shares vision of a model infrastructure • Models have potential for harmonization

  14. Related Topic • Chris Field and Modeling Breakout group • Coordination in assessing impact of change • Would enhance application of model results • Form a working group?

  15. Next Steps • Expand demo system to Initial framework system • Finalize models and participants • Submit proposals? • Plan Model Web Workshop • Impact modeling WG for coordination?

  16. Principle of Gradual Convergence • Vision cannot be achieved quickly • Gradually converged upon • Cannot be achieved completely • Not necessary • Follow path of organic growth • Organized around general framework • Facilitated by tools and technologies • Lubricated by interested sponsors

  17. Barriers to Interoperability • Data format • Data terminology • Missing data • Temporal/spatial gridding • Standards • Sponsor goals • Model purpose • Effort required • Proprietariness • Acceptance • Cultural differences } Technical } Non-technical

  18. Larger infrastructure All kinds of data • Socioeconomic • Poverty • Technology • Economy • Behavior Human Population Density and Distribution Includes vectors & hosts • Species & Habitat • Range • Abundance • Functions • Interactions • Regional Environmental • Change • Habitat Alteration • Deforestation/Disturbance • Agricultural Intensification • Urbanization • Fire • Carbon • Landscape • Ecosystem Services Global Climate These interact Local/Regional Climate Public Health

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